NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:58:49

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore Ravens						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 1:00 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	41.5	20.75				0	41.5	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.0	22	13	17		Offense	26.5	5	19	5
Defense	26.5	5	19	5		Defense	21.0	22	13	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	20	28	19	27		Baltimore Ravens	6	7	21	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	10	4	0	60		Austin	13	8	1	64
Smith	25	13	1	189		Hawkins	22	14	0	157
Brown	1	0	0	0		Benjamin	7	3	1	26
Pitta	19	13	0	113		Cameron	5	2	0	47

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total of the week
•Limited options
•Both running games are intriguing

Baltimore Ravens

Update: Baltimore beat writers are reporting that RB Bernard Pierce is in doubt today. If Pierce sits, upgrade RB Justin Forsett as a solid #2RB, especially on full PPR sites. Lorenzo Taliaferro becomes longshot GPP option

WR Steve Smith
After two weeks, Steve Smith easily leads the Ravens in everything receiving related, and I am a begrudging believer in his role in the offense. The diminutive old man is an intriguing option in DFS until he cools down or the Ravens run into teams they can’t beat by relying on a 35 year old WR. I’d be surprised if Haden shadows the little Smith in this one because the Ravens line Smith up in a variety of positions.

WR Torrey Smith
So far I’ve been wrong about Torrey Smith this year. I though he would be poised for a huge year being featured in Gary Kubiak’s offense, but has been playing second fiddle to Steve Smith. Until his usage in the offense increases, Smith should be avoided in DFS outside of long-shot GPP lineups. Smith also likely draws Joe Haden’s coverage in this one, which further limits his appeal.

TE Dennis Pitta
Disregard Owen Daniels’ 2 TDs last week – Pitta is the Ravens receiving TE. He should be in for a solid outing this week vs a Browns defense that just gave up 10-118-2 to Jimmy Graham. Look for the Ravens to re-expose this weakness with Pitta, who is a solid option on full PPR sites.

RB Bernard Pierce
Bernard Pierce is not a great running back, but he’s a starting RB in a good running scheme, with a solid offensive line. That’s enough for him to hold value as a salary relief RB option in DFS. He should have room to run against a Browns defense allowing the 5th-most rushing yards/game and 5th-most FPPG to RBs.

Defense
Of all the Ravens, I probably like their Defense most in this one. They’re sporting an especially stingy secondary and should be stout vs the run as well. I don’t anticipate Brian Hoyer beating the Ravens outside CBs. If the Ravens can slow the impressive Browns run game, they should be in line for a solid defensive showing.

Others
Joe Flacco is an unappealing QB in a game with the lowest Vegas total. Justin Forsett appears stuck in a 3rd-down role until Pierce fumbles again.

Cleveland Browns

TE Jordan Cameron
Cameron has a possibility of returning from injury this week. If he does, he should immediately become the top option in the Browns passing game. It’s not an ideal matchup against a Ravens team allowing the 5th-fewest FPPG to TEs so far in 2014, but the target volume Cameron should see would still make him a viable option.

WR Andrew Hawkins
If Hawkins had a better QB, he would be an excellent full PPR option. Even with Hoyer as his QB, Hawkins has gone 8-87 and 6-70 so far in 2014. He’s a sneaky #3 WR on full PPR sites and has a big-play ceiling that hasn’t shown up in the box score yet (he’s been a Hoyer miss away from a huge game a few times). He’s by far the most appealing Brown WR in terms of talent, and also in terms of matchup this week. Hawkins will avoid the Ravens stud outside CB duo and instead likely be covered by the burnable Asa Jackson or Chykie Brown.

RB Terrance West
It’s getting hard to ignore the Browns running game. The RB is largely immaterial when they’re in the Shanahan zone-running scheme behind an offensive line that ranks 2nd-best in run-blocking on PFF. Terrance West is the benefactor again this week. He remains fairly cheap across the industry and is a salary relief option at RB this week.

