NFL Grind Down: Week 17

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-31 17:28:04

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: With motivation and playing time such a huge factor in our Week 17 lineup decisions, I’ve included what each team’s motivation appears to be heading into Sunday, along with Adam Levitan’s thoughts from his weekly column. Bookmark his column for an awesome quick reference to each game

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers						Atlanta Falcons
Sun – 1:00 PM						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	47.5	21.75				-4	47.5	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.3	21	16	16		Offense	25.2	9	8	22
Defense	25.2	9	8	22		Defense	20.3	21	16	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	19	32	26	7		Carolina Panthers	21	18	18	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	140	72	9	999		Jones	155	100	6	1535
Cotchery	75	45	1	555		White	112	72	7	817
Brown	35	20	2	268		Douglas	68	46	2	528
Olsen	120	82	6	981		Toilolo	50	29	2	224

Quick Grind

•The winner of this game wins the NFC South
•A top game to target from a motivation standpoint
•Target QB-RB-WR from both teams

Carolina Panthers

Motivation: HIGH (“The winner of this game makes the playoffs and wins the NFC South title.”)

QB Cam Newton

Just weeks after rolling his truck and fracturing two bones in his back, Cam stepped back on a field with NFL defenders and had 12 rushes for 63 yards and a TD. Dude is literally Superman. And after leading his team to a win last week, now a playoff play-in against the Falcons looms. Of course, the Falcons have sucked all season, but somehow harassed Drew Brees last week and forced multiple turnovers in the process. The Panthers have had troubles across their offensive line, but Cam should be all systems go on the ground, which should both raise his floor, and give him access to as high of a ceiling as any QB in Week 17.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Kelvin was one of my top Stack targets this week in the RotoWorld WR/TE GrindDown.

TE Greg Olsen

Olsen devastated the loyal followers who had benefitted from his excellent consistency until last week’s 1-21 letdown. Of course, we’re immune to recency bias here at RG (right?), so we’ll (hopefully) be going right back to the Olsen Consistency Well against the Falcons. Olsen had 5-61 against this crew in Week 11, and as I’ve said repeatedly in this space: they don’t have the personnel to stop top-tier TEs. Olsen is a top-3 TE this week.

RB Jonathan Stewart

J-Stew had another pristine outing vs the Browns last week, with 122 yards on 24 carries, and a receiving TD to boot. While RB DeAngelo Williams is finally Probable this week, he may be inactive regardless. Stewart will be the starter in name and role, and draws the MOST favorable RB matchup this week. He’s a high-floor/high-ceiling RB option.

Atlanta Falcons

Motivation: HIGH (“The winner of this game makes the playoffs and wins the NFC South title.”)

WR Julio Jones

Julio was certainly NOT a decoy WR last week, as he ripped off 7-107 against the Saints despite playing just 48/65 snaps. While the Panthers have finally found steady CB play with Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere… there is just no way their improved play is enough to scare us off Julio this week. He’s an elite top-5 option.

QB Matt Ryan

Due to his certain motivation and solid matchup (Panthers allow 9th-most FPPG to QBs), Ryan is one of the top QB plays of Week 17.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers/Devonta Freeman

After 16 weeks of rolling out a value-crushing multi-headed RB committee, we finally have a scenario where Falcons RBs are viable in DFS. Steven Jackson hasn’t been practicing and isn’t expected to play this week, leaving us Jacquizz Rodgers and Devonta Freeman. So lets review the duo. Rodgers is the veteran of the two, and has primarily been a passing-down ‘weapon’ for the Falcons (50+ receptions in 2012 & 2013), but lacks talent and hasn’t been used much this season (has basically half the touches he had each of the past 2 seasons). Freeman is the rookie, and a much more dynamic talent – he broke multiple big-plays in the pre-season, but hasn’t had many opportunities in this committee until now. Freeman turned just 8 touches into 84 total yards and a TD after Jackson was injured last week, and is the tournament play based on his big-play potential. Unfortunately reports suggest that Rodgers will see the most work based on his pass protection, making him the superior cash game option. Outside their excellent prices, both RBs are in play due to the tasty matchup against a Panthers squad that allows the 4th-most FPPG to RBs.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions						Green Bay Packers
Sun – FLEXED to 4:25 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	48	20.5				-7	48	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.1	22	15	25		Offense	30.4	2	3	12
Defense	30.4	2	3	12		Defense	20.1	22	15	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	10	14	22	12		Detroit Lions	3	6	9	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	118	67	6	1038		Nelson	143	92	13	1433
Tate	137	96	4	1286		Cobb	122	87	10	1207
Ross	33	22	1	281		Adams	66	38	3	446
Pettigrew	15	10	0	70		Quarless	45	29	3	323

Quick Grind

•The winner of this game wins the NFC North AND a 1st-round bye
•Another top motivation game to target
•Target both teams’ passing attacks

Detroit Lions

Motivation: HIGH (“The winner of this game gets a first-round bye and the NFC North title. Loser could fall as low as No. 6 seed.”)

WR Calvin Johnson

We don’t need much analysis here. Calvin has over 450 yards and 3 TDs over his last 4 games, and has smashed the Packers over the last few years (so much so that his 6-82 in Week 3 was actually a letdown). He’s the #2 WR behind Odell Beckham Jr.

