NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-28 00:12:38

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns						Baltimore Ravens
Sun – 1:00 PM						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9	42.5	16.75				-9	42.5	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	24	30	11		Offense	25.9	8	14	5
Defense	25.9	8	14	5		Defense	19.3	24	30	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	22	1	32	13		Cleveland Browns	4	19	13	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Gordon	47	24	0	303		Smith	85	45	10	684
Hawkins	105	59	2	791		Smith
Benjamin	43	17	3	305		Brown	30	23	0	238
Cameron	42	21	2	383		Daniels	74	46	4	481

Quick Grind

•Ravens need a win + help to make playoffs
•Browns eliminated from playoff contention
•Depth Chart Update: Browns starting QB Connor Shaw
•Target the Ravens Defense

Cleveland Browns

Motivation: Low (Eliminated)

QB Connor Shaw

With Johnny Manziel AND Brian Hoyer banged up this week, the Browns will start rookie Connor Shaw this week. The book on Shaw – an UDFA out of South Carolina – is that he doesn’t have much arm talent, doesn’t have much size, and had mobility that worked in college but likely won’t translate to the pros. Honestly, a lot of the same problems that Manziel faces. It’s not ideal for us, nor is the matchup against a fierce Ravens pass-rush (top-graded pass-rush on PFF). However, Shaw checks in at a miniscule price, and therefore must be mentioned in the obligatory ‘cheap QB’ discussion. Shaw is arguably the riskiest of the cheap QB crowd this week, but if his line can hold up than he should find openings against a weak Ravens secondary.

Editor’s Note: Josh Gordon has been ruled out Sunday for a violation of team rules.

WR Josh Gordon

The hope here is that Connor Shaw locks on to Gordon and peppers him with targets. That theory didn’t exactly work out with Johnny Manziel, but it’s really all we have to go on here. The Ravens have one of the flimsiest secondaries in the NFL, but their pass-rush has long graded out as the NFL’s best this season. That rush, plus the uncertain play of Connor Shaw, makes Josh Gordon far from a guarantee. He’s ideally suited for tournaments.

RB Isaiah Crowell

Not against this defense.

TE Jordan Cameron

Same as always: uncertain QB play makes Cameron risky, but for all we know Connor Shaw will lock onto him this week.

Baltimore Ravens

*Motivation: HIGH (“Ravens need a win and help to make playoffs.”)

RB Justin Forsett

Forsett was sunk for the second-straight week by a defense that punched holes in the Ravens run-blocking. Most will be off him due to the recent lackluster performance, but there’s no denying the bounce-back potential that a game against the Browns run-defense presents. The Browns are allowing 121.2 rushing yards per game to RBs over their last 5 games, and were completely thrashed for 241 yards and 3 TDs by Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard in Week 15. It’s tough to justify based on his last few weeks, but Forstett is a top-10 RB this week that is certain to be overlooked.

Too Many Smiths

Yes, the header is a reference to this
After his 5-59-2 vs the Texans last week, Torrey Smith is clearly the Smith to own this week, and a strong WR play outright. Or is he? Adam Levitan doesn’t think so. Check out the inside scoop on why we should avoid the dreadlocked Smith this week.)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	46.5	25				3.5	46.5	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.2	9	5	9		Offense	17.1	28	26	30
Defense	17.1	28	26	30		Defense	25.2	9	5	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	21	30	15		New Orleans Saints	30	29	25	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Colston	91	57	4	851		Evans	117	63	11	997
Stills	76	58	3	849		Jackson	140	69	2	991
Meachem	19	6	0	98		Herron	12	6	1	58
Graham	116	79	10	835		Myers	26	18	0	169

Quick Grind

•Both teams eliminated from playoff contention
•Target Saints passing attack
•Narrative Street Alert: Drew Brees near passing milestone

New Orleans Saints

Motivation: Low (Eliminated)

TE Jim Graham

Graham was my top TE in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on RotoWorld:

”After hauling in 6 catches for 53 yards and a score, Graham’s price actually went down this week. Considering Graham was just a blown-call away from a 2nd TD, this is a price we need to action. Graham also benefits from the matchup with a Bucs squad whose Cover 2 scheme permits the 2nd-most receptions and 5th-most yards per games to TEs. For the price of WRs like Torrey Smith, Jarvis Landry, and Brandon LaFell, you can roster Graham, who has top-10 RECEIVER upside and projects as the top TE of Week 17. He’s a no-brainer if you’re spending at TE this week.”

QB Drew Brees

Brees had an uneven and ultimately underwhelming performance against the lackluster Falcons defense last week. Those expecting 300+ yards and multiple scores got their yards… but Brees tallied just 1 TD, and paired it with 2 INTs. He’ll test our resolution this week, but I’m going back to the Brees well against a shoddy Bucs secondary that coughs up the 6th-most FPPG to QBs and was much worse than the box score indicated last week against the Packers. With an ideal weapon to dissect their Cover 2 (Jimmy Graham), I like Brees as a bounce-back candidate with a high ceiling.

WR Kenny Stills

Stills managed a solid but unspectacular 6-68 last week. His ceiling is through the roof this week against a Bucs squad that has coughed up massive lines to opposing #1 WRs and allows the MOST FPPG to the position as well.

RB #AngryIngram

Ingram missed these teams earlier clash. He’s a sneaky bounce-back candidate, though, as the Bucs grade out as the 2nd-WORST squad in run defense, and allow the 10th-most FPPG to opposing RBs.

