NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-29 21:27:37

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

New England Patriots						Kansas City Chiefs
Mon – 8:30 PM						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	45	24.25				3.5	45	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	14	22	21		Offense	20.3	22	25	9
Defense	20.3	22	25	9		Defense	22.0	14	22	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	25	9	21	24		New England Patriots	1	25	1	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	28	22	1	260		Bowe	11	6	0	72
Amendola	7	3	0	16		Avery	22	12	0	110
Thompkins	11	6	0	53		Hammond	2	1	0	22
Gronkowski	23	11	2	116		Fasano	12	8	1	91

Quick Grind

•Vegas buying the Pats O and not buying the Chiefs at home
•Edelman is a full PPR beast
•Will Gronk break out this week? What about baby-Gronk?
•Chiefs RB situation still murky
•Avoid Chiefs WRs

New England Patriots

QB Tom Brady
Brady has struggled so far in 2014: his completion percentage is at a career low, and he’s averaging only 210.7 yards per game. He managed only 234 yards and 1 TD vs the lowly Raiders in Week 3 (though he had another TD pass dropped). This week Brady faces a Chiefs defense that has the 9th-worst coverage grade on PPF, and is allowing the 8th-most FPPG to QBs. That should be a recipe for success, but the Patriots OL is also coming off a game where they allowed 2 sacks, 4 hits, and 11 hurries to the Raiders. Pats LT Nate Solder has the second-worst pass-blocking grade of all OTs, and will face LB Tamba Hali and the Chiefs 2nd-ranked pass-rush. If the Pats had trouble with the Raiders, I don’t see how they survive the Chiefs. Most of Brady’s struggles this season have come from having no time to throw, and this week should be no different. He’s a GPP QB at best.

TE Rob Gronkowski
Gronk hauled in another TD in Week 3, but not much else, finishing 3-44-1. He said this week that he’s ready for more work (he only played 58% of snaps in Week 3). Hopefully Belichick will oblige, as the Chiefs are giving up the 9th-most FPPG to TEs and are tied for the 4th-most TDs allowed. Crucially, though, the Chiefs have no one to cover Gronk. The Chiefs are missing their top 2 coverage options for TEs, in All-Pro MLB Derick Johnson and SS Eric Berry. Without Johnson and Berry, Gronk will be free to do Gronk things. He’s a top TE option with elite upside if the Pats allow him to play more snaps.

WR Julian Edelman
Edelman is simply excellent on full PPR sites. He commands a large target market share, beats seemingly any coverage, and posts consistent strong performances despite a variety of weapons surrounding him. He was the lone offensive bright spot for the Pats in Week 3, posting a 10-84 line vs the Raiders. This week he’ll primarily face CB Marcus Cooper, who has allowed 13-207-2 and a 139.6 QB rating in two 2014 games. Edelman should have no problems with Cooper and is a top-10 WR option on full PPR sites.

RB Steven Ridley
Last week Steven Ridley faced a Raiders D that was allowing 181 rushing yards per game and managed just 19-54. This week he faces a Chiefs D that allows 119.7 rushing yards per game (7th-worst) and is missing key personnel for their run defense. It’s a solid matchup, I’m just not sure how much I trust Ridley if he doesn’t find success early. I worry Bellichick will find a coverage matchup to exploit with Vereen and Ridley won’t get the carries he needs to be valuable. However if you like Ridley, the Chiefs can certainly be run on.

RB Shane Vereen
I suggested it was a Ridley > Vereen game for the Pats last week, but I didn’t think Vereen would manage only a paltry 37 total yards. I think he’s in store for a bounce-back here, as the Chiefs will be without 2013’s top coverage MLB Derick Johnson. Vereen should make the KC LBs look silly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs use their sub package whenever Vereen is the RB just to get a more capable defender covering him. If the Chiefs stay base, or Belichick is gameplanning specifically for Vereen’s mismatches, he’ll be a strong full PPR play this week. His ownership should be low as well following two poor box scores.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles / Knile Davis
Charles may play this week, but fortunately/unfortunately it’s the Monday night game — Charles will have more time to heal, but we probably won’t have a good idea of his availability before rosters lock. If Charles can’t go it will be another start for Knile Davis, who racked up 32-132-1 vs the Dolphins in Week 3. Whoever starts, they have an interesting matchup with the Jekyll and Hyde Pats run D, who are allowing the 12th-most FPPG to RBs, but have looked either porous or stout depending on the scheme and matchup this season. Given the risk regarding Charles health and limitations, I would avoid the situation altogether this week.

WR Dwayne Bowe
Bowe can’t catch a break this season. First he was suspended, then he faced Aqib Talib, then Brent Grimes, and now he gets Darrelle Revis. Check back again next week.

TE Travis Kelce
Kelce is probably the only Chief worth playing this week (given the uncertainty at RB). Kelce only played 65.2% of snaps in Week 3 but managed 3-36-1 and is clearly becoming a prominent target in the passing game. The Chiefs are also reportedly looking to employ more 2-TE and 3-TE sets (presumably because their WRs are horrible), which will force Kelce onto the field even more. After years of throwing to Vernon Davis, Alex Smith knows the value of an athletic TE, especially in the red-zone; he will continue to look for the 6’5, 260lb Baby Gronk. Kelce is a punt TE with gobs of upside this week, with the added bonus of giving you someone to sweat on Monday Night Football.

Travis Kelce is a much better way to end than Jeff Cumberland, don’t you think? Hope you enjoyed the Grind Down this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet at me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!