NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-29 21:32:42

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:25 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.9	31	24	32		Offense	29.0	4	2	17
Defense	29.0	4	2	17		Defense	15.9	31	24	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	26	12	8	27		Oakland Raiders	25	31	5	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	108	71	6	649		Thomas	167	103	11	1504
Holmes	92	45	4	683		Sanders	132	95	9	1331
Moore	27	12	0	115		Welker	62	47	2	422
Rivera	92	56	4	508		Thomas	62	43	12	489

Quick Grind

•Broncos win = 1st-round playoff bye
•Raiders eliminated from playoff contention
•Excellent matchup for all the Broncos

Oakland Raiders

Motivation: Medium (nothing to play for, but team motivation has remained high under interim coach Tony Sparano as the Raiders play spoiler against their opponents)

RB Latavius Murray

There’s no question that Murray is an explosive runner, but that natural talent is often bottled up by the play of his offensive line. That said, he had some strong moments last week on his way to 108 total yards on 25 carries vs the Bills. This week presents another troubling matchup as Murray faces a Broncos squad that has been death to RBs not named Jeremy Hill. The Broncos allow just 52 rushing yards per game to RBs on the season, but of course were smashed for 22-147-1 by Hill last week (to be fair much of that came from an 85-yard romp). If Murray’s to have any success, he’ll need to do it himself, as I don’t see the Raiders line opening many holes for their impressive runner. He’s a risky tournament-only option.

Denver Broncos

Motivation: HIGH (“Broncos must win to earn first-round bye”)

RB CJ Anderson

Anderson leads the Broncos section based on his matchup against a Raiders squad that has been the 2nd-most favorable matchup for opposing RBs all season. After Anderson still had 26 touches even with the Broncos trailing last week, it seems there’s no game script where he will be phased out. He’s one of the safest RB plays this week and also offers a high-ceilling.

Broncos WRs

I love both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, and wrote them up as Stack targets in the RotoWorld WR/TE GrindDown:

Demaryius Thomas OR Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos, $9,000/$8,100 (2nd- and 12th-most expensive WRs, respectively)
Pair With: QB Peyton Manning, $9,600 (3rd-most expensive QB)
Total Stack Cost: $18,600 or $17,700 (31% or 29.5% of cap, respectively)

Both of Peyton’s top WRs are in play this week in a game the Broncos MUST win. Thankfully for both the Broncos and the duo’s DFS prospects, they face the Raiders. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders DVP ranking (they allow the 7th-fewest FPPG to opposing WRs), they have been exploited by talented WRs and passing attacks; opponents just prefer to run all over the Raiders because they can. Case in point, the last Broncos/Raiders clash, where Thomas went 11-108 and Sanders had 5-67-2 of his own. Yeah, REAL tough against WRs. The Raiders have also been shuffling their CBs over the past few weeks, with BOTH of their original starting CBs (Terrell Brown and Carlos Rogers) now on IR. With Thomas coming off another 100+ yard game, and Sanders reeling in 2 more TDs last week as well, I would target either (or both!) of the Broncos WRs as high-floor/high-ceiling plays against the Raiders this week.

QB Peyton Manning

Peyton struggled against the Bengals tough pass defense last week, racking up 311 yards and 2 TDs, but also slinging FOUR interceptions. Manning has struggled to produce in the box-score since Week 12, but surely THIS will be the week he turns it around, right? Based on what I wrote about his WRs, you can already guess how I feel about Manning. He’s a strong tournament play that likely won’t see a high ownership thanks to his recent struggles.

