NFL Grind Down: Week 4

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-29 17:41:47

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers						Chicago Bears
Sun – 1:00 PM						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	49	24				-1	49	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.0	27	11	27		Offense	25.0	9	5	32
Defense	25.0	9	5	32		Defense	18.0	27	11	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	12	21	10	10		Green Bay Packers	7	27	15	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	37	23	1	351		Marshall	26	14	4	125
Cobb	21	14	3	126		Jeffery	25	16	0	223
Boykin	7	2	0	17		Holmes	10	6	0	50
Rodgers	1	0	0	0		Bennett	26	20	4	161

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Play Everyone
•Highest Vegas total = lots of DFS goodness
•Don’t overreact to Packers poor Week 3!
•Both RBs have extremely favorable matchups

A Quick Note on Recency Bias in DFS:

Many a Grinder was burned by the Packers in Week 3. Get over it. Your natural inclination might be to avoid the Packers, or to swear them off entirely. Instead of doing so, realize that many people will share that same feeling, depressing the Packers ownership this week. This will be a top-5 offense by the end of the season, and you’ll find them at both a slight discount and lower ownership this week. Take emotion out of the equation and the correct play becomes a lot clearer.

But… if they bust again this week, feel free to address all rants to my completely legit email: relax@tiltmail.com

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers had a Derek Carr-like 162-1-0 line in Week 3, which you aren’t likely to see from him again this season. The fact of the matter is that the Packers offensive line was horrible in Week 3, and it left Rodgers in difficult situations all night. The Bears don’t have nearly the pass-rush of the Lions, nor do they have much run defense to speak of. They’ve also lost their top CB for the season, and both starting safeties are questionable (in health and talent). The Bears defense vs QBs thus far in 2014 looks a lot better than it is, thanks to facing EJ Manuel and Geno Smith, and is certain to regress anyway due to mounting injuries. Rodgers. Will. Be. Just. Fine. He’s a top-2 option at QB this week, and may not be owned like it.

WR Jordy Nelson
Jordy followed up his 9-209-1 game in Week 2 with a 5-59 line last week. He’s _only averaging 117 yards per game now. As the primary outside WR for the Packers, Jordy will see Bears LCB Tim Jennings and standout rookie RCB Kyle Fuller in coverage. The matchups aren’t great, as Jennings only allowed a 68.2 QB rating in 2013. But Jennings is also only 5’8 and gives up a massive size advantage to the 6’3, 217 lb Nelson. Rodgers and Nelson should get back on track in this one and exploit both Jennings size and the Bears lack of quality safety play. Nelson is a top-5 option at WR this week.

WR Randall Cobb
Cobb is the only Packer whose usage might be a little concerning, as he’s been held under 60 yards in every game thus far and has seen unsustainable TD production. However, he draws a great matchup in this one vs Bears slot CB Isaiah Frey. Frey gave up 4-46-1 and allowed a 129.2 QB rating vs the lowly Jets passing attack last week, and shouldn’t have much success tracking Cobb. Despite his low yardage totals to-date, Cobb still makes for an excellent option on full-PPR sites.

RB Eddie Lacy
The Packers running game will get back on track in this game after being stonewalled by the Seahawks, Jets, and Lions to open 2014. Those three run defenses were all top-10 vs the run in 2013, and are all top-6 so far in 2014:

It’s not that Lacy has been bad — his opponents have just been really good. The Bears aren’t historically bad vs the run like they were in 2013, but are by no means a good run defense team now, and will be without DT Jay Ratliff for the second straight week. They’re currently tied for the 11th-most rushing yards allowed per game, a figure that should get worse as the season progresses. Take advantage of Lacy’s submarining price on certain sites and roster him with confidence as a mid-range #1 RB this week.

Chicago Bears

QB Jay Cutler
Cutler had his second straight low-yardage but multiple-TD game in Week 3, throwing for 225 yards and 2 TDs vs the Jets. The Packers secondary is MUCH better than the ragtag group the Jets throw out, allowing the 7th-fewest FPPG to QBs and grading as PFF’s 5th-best coverage unit. Ultimately Cutler’s upside is dependant on the health of WR Brandon Marshall, as he is largely matchup proof when he has both of his Twin Towers in play. If Marshall goes, I think Cutler makes for a top-5 QB this week.

WR Brandon Marshall
Marshall burned those that took a calculated risk on his health last week when he aggravated his injury. He missed a few series and was limited throughout, but still managed to see several red-zone targets, and also had a touchdown called back. He hasn’t been practicing and is likely a GTD this week, but if Marshall plays, he’s a top-5 WR. Period.

WR Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery benefitted from the Bears being without Brandon Marshall for a stretch in Week 3, dropping 8-105 on former Gamecock teammate Antonio Allen and the Jets. If Marshall sits in this game, Jeffery is almost a must start, as the passing game will go through him. When Marshall does play, Jeffery is still a valuable big play WR whose red-zone potential is still untapped. He makes for a solid #2 WR this week.