WR Marques Colston

Colston continues to benefit from extra looks, and last week turned his 10 targets into 6 catches for 80 yards. He’ll be a high-floor, limited ceiling play against the Bucs weak secondary.

WR Nick Toon

Looking for a value WR? I wrote up Toon as a Bargain Bin Baller in the RotoWorld WR/TE Grind Down:
”Recommending Toon makes me slightly uncomfortable, but that’s what this section is for, right? Toon has been arguably one of the biggest beneficiaries of WR Brandin Cooks’ season-ending injury, suddenly seeing a bump in playing time and a consistent (albeit small) target supply. Toon hasn’t parlayed the extra opportunities into much, but he’s gotten you 3-4 catches for 40+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. That consistency, coupled with appealing TD tools in a usually-explosive passing attack make Toon a viable salary-relief play in the Saints 2014 finale.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Motivation: Low (Eliminated. In contention for #1 overall pick in NFL Draft)

WR Mike Evans & WR Vincent Jackson

Both Bucs WRs were ultimately shut down last week, not by the Packers defense per se, but by their ball control. When the Bucs did have the ball, the passing game looked in disarray. I expect a return to form against a Saints squad that grades out as the 2nd-worst coverage unit on PFF and allows the 6th-most FPPG to opposing WRs. Both WRs are in play, but as usual I prefer Evans due to his usage at every WR position, including the slot.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Dallas Cowboys						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.2	6	7	3		Offense	18.9	27	18	13
Defense	18.9	27	18	13		Defense	28.2	6	7	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	32	4	28	30		Dallas Cowboys	15	17	4	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	130	84	14	1221		Jackson	92	54	5	1083
Williams	60	34	8	553		Garcon	100	66	3	699
Beasley	40	31	4	363		Roberts	70	35	2	446
Witten	84	60	5	654		Reed	55	41	0	395

Quick Grind

•Dallas no incentive to compete? Be careful here
•Redskins eliminated from playoff contention
•If Cowboys starters play significantly, the passing attack has an excellent matchup
•Note the plays below are contingent on the Cowboys status – keep an eye on news prior to kickoff

Dallas Cowboys

Motivation: Medium (“A lot of things need to go right for the Cowboys to get a first-round bye, but they do need a win.”

WR Dez Bryant

Dez had just 3-30-1 the last time these teams met. That was a rare lull for Bryant, who has had a TD in 5 of 7 games since, and 70+ yards in 6 of 7. The Redskins cannot contain him; Bryant’s playing time is the only limiting factor here. We’ve yet to hear if the Cowboys starters will play the entire game, given that they need so much to happen in order to improve their playoff standing. I love Dez this week, but the playing time uncertainty has me looking elsewhere until we know more. He’s a top-5 option if you trust he plays start to finish.

QB Tony Romo

Romo went 18/20 for 218 yards and FOUR TDs against the Colts last week, and now he faces the defense that grades out as the WORST coverage unit on PFF. No brainer, right? Well, we don’t know what the Cowboys plans are in terms of playing their starters. If reports suggest the starters will play the full game, fire up Romo as a high-floor/high-ceiling option; if we hear nothing, however, I’d be more hesitant about using him.

RB DeMarco Murray/Joseph Randle

Murray made it through last week without complication, and has been practicing this week. However, as with the players above, we don’t know how much work Murray will get in this game. He certainly seems like the top candidate to either be rested or at the very least see less work. It makes playing Murray a definite risk until we hear more, and also makes #2 RB Joseph Randle an interesting value play. Randle should certainly see extra touches, and may actually get 1-2 quarters of work to himself if Murray is shut down after a certain ‘pitch count’.

TE Jason Witten

Witten has gone 7-69 and 7-90-1 over the past two weeks and appears to again be a viable receiving threat at TE. However, he’s a risky play for the same reason I’ve touched on for every other Cowboys player.

Terrance Williams

Williams rose from the dead to turn his 2 targets into 2-52-2 against the Colts last week. With the Redskins secondary clearly getting incentives for allowing big plays, Williams is a tournament-viable option.

Washington Redskins

Motivation: Low (Eliminated).

WR DeSean Jackson

DJAX is the top Redskins player I would target this week. I discussed his prospects in the RotoWorld WR/TE Grind Down:

”Jackson has been an absolute terror for his NFC East rivals this season. After terrorizing his previous employers (the Eagles) for 9-243-1 over 2 games, DJAX will now look to build on the 6-136 he dumped on the Cowboys back in Week 8. Cowboys CB Brandon Carr will again be hung out to dry this week; he grades out as PFF’s 10th-worst CB, and has already allowed 849 yards and 6 TDs this season (including 2-54 to Jackson in Week 8). If you’re looking for a high-upside tournament WR, Jackson is an excellent choice.”

RB Alfred Morris

The “Alf Morris is better w/ RG3” theorem added another notch to its belt last week with Morris grinding out 83 yards and a TD (and having 2 other potential scores vultured) against the Eagles. Now he faces a Cowboys squad that grades out as the 9th-worst run defense squad, that Morris tallied 73 yards and a TD against earlier this season. Morris is a mid-tier #2 RB option.

QB Robert Griffin III

Despite some disparaging remarks from his coach, RG3 figures to again lead the Redskins offense this week. And while the Cowboys present a tough matchup from a seasonal DVP standpoint, they’ve also allowed the 6th-most FPPG to QBs over their last 5 games. I would view RG3 as a tournament-only play, who becomes more interesting if we hear the Cowboys will pull their starters.

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