NFL Grind Down: Week 3

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:27:16

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills

San Diego Chargers						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	45	21.25				-2.5	45	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	11	7	28		Offense	26.0	6	26	11
Defense	26.0	6	26	11		Defense	23.5	11	7	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	18	11	27	21		San Diego Chargers	27	23	24	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Targets	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	15	10	0	92		Watkins	15	11	1	148
Floyd	7	4	1	50		Woods	9	5	0	83
Royal	16	8	0	89		Williams	6	3	0	39
Gates	17	13	3	177		Chandler	3	2	0	27

Quick Grind

•Target the Chargers running game for value
•Chargers WR Keenan Allen should bounce back this week
•Bills WR Sammy Watkins could have a repeat of Week 2

San Diego Chargers

QB Phillip Rivers
This week Rivers faces a Bills team whose secondary has been getting absolutely torched by WRs this season. The Bills are allowing the 6th-most passing yards/game (295) in 2014, and I anticipate Rivers shouldn’t have a problem exploiting them again in this one. However, I think Rivers upside is capped this week because the Chargers should find success on the ground, and he ultimately might not need to pass as much as we would like. The pass-blocking of the Chargers OL is an issue as well – PFF has them graded as the 4th-worst pass-blocking unit this season. The Bills have an extremely talented defensive line, that is capable of generating pressure from both the interior and the edge. Rivers should be under regular duress. Ultimately Rivers is just a GPP option this week: he could hit a few deep shots vs the Bills burnable CBs, but there are better options in his price range.

WR Keenan Allen
Allen is the #1 WR in San Diego and is the Chargers receiver in the best position to succeed in Week 3. He is likely to be underowned in DFS after a quiet Week 1 and a Week 2 spent against CB Richard Sherman. His matchup against outside CBs Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin is encouraging, as the duo has been beaten repeatedly so far in 2014: McKelvin was especially bad Week 1 allowing 10-139-1 vs the Bears, and Gilmore allowed 4-41-1 and a 140.4 QB rating last week vs the Dolphins. Allen should have absolutely no problem whipping either of them. His price is depressed on some sites, so he represents a solid value option at WR this week.

TE Antonio Gates

Gates’ ownership will certainly be up after he roasted the Seahawks defense for 3 TDs last week. Don’t expect a repeat performance again this season though. Ultimately, Gates should find space this week against a Bills team allowing the 4th-most receptions/game to TEs. He’s a solid option at TE.

RB Donald Brown
The Chargers running game represents an excellent value opportunity in DFS this week, as normal starting RB Ryan Mathews is out for the next month+ with an injury. This week Chargers coaches confirmed that ex-Colt Donald Brown will take Mathews’ role in the offense going forward. Brown was quietly one of the most effective RBs in the NFL last season, averaging 5.3 YPC and leading the NFL in PFF’s ‘Elusive Rating’ metric. He’ll be supported by 2013’s 11th-best run-blocking unit, who are much better than they’ve shown so far in 2014. On the flip side, he’ll face a Bills run D that looks average on paper, but is coming off a game where the Dolphins completely abandoned the run after losing RB Knowshon Moreno. Let’s not forget that the same Bills squad gave up 169 total yards and 4.8 YPC to Matt Forte in Week 1. Brown should have room to run in this one, and isn’t priced congruently with the volume of carries he’ll receive. Fire him up as solid salary relief #2 RB.

RB Danny Woodhead
Danny Woodhead should also see added opportunities in the wake of Ryan Mathew’s injury. Buffalo is allowing 6.5 receptions/game to RBs, the 7th-most in the NFL, and the 5th-most receiving yards/game to RBs as well. They simply don’t have a coverage replacement for injured LB Kiko Alonso. Woodhead should thrive in space in this one and makes for a sneaky option on full PPR sites.

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins
Watkins was simply amazing last week, going 8-117-1 in what could have been a MUCH bigger performance had EJ Manuel been more accurate. Watkins athleticism seemed to overwhelm a solid Dolphins secondary – he was gaining separation and finding holes in the defense in a hurry. If that trend continues, Watkins will consistently be a high-ceiling prospect for GPPs. This week Watkins faces a Chargers secondary that is the 8th-best coverage unit on PFF, but has allowed the 9th-most FPPG to WR as well. Chargers rookie CB Jason Verrett will likely cover Watkins the most this week; Verrett has graded positively in coverage but has also allowed a 109.7 QB rating so far in 2014. Watkins lines up in various spots though, especially in the Bills shotgun formations, so he should also get chances against terrible CB Shareece Wright. Wright was PFF’s 6th-worst CB in coverage and allowed 976 receiving yards in 2013; he’s already given up 5-125 this season. Watkins should beat him with ease. Overall I like Watkins as a #2 WR in GPPs this week. His ownership will be up after his big Week 2, but the potential is there for him to replicate that performance.

WR Robert Woods
Woods disappeared in Week 2 after going 4-78 in Week 1. He will be a decent punt WR on full PPR sites this season. However, be cautious this week as Manuel appears to be locked onto Sammy Watkins as the #1 option.