TE Martellus Bennett
Martellus Bennett may have quietly emerged as the Bears primary red-zone threat – an extremely valuable role in DFS. Bennett is tied for the team lead in overall targets, and has already pulled in 4 TDs. In any situation where Marshall or Jeffery sit, Bennett will be a top TE option.

RB Matt Forte
Forte predictably struggled last week vs the Jets, gaining only 33 yards rushing (but chipping in 6-43 receiving as well). He might triple last week’s rushing performance against the Packers, who are giving up 110 rushing yards per game and the 5th-most FPPG to RBs. This should be a unit to pick on all season, as they only have one impact run defender and currently grade as PFF’s 9th-worst run defense unit. Forte averaged 168 total yards and 2 TDs vs the Packers last year – there’s no reason he can’t replicate that average this year. Forte is the top RB play this week.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	45.5	19.25				-7	45.5	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	14.3	31	29	16		Offense	31.7	3	1	22
Defense	31.7	3	1	22		Defense	14.3	31	29	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	28	30	14	28		Tennessee Titans	2	11	6	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	22	14	1	121		Wayne	25	16	0	188
Washington	15	5	0	60		Hilton	28	16	0	186
Hunter	21	8	0	126		Nicks	12	10	2	82
Walker	25	17	2	233		Allen	12	8	2	107

Quick Grind

•Vegas suggests Colts should win easily
•Colts WRs have tough matchups
•Avoid Titans if Jake Locker doesn’t play

Tennessee Titans

UPDATE: QB Jake Locker is unlikely to play, and Charlie Whitehurst is expected to start. In my opinion this makes the Titans offense unusable. Upgrade the Colts Defense, as well as their RBs… this one might hurt.

QB Jake Locker?
Locker has a question mark next to his name because he might not even play this week, thanks to a wrist injury he sustained in Week 3. If he doesn’t play, Charlie Whitehurst will likely get the start. In that case, I think the entire Titans offense should be avoided. The Colts aren’t a great defense, but Charlie Whitehurst can make any defense look good.

TE Delanie Walker
Walker may be able to retain value regardless of the QB, as both Locker and Whitehurst rely on him as a safety valve. Still, Locker is injured and Whitehurst is terrible, so Walker isn’t exactly an exciting option given that his price is still elevated from his 10-142-2 performance vs the Cowboys in Week 2.

RB Shonn Greene / Bishop Sankey
Greene doesn’t care which QB is under center, as he faces a Colts defense allowing the 7th-most FPPG. If the Titans get the ball first they may be able to ride Greene for a few series before the Colts blow the game open. Should the game get truly out of hand, I think it’s likely we see extended work from promising rookie RB Bishop Sankey. It’s an odd take on fishing for garbage time production, but you could do worse with a GPP punt.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck
Last week I wrote that Luck might not need to do much for the Colts to win vs the Jags, so natural he threw for 370 yards and 4 TDs. So let’s try this again: in a game the Colts should dominate start to finish, QB Andrew Luck might not have to do much for his team to win. Enjoy everyone. But really, I think Luck’s performance may be a little subdued this week given the strength of the Titans pass defense, and how well their top DBs matchup with the Colts top WRs. The Titans are currently PFF’s 8th-best coverage unit and are allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to QBs. You can’t rule Luck out completely, of course, but I think the matchup is good justification to pivot to a similarly priced QB with a better matchup.

WR Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton
Wayne and Hilton are Luck’s top two targets but also draw unfavorable matchups this week. Wayne has played 74% of his snaps from the slot and will see CB Coty Sensabaugh, who has allowed the fewest yards per cover snap of qualifiying CBs this season. Hilton only averaged 45 receieving yards vs the Titans last year and will tangle with CB Jason McCourty, who is only allowing a QB rating of 54.2 in his coverage this season. With neither WR having a favorable matchup, it makes sense to pivot to better options in their price range.

TE Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener
I think Luck’s most likely source of success will be throwing to his TEs. The Titans were weak vs the TE last year, and have poor coverage LBs. Unfortunately Allen and Fleener seem to cannibalize targets from one another. Fleener did go for 8-107 against the Titans in one game last season, beating LBs and safeties the Titans are still starting in 2014. He could be poised to exploit those matchups again this week.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Every week I’m surprised by how great Ahmad Bradshaw looks, and then I pull up his info and remember he’s only 28. His 1200+ yard rushing season from 2010 seems so long ago. However, Bradshaw’s burst is evident again this season, and it translated to 83 total yards and a TD on 10 touches in Week 3. He’s an integral part of the Colts passing attack, and operates as both the third-down and red-zone RB. He should have another strong outing this week as the Titans allow the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs. Bradshaw is a solid #2 RB option on full PPR sites.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2