TE Julius Thomas

As an expert in all things citrus, I can say with confidence that Orange Julius doesn’t look healthy on the field. He’s a risky play until we see his form ripen.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:25 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.2	18	23	20		Offense	24.9	11	19	1
Defense	24.9	11	19	1		Defense	21.2	18	23	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	1	5	1	17		St. Louis Rams	12	9	29	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bailey	44	29	1	418		Baldwin	94	63	3	782
Britt	79	44	3	710		Kearse	69	38	1	537
Austin	43	30	0	226		Richardson	37	24	1	211
Cook	91	49	3	597		Willson	36	20	3	330

Quick Grind

•Seattle win = 1st-round playoff bye
•Rams eliminated from playoff contention
•Target Seahawks Defense

St. Louis Rams

Motivation: Medium (nothing to play for, but the Jeff Fisher-led Rams play each week tough, especially against divisional foes)

RB Tre Mason

Mason was highly touted last week, and was able to rip off chunks of yards consistently against the Giants… he just didn’t get many carries. Mason finished with 76 yards and a TD on just 13 carries. Unfortunately this week Mason runs into the Seahawks stonewall defensive front, which has limited opposing RBs to a pathetic 51 rushing yards per game (on less than 3 YPC) over their last 5 games. Mason was able to grind out 85 yards and a TD against these Hawks back in Week 7, but benefitted from some positive game scripts and field position in that HOME clash; this one is in Seattle, and it could get ugly. I really like Mason’s talent, but his floor and ceiling take a hit playing this elite defense on their home turf.

Seattle Seahawks

Motivation: HIGH (“Seattle must win to earn first-round bye”)

RB Marshawn Lynch

If I told you Marshawn Lynch played less than 50% of the snaps and had just 10 carries against a tough Cardinals run defense last week, you probably wouldn’t even think about rostering him, would you? In a perfect example of the NFL’s occasional wackiness, Lynch turned those limited opportunities into 10-113-2 on the back of a vintage Beast Mode 79-yard TD rumble. The limited workload in Week 16 should mean Lynch is plenty fresh for his rematch with a Rams defense that limited him to just 18-53 on the ground in Week 7. The Rams have been tough on opposing RBs this season (8th-fewest FPPG) but have allowed 94 rushing yards per game (15th-most) over their last 5, and were just thumped for 26-110 by Andre Williams last week. Expect a merciless dose of Marshawn this week in a game where a win earns the Hawks their 1st-round bye and a crucial home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Lynch is a top-tier RB this week.

QB Russell Wilson

Russ played out of his mind last week, torching the Cardinals for 339 yards and 2 TDs through the air, and adding 6-88-1 on the ground thanks to some Madden-esque moves. Considering the Rams just got eviscerated through the air AND on the ground last week, and also gave up a 300+ passing yard AND 100+ rushing yard game to Russ back in Week 7, the Seahawks QB makes for an excellent QB play this week.

WR Doug Baldwin

Injury Update: Rams CB EJ Gaines is DOUBTFUL to play this week.

With WR Jermaine Kearse likely out this week, Baldwin becomes an interesting play that could be overlooked. I discussed his value in the WR/TE GrindDown for RotoWorld:

“Baldwin is one of my favorite underrated WRs, but the Seahawks run-heavy scheme has seriously limited his opportunities and made him an inconsistent producer this season. However, Baldwin has been flashing of late, with 5-91-1 against the Eagles in Week 14, and 7-113 last week against the Cardinals. And now he gets a rematch with the Rams squad he bombed for 7-123-1 earlier this season. Fellow WR Jermaine Kearse’s injury should open up additional looks for Baldwin, and it doesn’t hurt that the Seahawks secure a 1st-round bye with a win, either. At a very modest price, Baldwin makes for a solid ‘glue’ WR for your roster if you’re stuck in the 6k range.“

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:25 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.5	23	17	28		Offense	19.1	26	27	10
Defense	19.1	26	27	10		Defense	19.5	23	17	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	6	10	7	24		Arizona Cardinals	17	2	16	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	99	61	2	755		Boldin	122	81	4	981
Floyd	87	39	4	688		Crabtree	104	64	4	657
Brown	94	44	5	645		Johnson	50	35	3	435
Carlson	53	32	1	344		Davis	48	25	2	236

