NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Three
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
| Minnesota Vikings | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00 PM | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 42.5 | 18 | -6.5 | 42.5 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 23 | 30 | 15 | Offense | 23.4 | 12 | 16 | 17 | |
| Defense | 23.4 | 12 | 16 | 17 | Defense | 19.8 | 23 | 30 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 20 | 16 | 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 11 | 21 | 12 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 49 | 26 | 2 | 415 | Wallace | 109 | 62 | 8 | 804 | |
| Jennings | 85 | 53 | 5 | 641 | Landry | 94 | 71 | 5 | 672 | |
| Wright | 56 | 36 | 1 | 527 | Hartline | 56 | 34 | 2 | 380 | |
| Rudolph | 34 | 24 | 2 | 231 | Clay | 68 | 47 | 2 | 446 | |
Quick Grind
•Limited options on both sides
•Target: Lamar Miller
| Core Plays: | None |
| Secondary Plays: | MIA RB Lamar Miller, MIA WR Jarvis Landry, Dolphins Defense |
| GPP Plays: | MIA WR Mike Wallace, MIN RB Matt Asiata, MIN WR Charles Johnson, MIA QB Ryan Tannehill, |
| Salary Relief: | MIN RB Matt Asiata |
Minnesota Vikings
RB Matt Asiata — $4500 DK — #18 RB— 9% OF CAP — 2.9% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#15 RB)
I hate Matt Asiata. But I also love him. He’s slow, has limited physical talent, and unimpressive vision; he’s basically a large, talentless bruiser. But he also has the complete faith of the Vikings in the most crucial situations, which has meant he gets the call literally EVERY time they’re near the goal-line. He also has at least 3 catches in each of the last 6 games. Matt Asiata actually has some upside folks. And now Asiata faces the smoldering ashes of a Dolphins run defense that has allowed an NFL-leading 137.7 rushing yards per game over their last 3 games. He might not punch in his usual 3 TDs, but Asiata is a very sneaky salary relief RB this week.
WR Charles X Johnson — $4900 DK — #27 WR — 9.8% OF CAP — 2.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#31 WR)
Johnson continues to show us what’s possible when teams actually admit their season is over and start showcasing their young talent. CX had a solid 5-72 against a tough Lions defense last week, and should continue to be the Vikings featured receiver and big-play threat. He’ll draw Dolphins CB Cortland Finnegan, who allowed just 5 of 10 passes to be completed for 41 yards in his return from injury last week. Johnson is a tournament option.
Miami Dolphins
WR Mike Wallace — $5200 DK — #26 WR — 10.4% OF CAP — 3.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#22 WR)
After a season of missed connections and dropped TDs, of COURSE Wallace and Tannehill connect on one vs the Pats elite secondary. Why the Pats had someone named ‘Malcolm Butler’ covering Wallace is one of the NFL’s great mysteries, but the TD was progress nonetheless. Be careful chasing last week with Wallace though, as the Vikings play surprisingly tight pass defense. Prior to last week, the Vikings had been playing sides with emerging elite CB Xavier Rhodes, but they put him in shadow coverage of Calvin Johnson last week and managed to neutralize Johnson that way. Obviously Calvin and Mike Wallace are two fundamentally different talents, but Rhodes has prototypical size AND prototypical athleticism – if he shadows Wallace he could shut him down. Given the risk I would avoid Wallace altogether, but at least we know the deep shots are going to keep coming regardless of the coverage.
WR Jarvis Landry — $5300 DK — #24 WR — 10.6% OF CAP — 3.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#30 WR)
Landry continued his strong rookie season with 8-99 against the Pats. This week he’ll draw the mercurial and awesomely-named Vikings CB Captain Munnerlyn. Munnerlyn was one of the top slot cover men in 2013 but has been inconsistent this season. It’s hard to bet against Landry at this point, but, as usual, I would prefer to target him on full PPR sites
RB Lamar Miller — $4400 DK — #21 RB— 8.8% OF CAP — 6.0% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#10 RB)
Lamar Miller is the ‘Roomba’ of NFL RBs. He zips around for 15-18 touches, then returns to the docking station. The Dolphins coaches simply refuse to give him more work. That usage hasn’t been enough for Miller to crack 60 rushing yards against rugged defenses like DEN, NYJ, and BAL, but his production should see a boost against a Vikings squad allowing the 8th-most rushing yards per game (110.7) over their last 3. Miller is a top-20ish RB.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
| Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00 PM | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 56 | 25 | -6 | 56 | 31 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.9 | 10 | 7 | 23 | Offense | 26.0 | 9 | 5 | 10 | |
| Defense | 26.0 | 9 | 5 | 10 | Defense | 24.9 | 10 | 7 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 28 | 29 | 25 | 10 | Atlanta Falcons | 21 | 32 | 27 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 147 | 93 | 6 | 1428 | Colston | 81 | 51 | 4 | 771 | |
| White | 103 | 66 | 7 | 762 | Stills | 68 | 52 | 3 | 781 | |
| Douglas | 61 | 42 | 2 | 481 | Meachem | 18 | 5 | 0 | 85 | |
| Toilolo | 46 | 25 | 2 | 207 | Graham | 106 | 73 | 9 | 782 | |
Quick Grind
•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target EVERYONE!
