NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Three
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
| Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00 PM | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 43 | 17.5 | -8 | 43 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.2 | 24 | 31 | 15 | Offense | 20.4 | 23 | 14 | 25 | |
| Defense | 20.4 | 23 | 14 | 25 | Defense | 20.2 | 24 | 31 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | Minnesota Vikings | 9 | 24 | 13 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Patterson | 61 | 30 | 1 | 350 | Johnson | 100 | 57 | 6 | 882 | |
| Jennings | 80 | 50 | 4 | 598 | Tate | 120 | 84 | 3 | 1186 | |
| Johnson | 42 | 21 | 2 | 343 | Ross | 30 | 21 | 1 | 270 | |
| Rudolph | 27 | 17 | 2 | 162 | Pettigrew | 15 | 10 | 0 | 70 | |
Minnesota Vikings
WR Charles Johnson
Johnson is the only Viking I would take a chance on this week, and even he is a tournament-only play. The Lions have contained opposing WRs wonderfully this season and are actually allowing the FEWEST FPPG to the position. Johnson is a tremendous physical talent though, and it’s clear the Vikings coaching staff is attempting to scheme him the ball, even drawing up WR screens for him in recent weeks. Johnson has upside as a tournament dart but his rising price across the industry limits his appeal.
TE Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph is theoretically in play as a punt TE given that the Vikings should be needing to throw often in this game. But his low target totals and inconsistent role severely limit Rudolph’s upside.
Detroit Lions
WR Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson stars in a new edition of the One-Act, Cliff Notes interpretation of last week’s Lions game. Check it out:
BUCS: Halt, Calvin Johnson! You’ll never defeat us! Our defense is IMPROVED
CALVIN JOHNSON: LOL
8 catches, 158 yards, and 1 TD later.
ROLL CREDITS
Riveting, wasn’t it? Calvin has roasted his past two opponents for nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs. And while the Vikings offer a unique challenge to Mr Megatron based on Mike Zimmer’s scheming and emerging stud CB Xavier Rhodes, it is probably a very large mistake to not have exposure to Calvin this week.
RB Joique Bell
Joique Bell beasted again last week. And by ‘beasted’ I mean ‘had a strong game and then caught a tipped pass for a complete fluke TD’. Nonetheless, Bell has cranked out 20+ touches and 100 total yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and is finally looking like the RB we thought he was prior to the season. With the Lions favored and the Vikings run defense wimping out lately (124.3 rushing yards per game over their last 4), expect heavy doses of Bell this week. He’s a strong play in all formats.
QB Matt Stafford
Stafford has been strong of late, but faces a tough test from the Vikings, who have been surprisingly strong against the pass this season. They grade out as the 10th-best coverage squad on PFF and allow the 4th-fewest FPPG to QBs. Vegas still has the Lions pegged as 8-point favorites, but doesn’t see much scoring in the game overall. A Stafford/Calvin stack is always a weekly tournament consideration, but rostering the Lions QB in cash games is unnecessary.
WR Golden Tate
Tate has been a strong complement to Calvin Johnson in Detroit. Unfortunately, the stretch where Calvin was hurt and Tate was the #1 WR still has his price inflated relative to his opportunities and usage now that Calvin is back. Tate’s lack of opportunities makes him just a contrarian tournament play this week.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
| Oakland Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sun – 1:00 PM | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 41.5 | 15.5 | -10.5 | 41.5 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.4 | 31 | 28 | 32 | Offense | 22.4 | 16 | 27 | 3 | |
| Defense | 22.4 | 16 | 27 | 3 | Defense | 15.4 | 31 | 28 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | Oakland Raiders | 18 | 29 | 6 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 92 | 62 | 4 | 589 | Bowe | 75 | 48 | 0 | 598 | |
| Holmes | 74 | 37 | 4 | 540 | Avery | 26 | 15 | 0 | 176 | |
| Moore | 27 | 12 | 0 | 115 | Thomas | 17 | 12 | 0 | 79 | |
| Rivera | 76 | 48 | 4 | 464 | Kelce | 66 | 51 | 4 | 688 | |
Oakland Raiders
RB Latavius Murray
The Raiders ACTUALLY have a viable DFS play again! At least Raiders fans have something to be thankful for this holiday season. The Thursday-night hero from Week 12 ripped off 100+ yards and 2TDs on FOUR CARRIES in that game, and is a size/speed freak of nature that should again challenge the weak Chiefs run defense. The Chiefs allow a misleading 3rd-fewest FPPG to RBs, fueled primarily by a lack of TDs. They also allow 105 rushing yards per game and have been absolutely gashed by several RBs over the past several weeks, including allowing practice-squad player Kerwynn Williams to become the first Cardinals RB to hit 100 rushing yards this season. Murray should feast on this wimpy run defense, and is a high upside salary relief RB.
