NFL Grind Down: Week 16

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-26 17:31:16

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers

San Diego Chargers						San Francisco 49ers
Sat – 4:30 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	41.5	19.75				-2	41.5	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	17	9	31		Offense	17.9	28	25	22
Defense	17.9	28	25	22		Defense	21.6	17	9	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	4	10	5	16		San Diego Chargers	18	14	17	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	121	77	4	783		Boldin	113	74	4	920
Floyd	74	45	5	777		Crabtree	103	63	4	652
Royal	71	48	6	589		Johnson	50	35	3	435
Gates	82	58	10	662		Davis	48	25	2	236

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total limits appeal
•49ers offense is in complete shambles

San Diego Chargers

TE Antonio Gates

Gates continued his Bronco-beating ways last week, leading the Chargers in basically every statistical category with 6 catches, 54 yards, and 1 TD. Even when little else is working for the Chargers, the Rivers-Gates connection remains strong. Gates is arguably the top Chargers player to target this week, especially considering the 49ers situation at linebacker. Though they’ve maintained an imposing DVP ranking vs TEs (8th-fewest FPPG allowed), most of that is from early season success thanks to All-World LB Patrick Willis (now on IR) and from facing a few non-factor TEs of late — the truth is that the 49ers are VERY deficient when covering TEs. To make matters worse, the 49ers will further shuffle their already barren LB corps this week due to stud rookie Chris Borland’s injury.

Antonio Gates vs the 49ers 4th- and 5th-string MLBs? Yes please. Gates is a top-4 TE this week.

QB Philip Rivers

Rivers struggled against an elite secondary for the second straight week, completing just 58% of his passes for 232 yards, 1 TD, and a pair of INTs vs the Broncos. While the 49ers don’t have the individual CB talent that the Patriots or the Broncos do, they still sport an incredibly tough team secondary that grades out as the 7th-best coverage unit on PFF, and has limited opposing QBs to the 5th-fewest FPPG. It’s worth considering how much ‘fight’ this 49ers team has left with their playoff hopes crushed, their coach likely on his way out, and injuries mounting. Rivers is a very contrarian option, but doesn’t have an inspiring matchup and should be avoided in cash games.

Chargers WRs

The Injury to Keenan Allen removes the only semi-consistent threat from the Chargers WR corps, but should also theoretically provide the remaining two featured WRs (Eddie Royal, Malcom Floyd) with additional opportunities. Can they take advantage against a stifling 49ers pass defense? The Niners are top-10 in both yards and receptions allowed per game. However, they’ve also been dealing with multiple injuries at CB. Top CB Chris Culliver missed last week, and while 4th-round rookie Dontae Johnson played reasonably well, the Seahawks aren’t exactly a dangerous passing attack. But the Chargers can be. I wouldn’t target Keenan Allen’s replacement, Seyi Arijotutu, but both Royal and Floyd have some tournament potential.

RB Branden Oliver/Donald Brown

With Ryan Mathews out last week, Oliver and Brown handled the backfield work – but not evenly. Oliver ground out 16 touches to Brown’s 9, and while both RBs hauled in 4 catches a piece, Oliver saw more than twice as many carries (12 vs 5). Neither RB got much done with their carries, though, against the Broncos front that has stifled opposing RBs all season. The Niners have also been extremely effective against the run, grading out as PFF”s 6th-best run defense squad (Broncos were 3rd) and allowing just the 4th-fewest FPPG to RBs. There is an interesting sliver of hope here, though. The 49ers released DE Ray McDonald this week, who was the 49er’s 4th-best run defender, and the 11th-best at his position, per PFF. But most importantly, the Niners also lost stud rookie LB Chris Borland. Borland was mentioned above in Gates’ section, but his true strength is defending the run – he’s PFF’s TOP run-defending ILB. The impact of these two losses should be immense. The Chargers workload semi-split limits both players’ upside, but I think the 49ers defensive losses solidify the Chargers RBs as salary relief candidates.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

The 49ers offense has been an absolute disaster lately, and Kaep hasn’t been able to do anything to change that. He’s now thrown for less than 200 yards in THREE straight games, and has only 1 TD over that span. Heck, his 46 rushing yards last week were probably the highlight of his play for the last month plus. Even with the Chargers allowing the 10th-most FPPG to QBs, it’s just impossible to play Kaepernick with how he’s throwing the ball right now.

WR Anquan Boldin / Michael Crabtree

Crab and Boldin combined for 5-42 last week, and have predictably failed to produce lately given the 49ers struggles at QB. I do think the duo are a little more relevant than their ‘MUST AVOID’ status last week, but in general you can do a lot better at WR this week.

49ers RBs

Both Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde are questionable to play this week, with some very unfavorable reports coming out (about Hyde in particular) about their prospects. If either RB IS able to play and isn’t reported to be limited, they would be an under-the-radar option against a Chargers squad that grades out as the 13th-worst run-defense squad and allows the 12th-most FPPG to opposing RBs. It’s a middle-of-the-road matchup, but both RBs come awfully cheap – Hyde in particular would be an interesting option with the workload to himself.