RB CJ Spiller
So far so good with Spiller, who is getting enough carries (~12/game) to be a useful option in DFS. His game-breaking speed was on display on a kick return TD, an example of the upside he brings each week. This week he faces a Chargers defense that was graded 5th-worst vs the run in 2013 by PFF. They’ve given up the 10th-most FPPG to RBs so far this season. If the Bills can stay close in this one, Spiller should be a top-20 option at RB.

Also, given Spiller’s role on kick returns, he makes for an intriguing stack partner with the Bills Defense. There will be better weeks for the defense on it’s own, so keep this pairing in mind. It’s pretty rare to be able to get potential kick return TDs from your RB.

RB Fred Jackson
Fred Jackson has been underwhelming to start 2014, but is still the main passing and red-zone option for the Bills – his production is coming. His skill-set matches up well against a Chargers defense that is allowing 8.5 receptions/game to RBs, worst in the NFL. He should have a high floor this week.

Others
I don’t think QB EJ Manuel is worth rostering in DFS unless he starts consistently rushing on the Bills zone-read plays. He should have a little extra time to throw with Chargers OLB Melvin Ingram likely out this week. TE Scott Chandler has neither the floor nor ceiling to be a useful punt.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee Titans						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	42.5	17.75				-7	42.5	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.0	25	16	25		Offense	23.5	11	10	10
Defense	23.5	11	10	10		Defense	18.0	25	16	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	10	8	29	19		Tennessee Titans	3	11	5	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Targets	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	12	9	1	77		Green	9	6	1	131
Washington	12	5	0	60		Sanu	9	7	1	120
Hunter	14	5	0	89		Jones
Walker	18	13	2	179		Gresham	8	5	0	41

Quick Grind

•Target the Bengals ground attack (Bernard and Hill)
•Avoid the Titans

Tennessee Titans

QB Jake Locker
After a sharp 2014 debut, Jake Locker regressed in his dream matchup against the Cowboys in Week 2. This week Locker is best avoided against an extremely stout Bengals defense that is coming off a lockdown of the Falcons (who just dropped 56 points on the Bucs Thursday night). Due to both his letdown last week, and stiff matchup this week, Locker will be hardly owned in Week 3. It makes him slightly more interesting as a GPP option… but know that this matchup limits both his floor and ceiling.

TE Delanie Walker
If I had to target one member of the Titans passing attack this week, it would be TE Delanie Walker, who is coming off a career game vs Dallas in Week 2 (10-142-1). Through 2 games in 2014, it certainly seems like Walker is more of a safety blanket for Locker than he ever was in 2013. It should keep Walker’s ceiling high on full PPR sites.

WR Justin Hunter
I’m listing Hunter here just because I think his matchup projects to be the friendliest of the Titans receivers. Hunter should line up opposite CB Pacman Jones; Jones is the only Bengals CB who has been successfully picked on this season, having allowed 9-155-1 already. So, if you must stack Locker and a WR, I would suggest making it Hunter.

By comparison, I would think that #1 WR Kendall Wright will draw Bengals #1 CB Leon Hall both in 2WR sets and when he kicks into the slot (Hall moves to the slot as well in 3-wide sets). It’s a horrible matchup for Wright and good reason to avoid him this week.

Others
I would avoid the other members of the Titans vs this defense. RB Shonn Greene likely won’t find much room to run this week. #2 WR Nate Washington only has value as a blocker.

Cincinnati Bengals

RB Giovanni Bernard
Last week I made a bold claim about Gio Bernard: “This week should be Bernard’s coming-out party, facing a Falcons defense that just gave up 13-60-2 on the ground to RB Mark Ingram and 6-58 through the air to RB Pierre Thomas. Bernard’s upside is a mixture of those lines.” Hope you paid attention!

While he’s not likely to top his Week 2 line this season, Bernard still makes a solid option against a Titans run defense that just got gashed for 29-167-1 by DeMarco Murray in Week 2. The Titans are a solid defensive unit but don’t have the personnel to stop the bleeding vs the run. They’re allowing the 6th-most rushing yards/game (125.5) this season. Fire up Bernard as a safe #1 RB choice this week.

RB Jeremy Hill
Bernard wasn’t the only one who got in on the action vs the Falcons last week. Rookie RB Jeremy Hill also broke out for 15-74-1 vs the Falcons run “defense”. Hill’s usage in Week 2 was encouraging, and we should see similar workloads in games where the Bengals are ahead and looking to grind out the clock. This week is one of those games. Expect healthy doses of Hill in this one – he makes a great punt option at RB.

Bengals Passing Attack
The Bengals advantage in this one will be their ground game, as their own personnel match up favorably with the weak run D of the Titans. Moreover, the true strength of the Titans D is their coverage – they are the 9th-ranked coverage unit on PFF, and allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. In addition, top Bengals WR AJ Green is banged up this week, which takes most of the bite out of the Bengals passing attack. I would be sure to avoid using QB Andy Dalton if Green is inactive. The primary receiving option if Green sits would likely be WR Mohamed Sanu, but he is more of a possession WR than prototypical #1 target. If he’s the only option, I think Titans CB Jason McCourty eliminates him easily. Sanu is no more than salary relief this week. TE Jermaine Gresham is the primary TE option until Tyler Eifert comes back, but even that isn’t worthy of serious consideration with other upside punts emerging this week (Niles Paul, Travis Kelce, Larry Donnell)

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Continue to Page 2