NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-28 03:11:52

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta Falcons						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 4:25 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	46.5	24.75				3	46.5	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	34.3	1	3	10		Offense	16.7	28	31	25
Defense	16.7	28	31	25		Defense	34.3	1	3	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	5	14	9	25		Atlanta Falcons	8	32	12	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	33	23	3	365		Patterson	17	11	0	143
White	15	10	1	114		Jennings	19	12	1	132
Douglas	17	12	1	121		Wright	6	3	0	37
Toilolo	11	7	1	57		Ellison	4	2	0	46

Quick Grind

•Target the Falcons
•Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater makes his 1st start and is a strong GPP target
•Vikings offense has upside vs poor Falcons D

Atlanta Falcons

QB Matt Ryan
Ryan is coming off a 268 yard, 3 TD performance in Week 3, and didn’t even need to play the whole game. His Week 4 opponent, the Vikings, appear a stronger pass defense than they are, grading as the 12th-worst pass defense on PFF. The Vikings simply don’t have the personnel to stop the Falcons outside WR duo – Ryan will exploit this all day and is a top-5 option at QB this week.

WR Julio Jones
9 catches, 161 yards, 2 TDs. There’s no question that Julio is elite, there’s no question that he’s healthy, and there’s no question that he should torch the Vikes. He’s WR 1B to Calvin Johnson’s 1A this week.

WR Roddy White
White’s no slouch, though he missed out on the fun vs the Bucs in Week 3. He should be in for a top-15 day on full PPR sites.

WR Devin Hester
Hester’s usage thus far in 2014 has been very intriguing. He scored a TD last week on a reverse, and has been a legitimate target in the passing game as well. In games against bad offenses, consider pairing Hester with the Falcons Defense – If Hester runs one back, you’ll get double the return (see what I did there).

Flock of RBs: Steven Jackson (Jacquizz Rodges, Antone Smith, Devonta Freeman)
While Steven Jackson is the starter for the Falcons, the other 3 RBs above steal carries and passing work, to the point where even Jackson’s value is suppressed. If 50-70 yards and a possible TD is your thing, SJax might be your guy this week.

Minnesota Vikings

QB Teddy Bridgewater
And so the Bridgewater era begins in Minnesota. Bridgewater came on in relief of injured QB Matt Cassel last week and looked serviceable as a passer, completing 60% of his passes for 150 yards. He also was shifty as a runner, adding a 6-27 rushing line, and attempting a few jukes in the open field. Bridgewater’s strengths will be his short-intermediate passing accuracy and mobility. He matches up this week against a Falcons defense allowing the 13th-most passing yards per game (254.7). The Falcons grade out as slightly below average in both pass rush and coverage on PFF – but even those mediocre grades are inflated by their domination of the Bucs in Week 3. This Falcons defense is not talented – they have horrible LBs, exploitable safeties, and only one solid CB to avoid. While the Vikings are not a great team, and now lack a running game, I think Bridgewater has a favorable matchup here. His skillset complements Cordarelle Patterson’s ability in space, and he should be able to churn out 20-30 rushing yards with ease as well. Given his basement price across the industry, Teddy makes an excellent GPP punt play at QB.

WR Cordarelle Patterson
Maybe the QB change will force the Vikings coaching staff to wake up and force-feed Patterson the ball – they have no other options. He is simply not good enough as a route-runner to be relied on like a traditional #1 WR; he needs to be schemed the ball. Logic would tell you that we’ll see plenty of WR screens, motion, and quick-hitters to Patterson to help Bridgewater get in a rhythm. But let’s be honest, the Vikings aren’t the most logical organization. In vanilla sets, Patterson will primarily see Falcons CB Rob Alford, who was abused last year but has improved so far in 2014. It’s not a matchup to avoid, so Patterson remains a GPP option in the hopes that the Vikings use him correctly this week.

WR Greg Jennings
Jennings went 5-70 last week vs the Saints and figures to see Falcons top CB Desmond Trufant a lot in this game. I assume Jennings will be running comfort routes for Bridgewater, which could make him a sneaky full PPR option even in the face of yet another difficult CB matchup. You can certainly do better this week, but Jennings is currently a more reliable target than Patterson until the playcalling changes.