Arizona Cardinals

Motivation: High (“Cardinals fighting for playoff seeding”)

Note: The Cardinals are still fighting for playoff seeding in this game (if the note above didn’t make that clear), but they are ALSO starting Ryan Lindley at QB. This basically disintegrates the value of their entire offense, especially against a tough 49ers defense. I would avoid all Cardinals this week

The Cardinals Passing Attack

The Browns are starting a practice-squad QB this week. The Chiefs are starting a career backup. But out of all the garbage QB situations in the league this week, the Cardinals starting Ryan Lindley is the worst. By far. Seriously, I’m gagging just from writing his name. Avoid.

San Francisco 49ers

Motivation: Low (Eliminated. But this is also probably HC Jim Harbaugh’s last game, and the 49ers hung tough last week despite having already been eliminated).

QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaep is a polarizing QB this week. On one hand, his passing yardage decline somehow continues (114 yards last week? Seriously?). But on the other hand, lots of people are talking about his 7-151-1 on the ground last week, sparked by a ridiculous 90-yard TD that had the entire state of California yelling ‘WHERE THE ^%& WAS THIS ALL SEASON” in unison. That, coupled with the Cardinals getting trounced for over 400 total yards and 3 TDs by Russell Wilson last week, has folks buzzing about Kaep’s potential this week. Unfortunately, that’s all it’s been for Kaep this season – potential. Against a tough, angry defense with lots left to play for, Kaep remains a low-floor/high-ceiling tournament-only QB.

WR Anquan Boldin

Boldin would have produced a strong bounce-back game last week had a TD not been nullified via penalty, but nonetheless he still finished with 7-61 – impressive considering his QB threw for just 114 yards. I don’t particularly like Boldin this week against the coverage of Antonio Cromartie & Patrick Peterson, but he’s the 49ers WR to own if you must take one.

RB Frank Gore

Of COURSE Frank Gore crushed the Chargers for 26-158-1 last week after being less than mediocre the entire season. I don’t think Gore has much chance of repeating against a stiff Cardinals run defense, although the Cards were just stung for 110 yards and 2 TDs on just 10 carries by Marshawn Lynch. Gore is a risky and low-upside RB against the Cardinals.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – FLEXED to 8:30 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.2	15	28	2		Offense	27.3	7	4	18
Defense	27.3	7	4	18		Defense	23.2	15	28	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	27	11	24	20		Cincinnati Bengals	5	28	2	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	103	61	6	959		Brown	168	122	12	1570
Sanu	98	56	5	774		Bryant	46	25	7	528
Tate	23	15	1	171		Wheaton	82	50	2	627
Gresham	77	59	4	440		Miller	84	63	3	720

Quick Grind

•Winner wins AFC North
•Loser still goes to playoffs
•Target studs from both teams

Cincinnati Bengals

Motivation: HIGH (“The winner of this game wins the AFC North title. Both teams fighting for seeding”)

RB Jeremy Hill

Jeremy Hill has been an absolute beast since becoming the Bengals lead RB. Even in the face of the Broncos outstanding defensive front, Hill managed to stampede for one massive 85 yard run. He ground out just 62 yards on his other 21 carries, but the Bengals were being awfully predictable trying to put the game on ice. It will be interesting to see how Hill does against the Steelers improved run defense this week. The Steelers have allowed just 75.3 rushing yards per game to RBs over their last 5, the 7th-best mark in the NFL, and limited the Bengals RBs to just 63 rushing yards back in Week 14. I don’t think the Steelers will have the same success against Hill if the Bengals give him 20+ carries for the 3rd straight week, and he’s a threat for both big plays and goal-line TDs. Despite the seemingly tough matchup, Hill remains a top-8 RB this week, and will be the key to his team’s success in this game.

