NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-28 23:56:18

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

San Diego Chargers						Kansas City Chiefs
Sun – 1:00 PM						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	42	19.75				-2.5	42	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.7	16	9	29		Offense	22.3	17	21	4
Defense	22.3	17	21	4		Defense	22.7	16	9	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	7	8	11	9		San Diego Chargers	20	15	17	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	121	77	4	783		Bowe	90	57	0	724
Floyd	84	49	6	827		Avery	26	15	0	176
Royal	83	58	7	683		Thomas	27	19	0	131
Gates	91	65	12	754		Kelce	79	60	5	778

Quick Grind

•Chargers win = playoffs
•Chiefs need a win + help to make playoffs
•A top motivation game to target
•Depth Chart Update: Chiefs starting QB Chase Daniel

San Diego Chargers

Motivation: HIGH (“Chargers make playoffs with a win”)

TE Antonio Gates

Gates exploited the paper-thin 49er LB corps that we pointed out here last week, to the tune of a ridiculous 7-92-2. This week he faces another team that on paper is among the best in the league vs the TE. The Chiefs have defended the TE well this season: the 68 yards they allowed to Heath Miller and the Steelers TEs in Week 16 was actually the most yards they had given up to the position this season. However, the Chiefs have also benefited from facing an awful lot of subpar or injured TEs. We need to take the DVP with a grain of salt here, especially considering that Antonio Gates is arguably the most talented TE the Chiefs have faced since Week 7… when they also faced Antonio Gates (Chargers TEs had 4-62-2 that day). Considering the playing time and motivation concerns of some of the other top TEs, Gates is in contention as the top TE of the week.

QB Philip Rivers

Rivers was literally Jekyll and Hyde against the 49ers last week, eventually turning around a horrific first half and finishing with 356 yards, 4TDs, 3 INTs, and the all-important win. Unfortunately the Chargers QB goes from facing one tough passing defense to facing the NFL’s 2nd-ranked pass defense squad, that hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season. In the hostile confines of Arrowhead, with an injury-ravaged offensive line, Rivers isn’t a good bet to continue the magic this week.

WR Eddie Royal / Malcom Floyd

Eddie Royal had lines of 2-30 and 3-27 before last week’s 10-94-1 on a team-high 12 targets. We’ve been down this road, many, many times before with Royal, and if you’ve played DFS at all in the last year, you know how this story ends. Thankfully, our own Bad Spot Prognosticator Adam Levitan makes a rational argument for staying far away from Royal in his weekly column

Floyd simply is what he is: a risky, big-play threat that runs straight pretty well and can make value in a single play. Floyd saw a bump in targets without Keenan Allen around last week (and because the Chargers were throwing relentlessly), a trend which should continue this week as the Chargers try to challenge the Chiefs over the top. He’s a low-floor/high-ceiling tournament option.

RB Branden Oliver

I supposed the 49ers losses on defense would cause their otherwise stingy defense to show some cracks last week, and sure enough, Branden Oliver had about the best 16-81 you’ll see. I still maintain that the talent we saw earlier this season is for real. With fellow RB Ryan Mathews already ruled out this week, it looks like Oliver will get at least one last hurray as the Chargers lead back. And it comes against a Chiefs squad that has allowed nearly 130 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs over their last 5 games. While Oliver isn’t likely to see a massive workload, his usage and effectiveness in the passing game gives him a high floor on full PPR sites.

WR Dontrelle Inman

Inman is one of the ‘buzz’ guys this week, after the size/speed freak was one of the saviors of the Chargers comeback against the 49ers. Inman was basically overwhelming in the 2nd half of last week’s win, and although he finished with only 7-79, the weight of the plays he converted made Inman’s true impact on the game much greater than the box score indicated. As a nearly minimum-priced WR across the industry, Inman’s projected supply this week is incongruent with his current price, making him a sneaky tournament play.

Kansas City Chiefs

Motivation: HIGH (“Chiefs need a win and help to make playoffs”)

RB Jamaal Charles

You will not find a Narrative Street in the city of Kansas City, MO. Despite numerous public apologies for using Jamaal Charles incorrectly, and comments to the media from Charles himself, Chiefs HC Andy Reid continues to underuse his only reliable weapon on offense. Charles was a top-2 RB in the NFL last season, and he’s basically been getting 10 carries over the last month, and has seen 20 or more carries just 3 times this season. It’s mind-boggling, especially for the savvy Grinders who have been rostering Charles each week with the logical assumption that one of the NFL’s top talents is bound to bounce back in both workload and performance.

The one bright side in this scenario is that the Chiefs MUST win this game to make the playoffs (they need some help too, but hear me out). With Alex Smith now out as well, and backup Chase Daniels slated to make his 2nd start in 2 years, the Chiefs MUST ride Charles this week; a massive workload from him is their only realistic shot of winning this game. That’s what logic would tell you, at least. Charles sure seems like a top-4 RB any way you slice it this week, but we simply can’t know what kind of BS gameplan Andy Reid will cook up.