If NEITHER RB is able to go, that likely leaves either Alfonso Smith or Phillip Tanner to handle most of the work. The correct response to reading those two names is, ‘yikes.’ Smith is by no means a talented runner, but he did see a few carries last week after the injuries struck. Even bad RBs are valuable in DFS when they’re minimum-priced though, so keep an eye on the injury news because a viable value play will almost certainly emerge in SF this Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles						Washington Redskins
Sat – 4:30 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-9	50.5	29.75				9	50.5	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	29.7	4	13	8		Offense	18.4	26	18	16
Defense	18.4	26	18	16		Defense	29.7	4	13	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	31	2	28	28		Philadelphia Eagles	30	22	30	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	131	78	10	1207		Jackson	86	50	5	957
Matthews	88	56	7	709		Garcon	95	62	3	638
Cooper	84	48	1	487		Roberts	68	34	2	432
Celek	50	30	0	324		Reed	51	39	0	390

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total with the Eagles heavily favored
•Vegas doesn’t trust the RG3-led Redskins offense
•LeSean McCoy may have lost his goal-line duties

Philadelphia Eagles

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin is in an excellent spot to be both one of the top scoring WRs of Week 16, and one of the best values in DFS. First, the matchup. The Redskins are beyond atrocious in coverage, and are fresh off being completely dismembered for 12 catches, 143 yards, and THREE TDs by Odell Beckham last week. Both of their outside CBs are in the bottom-15 in terms of PFF coverage grades, and have given up over 1400 yards and 11 combined TDs. This one is a no-brainer: Maclin is a high-floor/high-ceiling play who is suitable for all game types.

WR Jordan Matthews

Matthews should also be in line for a strong performance. Redskins slot man EJ Biggers owns a bottom-20 coverage grade despite playing half the snaps of most qualifier cornerbacks. Matthews also comes with recency bias upside – Matthews was shut out last week and was held to just 2-23 the week prior. That’s enough for him to be a forgotten man in DFS, leaving him with a likely ownership incongruent with the quality of his matchup. Despite the past two weeks, Matthews is a fixture of this passing attack and is a strong salary relief option thanks to the matchup.

QB Mark Sanchez

Sanchez’s mediocrity last week looked awfully familiar, as some questionable decision-making and simply bad throws slowly damned the Eagles hopes of toppling their division rivals. But for as badly as I want to swear off Sanchez following a few weeks of poor – we need to seriously consider him as a tournament option against the helpless Redskins. One of the most reliable QB matchups in DFS, even Eli Manning found success against the Redskins last week. They grade out as the WORST coverage squad on PFF, and allow the 2nd-most FPPG to opposing QBs. Their inability to cover, and propensity for allowing big plays makes it frankly dangerous not to take players against them on a weekly basis. I’d prefer to take the Eagles WRs instead, but Sanchez makes for a high-ceiling tournament play.

LeSean McCoy

McCoy was a massive let down last week, after he tallied just 65 total yards against the defense he sliced for 159 yards in their previous meeting. Of larger concern was that #2 RB Chris Polk vultured 2 close TDs, and McCoy suggested this week that he has been operating as the goal-line back in practice. If Polk indeed has been installed as the primary goal-line pounder, McCoy’s value and upside takes a definite hit. The matchup is a bit of a concern as well. The Redskins bottled up another running game last week (Andre Williams, 18-44) and maintain a lofty DVP vs RBs (6th-fewest FPPG allowed). As I mention every week, they still curiously grade out as a poor run-defending squad (7th-worst run-defense grade on PFF), but given how completely atrocious their pass defense is, teams simply aren’t needing to attack heavily on the ground. With a tough matchup and potential loss of goal-line work, Shady is no more than a contrarian tournament option.

Washington Redskins

WR DeSean Jackson

Narrative Street Alert: DJAX REVENGE GAME
RADTHAD NARRATIVE STREET INDEX: 8

DJax ended up playing last week but failed to produce any plays of note despite leading his team in targets. But even with a struggling RG3 at the helm, DJax has tournament appeal this week against his former team, whom he torched for 5-117-1 earlier this season. A motivated Jackson is a very dangerous Jackson, especially considering the complete ineptitude of the Eagles CBs. He is a high-ceiling tournament play.

TE Jordan Reed

The entire Redskins passing attack struggled last week, but Reed will continue to be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. The Eagles have been excellent against TEs (FEWEST FPPG allowed), but have also shown some vulnerability when they face a true featured TE (e.g. Greg Olsen). Reed wasn’t active the last time these teams met, but #2 TE Niles Paul (who is also an athletic mismatch) had 6 catches for 68 yards. With Reed’s price remaining depressed throughout the industry, he makes a solid salary relief option.

QB Robert Griffin III

RG3 figures to again handle the QB duties for the Redskins this week (whether HC Jay Gruden likes it or not). He draws a quietly favorable matchup against an Eagles squad that has allowed the 3rd-most FPPG. Griffin was able to supplement his modest passing day with 46 rushing yards last week – the rushing potential and favorable matchup makes him a viable salary relief QB this week.

RB Alfred Morris

Even with RG3 back at QB (which has historically been very good for his production), Alf Morris had another zzzzzzzzzzz performance with just 49 yards against the Giants limp run defense last week. He was able to grind out 77 yards in these teams prior meeting, but Philly plays quietly strong run defense (in games that don’t involve DeMarco Murray). Alf is volume and TD-dependent, and has been getting neither lately. His ceiling is limited this week.

WR Pierre Garcon

With a full complement of healthy weapons and RG3’s unreliable QB play, Garcon isn’t an appealing option.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2