WR AJ Green

Green was banged up in last week’s game vs the Broncos and ended up producing absolutely nothing. He’s been back at practice this week though and seems like a lock to play in what is a pivotal game for the Bengals playoff seeding. The concern here is how poorly Green played after he got hurt: he was able to keep playing, but was a complete non-factor. It would seem that Green’s injury – a bicep bruise – would be prone to reinjury if he took a shot to the same area. And if that happened, it seems likely that Green would again be limited the same way he was in the Broncos game. It’s a shame because I think Green’s matchup makes him a top-5 WR option this week, but the injury concerns also make him a big risk.

RB Gio Bernard

Gio has been transitioning into a new role after the emergence of Jeremy Hill, and had a solid 81 total yards and a TD on just 13 touches against the Broncos. Hopefully the now see how to best weaponize Gio – as an open-field nightmare for opposing linebackers. While Gio’s production might be a little inconsistent based on what he’s able to do with his weekly passing targets, he makes for an upside tournament dart based on his big-play potential.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Motivation: HIGH (“The winner of this game wins the AFC North title. Both teams fighting for seeding”)

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Because some top QBs have playing time or motivation concerns this week, Big Ben jumps several spots in QB ranking lists this week. And to be fair, Big Ben has been masterful at home (he’s thrown 6 TDs in a home game TWICE so far); he’s also been masterful of late, including a 350 yard, 3 TD, 0 INT performance against these same Bengals in Week 14. Finally, Ben and his team will also be playing full force this week. The downside is the matchup with a Bengals pass defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest FPPG over their last 5, which includes the Steelers big game in Week 14. Following that slip up, the Bengals crushed the debut of Johnny Manziel in Week 15, and stifled Peyton Manning’s comeback attempts via 4 INTs in Week 16. This is a solid unit that has finally begun generating pressure on QBs, and has forced 8 INTs in their last 5 games. I’m not saying avoid Big Ben entirely, there are just more favorable matchups to attack than this one.

WR Antonio Brown

Our second to last player of the regular season is also the WR I’ve preached about almost as much Odell Beckham. It’s the original ODB – Antonio Brown. It’s pretty amazing that 7-72-1 is just an OK performance (only his second game under 84 yards!) from Antonio Brown at this point. That’s what happens when you’re completely uncoverable and matchup proof (just take a look at the ridiculous feats in the table above). Brown overwhelmed this same strong Bengals pass defense for 9-117 in Week 14, and nothing about the matchup suggests they’ll have any more luck stopping him this time around. While I think Big Ben might struggle producing as a whole, I’m confident that 2014’s top WR will get his.

RB Le’Veon Bell

The rising star shattered this Bengals defense for 235 total yards and THREE TDs in Week 14. That performance is a big reason why the Bengals currently grade out as a bottom-8 run-defense unit, and allow the 8th-most FPPG on the season. LB Emmanuel Lamur is still limited with injury, and with top LB Vontaze Burfict on IR, this unit doesn’t figure to get better vs the run any time soon. After two straight games under 65 rushing yards for Bell, I expect the Steelers to exploit their top mismatch and pound Bell against the vulnerable Bengals front. It’s a recipe for a monster performance for the Steelers RB, who reigns as the top RB of the week.

With that, we close the final regular season #GrindDown of 2014 with one of the most transcendent talents in the NFL this season. Le’Veon Bell, Odell Beckham Jr… they’re what the #GrindDown is all about – taking a critical look at both the data and the film, and providing the analysis that puts us ahead of the pack. I hope that between all the snarky comments and the jokes about getting a Le’Veon Bell or Odell Beckham lower-back tattoo, that these columns have given you the knowledge and confidence to make some kick-ass lineups throughout the season. Don’t worry, I’ll keep churning out a weekly #GrindDown throughout the NFL playoffs, but I just wanted to thank everyone for the feedback and support this season. I really, truly appreciate all the comments and kind words.

As always, if you liked what you read, or have ideas about how we can make the #GrindDown even better next season, drop a comment below or hit me up on Twitter @ohnjz

Happy Holidays to all you Grinders out there, and good luck this week!