•Entire Saints offense is in play
•Keep an eye on Julio Jones’ health
| Top Plays (Saints): | Entire Saints offense |
| Top Plays (Falcons): | ATL QB Matt Ryan, ATL WR Roddy White & Harry Douglas (if Julio Jones is OUT) |
| GPP Plays: | NO RB Pierre Thomas, ATL WR Devin Hester. NO WR Nick Toon |
| Salary Relief: | NO WR Kenny Stills, ATL QB Matt Ryan, ATL WR Harry Douglas, NO WR Nick Toon |
Atlanta Falcons
The Julio Jones Domino Effect
Julio— $7700 DK — #9 WR — 15.4% OF CAP — 2.0% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#37 WR)
Roddy— $6600 DK — #14 WR — 13.2% OF CAP — 6.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#14 WR)
Harry— $5600 DK — #22 WR — 11.2% OF CAP — 4.6% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#20 WR)
SUN AM Injury Update: Julio made it through a walkthrough Saturday, and reports this morning suggest the team is optimistic he’ll be able to play. Keep an eye on the news though because he still needs to pass a PREGAME test before we’ll know if he plays.
Julio Jones’ health AGAIN impacts the value of the entire Falcons offense immensely this week.
Assuming Julio isn’t limited when he plays, he’ll immediately become a top-5 WR option against a Saints secondary that has hemorrhaged the 6th-most FPPG to WRs. Julio diced these Saints for 7-116 in Week 1, feasting on the CBs opposite Keenan Lewis.
Things get more interesting if Julio DOESN’T play. Last week we basically saw everybody get in on the act against a horrid Steelers secondary. Harry Douglas led the group with 10-131, Roddy White contributed a solid 7-58-1, and even Devin Hester got in on the fun with an out-of-nowhere 5-85-1. No Julio means the trio would again each see increased looks, and in a crucial game that has a massive 56-point Vegas total, any they each become viable plays.
QB Matt Ryan — $7400 DK — #7 QB — 14.8% OF CAP — 5.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#6 QB)
Ryan surprisingly had a strong Week 15 despite being without his top weapon. With another weak secondary on deck (Saints allow the 8th-most FPPG to QBs), Ryan is in play as a tournament option regardless of Julio’s health.
New Orleans Saints
QB Drew Brees — $8300 DK — #4 QB — 16.6% OF CAP — 10.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#2 QB)
I pegged Brees as my top QB of Week 15, and boy, it’s easy to look good recommending QBs against the Bears. Brees undressed the Bears for 375 yards and 3 TDs. Now he goes from facing one abysmal secondary (3rd-worst coverage grade on PFF) to facing another in the Falcons (2nd-worst coverage grade). Considering the monstrous Vegas total and implications of this game, Brees is again among my top QBs.
TE Jim Graham — $6300 DK — #2 TE — 12.6% OF CAP — 6.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#5 TE)
Graham was one of the featured TEs in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on RotoWorld. Check it out here.
WR Kenny Stills — $5700 DK — #20 WR — 11.4% OF CAP — 17.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#2 WR)
Stills is a unique animal in that he’s relatively cheap for a #1 WR, which allows you to create a high-upside Saints stack at a
lower price than stacks with other elite QBs. This is a perfect opportunity to do so.
RB #AngryIngram — $6100 DK — #10 RB— 12.2% OF CAP — 9.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#6 RB)
The only worry with the Saints passing attack this week is that they will simply maul the Falcons on the ground instead. The Falcons remain the most favorable matchup for RBs, allowing the MOST FPPG to the position. We’ve targeted RBs against the Falcons alllll season long, and this week is no different. Ingram is a top-10 RB play.
