NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-28 16:45:12

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills						New England Patriots
Sun – 1:00 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.2	25	20	31		Offense	30.6	1	6	15
Defense	30.6	1	6	15		Defense	19.2	25	20	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	13	16	3	25		Buffalo Bills	2	7	14	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	118	59	6	890		Edelman	134	92	4	972
Woods	89	52	3	542		LaFell	113	70	7	883
Hogan	55	38	4	418		Amendola	35	23	1	176
Chandler	67	43	2	449		Gronkowski	131	82	12	1124

Quick Grind

•Patriots claim they’ll play starters, but reports suggest they may not play the entire game
• _Bill eliminated from playoff contention _
•Avoid Patriots unless reports suggest players WILL play the entire game

Buffalo Bills

Motivation: Low (Eliminated. But possibility they’ll face Patriots backups at some point)

WR Sammy Watkins

Watkins becomes interesting if we hear that the Pats might rest their defensive players. He managed just 2-27 against the Pats in their previous meeting, and figures to get locked down by Darrelle Revis for as long as the Pats starters remain in the game. I would assume Watkins would find much more success against players like CBs Logan Ryan and Kyle Arrington than he will against Revis and Brandon Browner. Watkins is a tournament-only option unless we hear promising news about the Patriots resting.

RB Fred Jackson

Jackson ripped off 103 total yards on 15 touches last week… and 9-93 came through the air. It’s further proof that FJAX is game-script proof, as he simply shifts his role to account for the situation. Jackson might need to do just that against a stiff Pats run defense that has allowed just the 5th-fewest FPPG to RBs over their last 5 games. Jackson is a low-ceiling play in this matchup but his receiving prowess also should ensure a high-floor, particularly on full-PPR sites.

New England Patriots

Motivation: LOW (“Patriots have clinched AFC’s No. 1 seed, might rest players”)

QB Tom Brady

Brady is a risk based on the likelihood that he sits for a good portion of this game. Belichick has said the starters will play, and Brady himself has said that he wants to play and compete, but nobody seems to believe either guy. Due to the uncertainty I would avoid Brady and instead look to the situations where we know the QB will be playing throughout (i.e. CAR/ATL, DET/GB, etc.)

TE Rob Gronkowski

UPDATE: Rob Gronkowski is INACTIVE today

I love Rob Gronkowski, I really do. But we simply don’t know how long the mythical creature will play in Week 17. The risk of him leaving nothing but a $7500-sized hole in your lineup is enough to mean we should avoid Gronk outside contrarian tournament lineups this week.

WR Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell

UPDATE: Julian Edelman is INACTIVE today

Sunday AM Update: Last night, the Pats promoted WR Josh Boyce from their practice squad. Many are taking this as evidence the Pats might limit their starters, particularly the WRs. We’re definitely digging deep here, but be extra careful playing any Pats skill players this week

Same as above – I wouldn’t play the Patriots normal starting WRs. Especially the ones that are already banged up.

Patriots RBs, aka How to Raise Your Blood Pressure

It never ends. Jonas Gray has already been ruled OUT this week, and LeGarrette Blount has been limited in practice. Shane Vereen is also questionable but is expected to play. So… James White? Branden Bolden? Vince Wilfork? It’s either White or Bolden who will handle the traditional carries, as Bill Belichick has never seemed willing to give Shane Vereen a full load of carries. The backfield leader could be a sneaky option this week considering the seemingly tough Bills defense has been leaking in run defense lately; on the season they are top-5 against RBs, but over their last 5 games the Bills have been allowing 104.6 rushing yards per game and the 11th-most FPPG. It’s a more enticing matchup than the seasonal DVP suggests but that doesn’t take away from how risky trusting a Patriot RB will be this week, especially considering we don’t know how long their ‘starters’ will be playing.

Possible Patriots targets if the starters play limited snaps

WR – Danny Amendola (runs Edelman-type routes, high-floor)
WR – Brian Tyms (preseason darling, big-play threat)
TE – Tim Wright (replaces Gronk, former WR who is a proven effective receiving TE)

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles						New York Giants
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	52	24.75				-2.5	52	27.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	29.3	3	13	6		Offense	23.6	13	10	21
Defense	23.6	13	10	21		Defense	29.3	3	13	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	23	20	10	22		Philadelphia Eagles	29	24	27	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	137	82	10	1269		Beckham
Matthews	93	59	7	767		Randle	115	65	3	780
Cooper	91	53	3	540		Parker	51	34	2	398
Celek	51	31	0	339		Donnell	86	61	6	597

Quick Grind

•Highest Vegas total of Week 17
•Both teams eliminated from playoff contention
•ODB vs the Eagles CBs: A Match Made in Heaven

Philadelphia Eagles

Motivation: Low (Eliminated)

LeSean McCoy
Shady’s first strong game of 2014 was against these Giants, whom he split for 149 rushing yards on 22 carries in Week 6. The Giants haven’t come very far in run defense since then, allowing the 5th-most FPPG to RBs and losing a few key defenders along the way. Shady is a top-6ish RB option.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin had just 2-16 in these teams’ Week 6 meeting and has seen far fewer targets of late than he was earlier in the season. The matchup with top Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie further complicates Maclin’s chances this week. I would avoid him in favor of other stud WRs.