RB Joique Bell

Joique has been phenomenal of late, and will look to continue his success against a Packers squad that grades out as a bottom-5 run-defense unit and is allowing the 4th-most rushing yards per game to RBs. Bell is a top-12 RB this week.

QB Matt Stafford

Stafford has been a late-season disaster against his NFC North rivals the past 2 weeks, and now travels to Lambeau Field to face a Packers squad that has been top-10 against QBs over their last 5 games. I understand if folks are a little gunshy with Stafford after his debacle last week, but at the very least we know he and the Lions will be one of only a handful of QBs certain to be playing to win. With Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate at WR, Stafford is always in consideration in tournaments, but his recent volatility makes him too risky for cash games right now.

WR Golden Tate

Tate had a solid but unspectacular 5-51 in these teams’ Week 3 meeting and should see a similar floor this week a Packers team that will sell out to try and stop Calvin Johnson.

Green Bay Packers

Motivation: HIGH (“The winner of this game gets a first-round bye and the NFC North title. Loser could fall as low as No. 6 seed.”)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers performance last week was better than the box score suggested, though the QB did strain his calf in this game. Reports suggest he’ll be good to go but any limitations are worrisome with the Lions #2 graded defense coming. If Rodgers is indeed without physical limitation he’s arguably the top QB of Week 17 considering how unconscious he’s been when playing at home. The Packers offense has basically been unstoppable at home this season, and Rodgers is a top option this week as a result.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy was held to just 5-59 in Week 3’s Packers/Lions tilt, but the entire offense figures to be remarkably more effective on their home field. The Lions have demonstrated effective coverage with their outside CBs all season, but it’s foolish to think they’ll be able to neutralize the Rodgers-Nelson connection completely. Jordy will get his. He’s a top-10 WR this week.

WR Randall Cobb

Cobb finally came through on a strong slot matchup last week as he roasted the Bucs for 11-131 on a whopping 14 targets. He’s got another matchup that should lead to preferential treatment this week against the Lions, who have shuffled their ineffective slot coverage repeatedly this season. If I’m targeting one Packers WR (or player) this week, it’s Cobb on the merit of his matchup. He’s an elite option on full-PPR sites.

RB Eddie Lacy

In a week with several strong midrange RB values, Lacy is an unnecessary risk against a Lions squad allowing the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars						Houston Texans
Sun – 1:00 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10	40.5	15.25				-10	40.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.5	32	31	24		Offense	23.3	14	25	7
Defense	23.3	14	25	7		Defense	15.5	32	31	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	9	13	31	6		Jacksonville Jaguars	18	27	12	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Shorts						Hopkins	122	74	6	1205
Lee	60	35	1	414		Johnson	132	75	2	802
Hurns	92	49	6	662		Posey	1	1	0	30
Lewis	29	18	2	206		Graham	28	18	1	197

Quick Grind

•Texans need a win + lots of help to make playoffs
•Jaguars eliminated from playoff contention
•Texans heavily favored: Target the Texans Defense
•Avoid the Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars

Motivation: Low (Eliminated)

RB Toby Gerhart

In Week 15 Gerhart gutted out 13-54 against the Ravens, who grade out as the 4th-best run-defense squad and allow the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs. In Week 16 Gerhart gutted out 12-53-1 against the Titans, who grade out as the WORST run-defense unit and allow the most rushing yards per game. Two matchups that couldn’t be more different – but yielded nearly identical results. Welcome to the NFL. I’ll set the over/under of Gerhart’s production vs the Texans this week at 12.5 carries and 53.5 yards. It’s a fairly neutral matchup: the Texans are a little below average in run-defense grading and in DVP, but have been a top-3 team vs RBs over their last 5 games. Given his limited workload even after becoming the ‘starter’, Gerhart is a low-ceiling option in Week 17.

Jaguars WR Roulette

If someone asks you, ‘Which Jags WR do I play?’ and you aren’t immediately compelled to say, ‘None’, then I would offer up Marqise Lee. Lee’s 4-65 led the team last week, and marked the 3rd time he’s had at least 4 catches and 65 yards in his last 4 games. While inconsistency is remarkably consistent with these Jags WRs, it seems like Lee is the guy you want to roster. Lee has a solid floor, but also has a limited ceiling as he has yet to eclipse 75 yards this season.

Houston Texans

Motivation: High (“Texans need a win and help to make playoffs”)

RB Arian Foster

Naturally Arian Foster still managed to churn out 119 total yards (and a passing TD) against one of the NFL’s top run defenses last week. The sledding should be an awful lot easier for Foster this week against a Jags squad that is still bruised from the 26-148-1 pummeling he laid on them in Week 14. Foster is a top-3 RB this week.

WR DeAndre Hopkins/Andre Johnson

Both Texans WRs are in play against this exploitable Jags secondary, which grades out as the 4th-worst coverage unit on PFF. The limiting factor here is the Texans gameplan, which figures to include a heavy dose of Arian Foster and minimal attempts for Case Keenum. I think this ultimately caps the upside of Hopkins and Johnson, but does not completely remove them from tournament discussion.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2