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce is another top positional talent suffering under the Andy Reid ‘system’. Grinders know the story here: we affectionately refer to Kelce as ‘Baby Gronk’ here based on the overpowering physicality and playful violence that Kelce brings to the field. Unfortunately we only see those traits in bursts, as even after two strong performances in a row, Andy Reid suddenly dialed back Kelce’s role last week. This unpredictability mars an otherwise solid opportunity for Kelce against a Steelers squad that has struggled defending TEs in the redzone (10 TDs allowed, a TD in 6 of last 8 games). Kelce has a top-TE ceiling this week, but is a risky play considering his uncertain usage.

QB Chase Daniel

Daniel takes the reigns this week with Alex Smith nursing a lacerated spleen (is it just me or have there been a LOT of internal organ injuries this season?). It’s probably a lateral move for the offense in a one-week scenario, and might even be better for the Chiefs WRs. Daniels isn’t a prodigious talent, and we shouldn’t suddenly expect vertical shots a plenty, but his insertion can’t possibly lead to MORE checkdowns than what Alex Smith was dumping off on a weekly basis.

The Chargers allow the 10th-most FPPG to QBs, and also gave up 221 yards and 1 TD (along with 6 rushes for 29 yards) to Alex Smith back in Week 7. Daniel himself performed similarly in a Week 17 spot start last season (21/30, 200 yards, 1 TD; 7-59 rushing). I would expect no more than 30 attempts from Daniel as the Chiefs go run-heavy, resulting in around 220—250 yards and a TD or 2, including the FIRST Chiefs WR TD of the season (Bowe on a slant). Coupled with the potential for a few dozen rushing yards, Daniel should easily exceed value as a minimum-priced QB, putting him in consideration across all formats this week.

WR Albert Wilson

One of my favorite under-the-radar prospects that has finally begun to emerge, I discussed Wilson’s prospects in this week’s WR/TE GrindDown over at RotoWorld.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Bowe is (sadly) more interesting with Chase Daniel at QB, but even the extra intrigue makes him no more than a tournament stab.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

New York Jets						Miami Dolphins
Sun – 1:00 PM						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	42	18.25				-5.5	42	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.2	30	32	8		Offense	24.3	12	12	19
Defense	24.3	12	12	19		Defense	16.2	30	32	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	8	23	20	2		New York Jets	28	3	21	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	95	60	4	678		Wallace	114	67	10	862
Harvin	73	50	1	481		Landry	103	79	5	703
Kerley	68	32	1	310		Hartline	57	34	2	380
Cumberland	41	20	2	219		Clay	78	53	2	560

Quick Grind

•Both teams eliminated from playoff contention
•Target Dolphins passing game
•Avoid the Jets

New York Jets

Motivation: Low (Eliminated. Potentially Rex Ryan’s last game?)

WR Eric Decker

Decker was a disaster as predicted against the elite Patriots CBs last week. This week, however, he is intriguing considering Percy Harvin’s injury status. If you’re taking a Jets player (you shouldn’t be), Decker would be my top choice.

WR Percy Harvin

Harvin is Questionable this week, but made it through a limited practice on Friday. He is an intriguing tournament dart if he plays, but is ultimately an unnecessary risk in the Jets regular season finale.

RB Chris Johnson & Chris Ivory

The Dolphins are hemorrhaging 138.8 rushing yards per game over their last 5, making either Chris a viable salary relief play (though they limit each other’s upside).

Miami Dolphins

Motivation: Low (Eliminated. Coach is safe)

QB Ryan Tannehill

For most of the year I preached that Tannehill would put up a score that could win someone a GPP. He flirted with it a few times, but never really had that massive day I was hoping for. Until last week, when he completely undressed the Vikings for 396 yards and 4 TDs. It was like that scene in the movies where the guy hurries to the airport to catch his girl before she flies away forever. Unfortunately, the plane had already taken off once Tannehill’s massive score finally arrived, as he had a miniscule ownership across the industry.

This week I’m sure folks will chase Tanny’s points from last week, and he does have the most favorable QB DVP matchup, but keep in mind that Tannehill managed just 235 yards and 0 TDs against these same Jets in Week 13. He’s an excellent matchup play, but is best suited to tournaments.

WR Mike Wallace

Wallace had just 5 targets last week but cashed them in for 5-58-2. Apparently if the Dolphins just give up on the deep ball then everyone is a lot more efficient. What a concept. Wallace had 6-69 vs these Jets in Week 13 and is a high-upside tournament play.

TE Charles Clay

Clay is one of my top Value TEs in the WR/TE Grind Down this week:
” Clay FINALLY looks healthy again and was basically an automatic 1st-down against the Vikings, whom he skewered for 6-114. Now Clay pays visit to the TE Wonderland known as the NY Jets, who have allowed approximately 267 TDs (13, actually) and the 3rd-most FPPG to opposing TEs this season. He’s an excellent matchup play who should again be overlooked in tournaments.”