WR Jordan Matthews

Matthews had yet to emerge when these teams first met, but figures to be a top passing option against the Giants week slot coverage. He’s the Eagles WR I would target this week.

QB Mark Sanchez

Reports are that Sanchez will get another start this week, despite the fact that they have nothing to play for. So, we get one FINAL shot to roster Mark Sanchez in this offense (probably). Yeah, that doesn’t do much for me, either. Sanchez is a mid-tier QB option, and I would prefer to either roster a stud or drop down for more salary relief this week.

NY Giants

Motivation: Medium (Eliminated. But haven’t given up, and may be playing for their coach’s job).

WR Odell Beckham JR

It’s our last chance to bask in the greatness of Odell Beckham JR this season — can you guess if I wrote him up in this week’s WR/TE GrindDown?

QB Eli Manning

If you’re taking the top WR of the week, you might as well pair him with his QB, right? The Eagles of course allow the 3rd-most FPPG to opposing QBs and give up strong performances to seemingly everyone. Eli is a top-tier tournament play.

RB Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams

Andre rumbled for 110 yards last week, but Rashad is Probable for this week. Their presumable workload split limits the value of both RBs.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Indianapolis Colts						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 1:00 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6.5	46.5	26.5				6.5	46.5	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.7	5	1	23		Offense	16.3	29	22	27
Defense	16.3	29	22	27		Defense	28.7	5	1	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	16	30	19	18		Indianapolis Colts	14	25	6	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hilton	129	82	7	1345		Wright	88	55	5	706
Wayne	114	62	2	688		Washington	68	40	2	647
Moncrief	44	29	3	428		Hagan	29	17	1	238
Allen	50	29	8	395		Walker	96	56	4	847

Quick Grind

•Colts claim they will play their starters, we don’t know for how long
• _Titans eliminated from playoff contention _
•Injury Update: Colts TE Dwayne Allen is OUT

Indianapolis Colts

Motivation: Medium (“Colts essentially locked into AFC’s No. 4 seed, although they insist they’re playing “all-out”)

QB Andrew Luck

Luck wasn’t horrible last week, but his TEAMMATES were. Not wanting to go into the playoffs as flat as they looked last week, the Colts will reportedly play their starters this week. The problem here is that we don’t know how long they’ll play. This makes a player like Luck a definite risk. However, 3ish quarters of Andrew Luck could easily be better than most other QBs, especially in Week 17. This Titans defense has limited garbage passing attacks (NYJ, JAC) in back-to-back weeks, but got bombed for 358 yards and 6 TDs by Ryan Fitzpatrick just 4 weeks ago – they can be exploited. Even if Luck is without a few weapons (TY Hilton and/or Dwayne Allen), he is a tournament option based on the potential that the Colts starters play the entire game. Just don’t use him in cash games or formats where you’re not comfortable taking the risk that he only plays a half.

WR TY Hilton

TY has practiced all week, which means we will likely be enticed to play him against a Titans squad that has been ravaged by #1 WRs. Don’t give in! Even if the starters do play significant time this week, Hilton is the top candidate to see limited work. He is an unnecessary risk this week.

TE Coby Fleener

Injury Update: Dwayne Allen is ruled OUT for Week 17

With no Dwayne Allen this week, we go back to the high-usage Coby Fleener of earlier this season. As I’ve maintained all season, Fleener is not a good TE, nor is he a good football player. He is, however, a large, fast person who happens to have Andrew Luck throwing to him and now has little competition for targets. The increased opportunities make Fleener a high-ceiling, top-10 option.

RB BOOM Herron

The Titans have allowed 129 rushing yards per game to RBs this season, and 121.8 yards per game over their last 5 games. The Titans play the Colts this week. Boom Herron is the Colts top RB. No extra information is necessary here.

Hakeem Nicks

I have to write this with my eyes close because I can’t bear to watch myself recommend Hakeem Nicks. However, it was NICKS who led the Colts receivers with 9-72 and a completely unjustifiable 11 targets last week. With TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne banged up, Nicks should remain in the game even once they get pulled. Nicks is a viable salary relief WR, but has a ceiling capped by lack of talent.

Tennessee Titans

Motivation: Low (Eliminated)

TE Delanie Walker

There’s not much to like with the Titans this week. But if you’re taking a Titans player, I would choose Delanie Walker. Walker followed up his FFFC-standings-swinging 4-93 in Week 15 with 4-54 against the Jaguars last week, and has been a consistently solid producer, especially in the wake of injuries to the Titans WRs. The Colts struggle against TEs (8th-most FPPG allowed) and just got stamped for 7-90-1 by Jason Witten – their starters are certainly exploitable by TEs, and the chance that Walker could face Colts backups further sweetens him as a possible play this week.

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