Kansas City Chiefs
RB Jamaal Charles
Charles appears to be being overlooked yet AGAIN this week, despite facing the 2nd-most favorable matchup for RBs. Don’t forget, Charles ripped the Raiders for 122 total yards and 1 TD just a few weeks ago, and wasn’t even heavily used due to the game script. Coaches are saying that Charles will be in line for his usual heavy workload this week (which is kind of funny since they RARELY give him enough touches), and if he sees 20+ touches he’ll have a serious chance to be the top-scoring RB this week.
TE Travis Kelce
Kelce FINALLY got the targets and usage we’ve been clamoring for last week. But trusting Andy Reid to employ Kelce in such a logical manner for a second straight game, and against a weak opponent, is a risky endeavor. I would only use Kelce on tournament rosters until we see sustained opportunities and production.
WR Dwayne Bowe
Dwayne Bowe might be the most boring #1 WR in the NFL. There are better matchup-based WRs this week.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
| Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00 PM | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 48 | 20.25 | -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.2 | 12 | 16 | 13 | Offense | 30.8 | 3 | 5 | 17 | |
| Defense | 30.8 | 3 | 5 | 17 | Defense | 24.2 | 12 | 16 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 13 | 20 | 5 | 24 | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 19 | 12 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wallace | 102 | 57 | 7 | 700 | Edelman | 124 | 85 | 3 | 884 | |
| Landry | 83 | 63 | 5 | 573 | LaFell | 95 | 57 | 7 | 753 | |
| Hartline | 54 | 34 | 2 | 380 | Amendola | 23 | 14 | 1 | 102 | |
| Clay | 61 | 41 | 2 | 387 | Gronkowski | 113 | 73 | 10 | 997 | |
Miami Dolphins
WR Mike Wallace & Jarvis Landry
It’s hard to endorse either of the Dolphins WRs this week. Reports suggest that Jarvis Landry will be locked up with Pats shutdown CB Darrelle Revis, and Mike Wallace should see press coverage from big-bodied CB Brandon Browner with constant safety help over the top. I would target Wallace over Landry, but would prefer to avoid the situation entirely.
RB Lamar Miller
The most viable Dolphins play this week is RB Lamar Miller. The Pats allow the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs, and with the Dolphins passing attack likely to struggle against the Pats strong secondary, there should be plenty of carries for Miller. He’s a tournament RB that will be largely overlooked.
New England Patriots
TE Rob Gronkowski
I listed Gronk as the top TE to target in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down over at RotoWorld. Check it out here.
QB Tom Brady
Brady is more of a contrarian, tournament-only option against this Dolphins squad that limits QBs to the 2nd-fewest FPPG and grades out as PFF”s 2nd-best pass-rush.
WR Julian Edelman
Edelman had a monstrous Week 14 that nobody seems to be talking about, ripping the Chargers for 8-141-1 on 12 targets. He should again see plenty of looks with Tom Brady needing to get the ball out quick against the Dolphins fearsome pass rush, and is a strong option on full PPR sites.
WR Brandon LaFell
LaFell had an unspectacular 4-41 last week but again gets a strong matchup against either Cortland Finnegan (who may return from injury) of RJ Stafford (who the Fins signed off the street a few weeks ago). LaFell’s big play upside and solid matchup makes him a tournament option this week.
Patriots RBs, aka How to Raise Your Blood Pressure
I prefer LeGarrette Blount to the other Pats RBs this week. Blount ground out 22 more touches last week and appears cemented into the power-RB role for the Pats. He should be a high-floor play against a Dolphins squad that has been crumbling against the run of late.
NFL Grind Down Page 3 – Page 4