WR Marques Colston — $4600 DK — #31 WR — 9.2% OF CAP — 9.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#9 WR)
Colston should also feast on the weak Falcons secondary this week. While he doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as teammate Kenny Stills, Colston is a solid bet for 60-80 yards and a possible TD.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
| New England Patriots | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | 47 | 28.5 | 10 | 47 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.6 | 1 | 6 | 12 | Offense | 16.2 | 30 | 32 | 7 | |
| Defense | 16.2 | 30 | 32 | 7 | Defense | 31.6 | 1 | 6 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 29 | 4 | 19 | 30 | New England Patriots | 17 | 16 | 6 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Edelman | 134 | 92 | 4 | 972 | Decker | 91 | 58 | 4 | 657 | |
| LaFell | 103 | 63 | 7 | 819 | Harvin | 68 | 46 | 1 | 437 | |
| Amendola | 24 | 15 | 1 | 113 | Kerley | 62 | 29 | 1 | 256 | |
| Gronkowski | 121 | 76 | 11 | 1093 | Cumberland | 36 | 17 | 1 | 176 | |
Quick Grind
•Patriots heavily favored – avoid the Jets
•Target the Patriots passing attack
| Core Plays: | NE QB Tom Brady, NE TE Rob Gronkowski, |
| Secondary Plays: | NE WR Julian Edelman & Brandon LaFell |
| GPP Plays: | NE RB Shane Vereen, NYJ WR Eric Decker/Percy Harvin |
| Salary Relief: | NE RB Shane Vereen |
New England Patriots
TE Rob Gronkowski — $7000 DK — #1 TE — 14% OF CAP — 17.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#1 TE)
Lord Gronk was the top TE as usual in the RotoWorld WR/TE Grind Down:
SEE everybody, I told you we didn’t need to worry about the scary Dolphins DVP. Gronk conquers all. And now he wants to give us all our Christmas presents early: a matchup against a helpless Jets squad that allows the 3rd-most FPPG to TEs and has coughed up an absurd 12 TDs to the position. There’s no extra analysis necessary here: G-R-O-N-K GRONK! GRONK! GRONK!
QB Tom Brady — $8000 DK — #5 QB — 16% OF CAP — 4.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#7 QB)
The Jets allow the MOST FPPG to opposing QBs. Brady dropped 261 yards and 3 TDs on them in Week 7, and hasn’t thrown for less than 245 yards and at least 2 TDs since. Don’t think too much about this – Brady is a top-5 QB this week.
WR Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell
Edelman— $6500 DK — #16 WR — 13% OF CAP — 5.1% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#17 WR)
LaFell— $5300 DK — #23 WR — 10.6% OF CAP — 5.1% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#18 WR)
SUN AM Injury Update: Julian Edelman didn’t even fly with the team and is OUT this week. LaFell and Gronk are further solidified, and Danny Amendola is now in play as a sneaky salary relief option
I really like both Edelman and LaFell as upside plays this week, and listed them as ‘Next Best Things’ in the RW WR/TE GrindDown:
“Edelman & LaFell are both #GrindDown Matchup Hammers against the Jets. They’ll draw the coverage of a ‘Darrin Walls’ and a ‘Marcus Williams’ this week. You’ve never heard of them because they’re not good players; both were undrafted, and signed off the street by the Jets as injuries mounted in their secondary. Now they have the unenviable task of slowing down a red-hot Pats offense. You can’t go wrong with either WR, but the nature of their production thus far suggests that Edelman is the preferred cash game play due to his higher floor. LaFell, on the other hand, is best suited to tournaments due to his big-play potential and high-ceiling. Both are great plays against this wimpy secondary.”
Patriots RBs, aka How to Raise Your Blood Pressure
Vereen — $3800 DK — #29 RB— 7.6% OF CAP — .8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#29 RB)
Just when we thought it might be safe to just roll out LeGarrette Blount as the Patriots power RB every week, Jonas Gray rose from the dead to hammer out 62 yards on 11 touches last week. So what does this mean for the backfield split going forward? I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA. There’s no sense in playing the guessing game this week either, as the top-graded Jets run-defense should foil any plans the Pats have of establishing a traditional running game.
You know what that means: it’s a Shane Vereen game! Vereen exploded for 114 total yards and 2 TDs on 16 touches the last time these teams met, in what was the first game the Pats were without regular hammer back Stevan Ridley. Given the Jets coverage liabilities Vereen presents another mismatch for Tom Brady to work with. Though Vereen hasn’t been very productive since the entire Pats receiving corps (Edelman, LaFell, Gronk) started clicking, this week is his best chance to see the majority of the backfield touches. He’s a sneaky #2 RB play on full PPR sites.
New York Jets
RB Chris Johnson & Chris Ivory
CJ— $3800 DK — #28 RB— 7.6% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA RB)
Ivory- $3800 DK — #28 RB— 7.6% OF CAP — .9% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#28 RB)
Chris Squared seriously underwhelmed against the porous-beyond-words Titans run defense last week, suffering from stacked boxes all game. I don’t anticipate the going will get easier this week, as although the Pats appear to be a weak run defense, they’ve actually allowed just 52.2 rushing yards per game over their last 5 (2nd-fewest). You can do much better than a timeshare of RBs facing a rough matchup.
WR Percy Harvin — $4600 DK — #33 WR — 9.2% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA WR)
Harvin was clearly limited last week and may as well have just been a decoy against the Titans. There appears to be little doubt that Harvin will play this week, but in what capacity? Given the injury uncertainty and the Pats elite secondary, I would avoid Harvin until we know he’s healthy.
WR Eric Decker — $4800 DK — #29 WR — 9.6% OF CAP — .7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#50 WR)
Don’t expect a follow up of Decker’s first 100-yard receiving game this week. He managed just 4-65 the last time these teams met… and even that was an impressive feat. Decker struggles against physical man coverage, which the Patriots can bring in spades. Avoid Decker.
NFL Grind Down Page 3 – Page 4