WR Jarvis Landry

The other LSU rookie WR had another 8 catch game last week… but turned those 8 catches into just 31 yards. That’s what you’ll get with Landry occasionally due to the routes he runs. Still Landry is a high-floor play this week against a defense he already navigated for 8-68 back in Week 13.

RB Lamar Miller

Miller exploded against the Vikings last week, but now gets a rematch with the defense he ground out just 56 rushing yards against in Week 13. You know the drill with the Jets run defense: you don’t target RBs against them. So… don’t target Lamar Miller against them.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Chicago Bears						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43.5	18.25				-7	43.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.7	20	11	26		Offense	20.8	19	29	14
Defense	20.8	19	29	14		Defense	20.7	20	11	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	11	26	15	11		Chicago Bears	31	22	23	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jeffery	140	83	10	1099		Johnson	55	29	2	453
Wilson	29	15	1	122		Jennings	88	56	6	697
Morgan	17	9	1	57		Wright	59	39	2	565
Bennett	117	82	6	857		Rudolph	34	24	2	231

Quick Grind

•Both teams eliminated from playoff contention
•Depth Chart Update: Bears starting QB Jay Cutler
•Lots of sneaky fantasy goodness

Chicago Bears

Motivation: Low (Eliminated. Some players might play ‘up’ with Jay Cutler back at QB)

RB Matt Forte

Forte is the stud RB that nobody is talking about this week. His workload has decreased as the Bears offense began to unravel, and that, mixed with two games against a stonewall Detroit Lions run defense, has been for Forte to basically become a forgotten man in DFS. Let’s not be so short-sighted. Forte churned out a ridiculous 175 total yards on 32 touches when these teams clashed in Week 11, and should again be the engine of the offense this week. The Vikings are fresh off allowing 150 total yards and a TD to Lamar Miller, and have been ravaged by injuries to their LB corps since they last saw Forte – this is a matchup to exploit. Forte is an excellent bounce-back candidate and top-tier RB this week.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery ripped these Vikings for 11-135-1 with Jay Cutler at QB back in Week 11. Since then, Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes has emerged as a lockdown talent, and even ‘shadowed’ Calvin Johnson with success in Week 15. With no proven threat at WR outside Jeffery, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rhodes shadow the Bears lone healthy stud WR this week. Rhodes has enough size and talent to make me worry about Jeffery in this matchup. He might very well be fine, especially with Cutler back at QB, but I’d rather look elsewhere if paying up for a WR.

TE Martellus Bennett

I think Bennett is in an excellent spot this week, and wrote him up as a top TE option in this week’s WR/TE GrindDown.

QB Jay Cutler

Cutler returns in time to face a Vikings squad he torched for 330 yards and 3 TDs back in Week 11. Of course, Cutler couldn’t escape that game without slinging a pair of INTs as well, and his risk-taking makes him a risky play again this time around. I do think Cutler can at the very least support the value of his top weapons, but is also tournament viable in what might be a ‘prove it’ game for him.

WR Marquess Wilson

Wilson made strides toward actually looking like an NFL WR last week, and had his best game to date with 7-66 against the Lions. He’s still in play as a salary relief WR vs the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings

RB Matt Asiata

I said Asiata WOULDN’T punch in his trademark 3 TDs again last week… and the plodding bruiser nearly proved me wrong. One of our many sneaky salary relief plays here last week, Asiata rolled to another pedestrian rushing yardage total (16-58), but also cashed in 2 more short TDs, and nearly had a third. His TD opportunities are seemingly never-ending. Asiata is a good bet to add to his TD total this week against the Bears, who are allowing the most rushing TDs per game over their last 5, as well as a healthy 111.6 rushing yards per game over that span. He is a strong salary relief RB this week.

WR Charles X Johnson

Week 11 vs the Bears was Johnson’s first strong performance as a Viking (6 catches, 87 yards). Since then he’s been a featured receiver for the Vikes, and while the solid production hasn’t always been there, the team is clearly trying to get him the ball, and he’s getting heaps of playing time to boot. Prior to last week, we’d had great success targeting WRs against Chicago’s BEAR-ly there defense, and we’re coming back unfazed this week. I anticipate the Vikings passing attack to find success against this limp secondary, and Johnson should be a big reason why. He’s a sneaky tournament WR.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy has been getting better and better and is quite clearly the top QB of this rookie class at the moment. He effortlessly navigated a previously tough Dolphins defense last week, and now gets a Bears squad hemorrhages fantasy points through the air. The Bears allow the 4th-most FPPG to opposing QBs while also grading out as a bottom-five team in pass coverage. Bridgewater should continue his ascent this week and is a solid salary relief QB across the industry.

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