Others
Brian Hoyer isn’t in consideration. #2 WR Miles Austin scored last week but is unspectacular and will be shut down by a talented Ravens CB corps.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers						Detroit Lions
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	53	25.25				-2.5	53	27.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	11	6	27		Offense	21.0	22	5	22
Defense	21.0	22	5	22		Defense	23.5	11	6	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	8	13	4	22		Green Bay Packers	23	27	17	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	30	18	1	292		Johnson	24	13	2	247
Cobb	15	11	3	97		Tate	14	11	0	150
Boykin	3	1	0	6		Ogletree
Rodgers	1	0	0	0		Pettigrew	2	1	0	9

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval – target everyone!
•Both passing attacks should see high volume
•Detroit run D limits appeal of GB RB Eddie Lacy

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers predictably bounced back from his Week 1 struggles against the Seahawks to demolish the Jets in Week 2. The Packers’ elite QB threw for 346 yards and 3 TDs against a helpless Jets secondary. This week Rodgers gets a Lions defense that has improved vs the pass so far in 2014. Expect Rodgers to get plenty of passing attempts as the Packers will struggle to run in this one and will need to air it out to keep up with the Lions offense. With game flow factors in his favor plus a good matchup, fire up Rodgers as a Top-3 option at QB this week.

WR Jordy Nelson
While it wasn’t a huge reach, I advocated the Rodgers-Nelson connection here last week: “Don’t be surprised if Nelson goes off for 100+ yards and 1-2 TDs vs the Jets – all Rodgers needs is a little time in the pocket. If you find Nelson priced outside the top-6 or top-8 WRs this week, pounce.”

Nelson’s matchup isn’t as overwhelming this week against an emerging young CB in Darius Slay, but he’s basically matchup-proof thanks to Rodgers’ pinpoint accuracy and the duo’s disgusting chemistry on back-shoulder throws. Nelson is a Top-3 option at WR this week.

WR Randall Cobb
Slot maven Randall Cobb hasn’t been seeing his anticipated target volume so far in 2014, but his production has been buoyed by consistent looks in the red-zone that Cobb is translating into uncharacteristic TDs. I think this week Rodgers will feature Cobb more than Nelson, as Cobb draws the friendliest CB matchup in the slot.

WR Davante Adams
Davante Adams is worth mentioning as a punt WR option because he has appeared to overtake Jarrett Boykin as the Packers #3 WR. In weeks with high totals (such as this one), that role will be especially valuable in DFS. This is likely the lowest Adams’ price will be all year if he definitively claims the #3 WR job, so he makes a good value as a punt WR this week.

RB Eddie Lacy
Of all the Packers playmakers, Eddie Lacy might have it the toughest in Week 3. He faces off against a Lions defense that is only allowing 43.5 rushing yards per game to RBs, the 2nd stingiest in the NFL. Lacy will undoubtedly get opportunities to punch in a TD as the Packers shouldn’t have problems moving the ball through the air, but we shouldn’t expect a massive yardage total from him this week.

Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford
Stafford and the entire Lions offense struggled against an elite Panthers defense in Week 2. Expect a bounce-back this week vs a Packers defense that Stafford has found massive success against recently. Like Rodgers, Stafford should have plenty of pass attempts in this likely aerial shootout. He’s a Top-5 QB option.

WR Calvin Johnson
Do you even need any analysis here? It really doesn’t matter how the Packers try to defend Calvin – he can’t be stopped. Packers CB Sam Shields was able to slow down Johnson last season, but the WR dominated whenever he faced non-Shields coverage and still finished 10-101-1. Even against the Packers improved secondary, Megatron is the top WR option this week.

WR Golden Tate
Lions #2 WR Golden Tate is in an excellent position as the #2 option on a high-powered passing offense that projects to be both throwing and scoring often this week. Fire him up as an ideal #3 WR.

RB Joique Bell
Bell has been used both as the Lions primary interior runner and as an option in the passing game (3rd in targets). He is a sneaky option in DFS this week against a soft Packers run D that has allowed the 6th-most points to RBs this season. Expect 15+ touches, a high floor, and access to 2TD upside as the Lions red-zone RB.

RB Reggie Bush
Bush is no longer a reliable option at RB as he has taken on more of a chess-piece role in the Lions offense. He has GPP appeal this week against a defense that has no answer for him in coverage.

Others
Until the situation changes I’m just recycling my comments about the Lions TEs: “The Lions currently use a three-man platoon at TE which limits the snaps and targets each man receives, and limits the DFS value of the position overall.” A consistent #3 WR has yet to emerge as well – focus on the main playmakers described above.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7	45.5	26.25				7	45.5	19.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.5	7	4	20		Offense	13.5	30	15	32
Defense	13.5	30	15	32		Defense	25.5	7	4	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	25	31	18	30		Indianapolis Colts	28	30	3	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wayne	20	12	0	126		Shorts
Hilton	22	11	0	106		Lee	14	8	0	73
Nicks	8	6	1	32		Hurns	15	6	2	123
Allen	6	4	1	64		Harbor

Quick Grind

•The Colts should dominate in all phases
•Game flow should increase Colts RB rushing volume

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck
Luck disappointed an awful lot of Grinders last week, throwing for only 172 yards in the not-quite-shoot-out with the Eagles. His opponent this week should right the yardage ship for Luck, as the Jags are allowing an average of 305 passing yards/game this season. Of course, Luck may not need to rack up his own stats to beat a team that has been run over defensively, but his floor should at least be high in a game where the Colts should roll.

WR Reggie Wayne
Wayne had a hiccup last week against a solid slot CB, but will be his usual reliable presence going forward. Wayne is only one target behind TY Hilton for the team lead and should find plenty of space against a Jags team that has struggled against slot WRs so far in 2014. He’s a solid #2 WR on full PPR sites.

WR TY Hilton
Hilton leads the Colts in targets this year but he hasn’t hit on one of his trademark big plays yet. Expect the Colts to keep trying, making him a solid GPP play with a higher floor than other deep threats.

TE Dwayne Allen / Coby Fleener
Though he was shut out in Week 2, Colts TE Dwayne Allen has an excellent matchup vs a Jags defense that has allowed a whopping 95.5 yards/game and the 3rd-most fantasy points to TEs this season. Coby Fleener also features in 2TE sets and is obnoxiously athletic… he just isn’t a great football player. His athleticism and surprising target volume make him a GPP option though.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Bradshaw looked vintage 2010 in Week 2, totaling 96 yards and 2 TDs on 18 touches. He’s out-snapping and out-playing RB Trent Richardson so far in 2014, and is the more appealing option on full PPR sites given his role in the passing game (5 catches last week). I wouldn’t hesitate to use him this week against a Jaguars D that has given up the 2nd-most FPPG to opposing RBs, including the 4th-most receptions per game.

RB Trent Richardson
Though Richardson has looked lackluster overall, the game flow in this one could give him ample carry volume to grind out rushing yards. The Jags are allowing 148 rushing yards/game to RBs, so the matchup is certainly enticing. Richardson makes a sneaky GPP #2 RB.

Others
Colts #3 WR Hakeem Nicks has been an inconsistent option in the passing game, and doesn’t project to get any extra looks in this one as the Colts should cruise.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Toby Gerhart
To be clear, I don’t recommend starting Gerhart here. His offense and offensive line are a disaster, and he should really be avoided until they show signs of continuity. BUT, the matchup against a Colts defense that lacks impact players, and has given up the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs (albeit skewed by Sproles’ massive receiving day) is awfully appealing.

WR Cecil Shorts
Update: Shorts is probable for Week 3. He becomes a very sneaky option on full PPR sites and should command a large share of the JAX passing targets this week

Shorts has been limited in practice this week but has received positive comments from coaches. If he goes, he’ll immediately reclaim the #1 WR role in the Jags passing attack. You might scoff, but Shorts has had two strong seasons in equally horrible offenses. He could be a sneaky full PPR option this week.

WR Allen Robinson
Potentially the only healthy Jags WR this week, Robinson would be in line to replicate his 4-75 line from Week 2 if he starts this week. It’s not super exciting, but this is the Jaguars we’re talking about…

Others
Staring TE Mercedes Lewis is on IR. Starting WR Marqise Lee is already ruled out for Week 3.

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