TE Rhett Ellison / MarQueis Gray
Starting TE Kyle Rudolph is injured. The Vikings TE situation beyond Rudolph is… interesting. #2 TE Rhett Ellison is actually one of the Vikings better players, but he is primarily a blocker. Prior to the season the Vikings also signed H-Back/TE MarQuies Gray. Gray was a former college QB (for the Minnesota Gophers, oddly enough), and has been used as an athletic receiving option. The Vikings love to run multiple TE sets, and even debuted a 3-TE set last week before Rudolph was hurt, so both replacement TEs figure to see a healthy number of snaps. Here’s how their usage broke down last week:

I think we’ll see a pretty clear usage split emerge where Gray runs the routes and Ellison remains primarily a blocker. The Vikings don’t have an overly reliable #3 WR, so they figure to use 2-TE sets often to try and give their running game a boost. If you want to take a GPP flier on a Vikings TE before we see how it shakes out, I recommend Gray.

RB Matt Asiata
Matt Asiata is boring, but the Vikings continue to rely on him, so here’s what I wrote last week: “everyone who has ever written about Asiata will quickly point out his lack of athleticism and upside. Regardless, he is a starting NFL RB, and there’s value in that role. He is a punt RB option again this week.” Asiata has a favorable matchup this week as the Falcons allow the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs, and Asiata has been adding value in the passing game recently as well. He could exceed very low expectations as a punt RB this week.

Others
RB Jerick McKinnon will be down here until 1) he plays better (drops, horrible pass pro, etc in Week 3), or 2) the Vikings give up on Matt Asiata.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:25 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	50.5	22.5				-5.5	50.5	28
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	33.7	2	4	14		Offense	20.7	19	20	13
Defense	20.7	19	20	13		Defense	33.7	2	4	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	22	6	31	8		Philadelphia Eagles	31	18	30	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	30	16	3	296		Crabtree	24	19	2	187
Cooper	17	9	0	71		Boldin	21	16	0	169
Matthews	18	11	2	113		Johnson	15	13	0	162
Celek	9	3	0	15		Davis	9	7	2	83

Quick Grind

•Lots of offense projected in this one
• _The Eagles OL is decimated by injury
•49ers offense gets a valuable boost in play volume

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Nick Foles
With mounting injuries to the Eagles offensive line, and a stagnant run game outside the occasional big play, Chip Kelly has evolved his offense into a high-volume passing attack. After throwing 35 attempts and 300+ yards only twice in 2013, Nick Foles has already thrown over 35 attempts and 320 yards in each game this season, including two 40+ attempt games. The pass-heavy scheme has been paying dividends for both the Eagles and DFS players, with Foles fresh off a 325 yard, 3 TD carving of the Redskins secondary in Week 3. Expect similar volume this week given both the injury-riddled Eagles offensive line, and their matchup against a 49ers team that has the 3rd-best run defense grade on PF; the Niners stout run defense should force the Eagles to attack their secondary instead, which has endured a significant fall from grace (2nd-best coverage grade in 2013) and is allowing the 11th-most FPPG and tied for 3rd-most passing TDs to QBs in 2014. Vegas favors the Niners in this one, so if the game flow goes as projected, Foles should again see enough volume to rack up the yards and TDs to make him a top-6 option at QB. He likely won’t be a popular pick this week given the perception of the Niners D, but there’s nothing wrong with taking Foles as your QB this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin
So far, so good for Jeremy Maclin’s ‘prove it’ year. I’ve been a huge Maclin fan since he was drafted and I’m not surprised he’s emerging into a true #1 weapon in this offense. It’s a shame he’s battled injuries, as he was a triple threat (receiving, rushing, returning) coming out of college. It would be scary to see Chip Kelly use him as a Harvin-lite. We can’t complain about the receiving production so far though: In three games so far, Maclin has been both a consistent target (9+ targets in each game) and scoring option (TD in each game). Last week was his best performance of 2014, as he abused the Redskins secondary repeatedly for 8-154-1, and a SECOND TD that was called back. Foles’ accuracy has been an issue at times, but the targets are there, and in this offense that’s basically fantasy gold. This week Maclin faces a Niners secondary giving up the 2nd-most FPPG to WRs, which will also be without top CB Trumaine Brock. With the Niners already having severe communication issues between their CBs and safeties (which led to 2 TDs last week alone), Maclin could be in for an explosive day.

WR Jordan Matthews
Maclin wasn’t the only Eagles receiver to perform well last week, as Jordan Matthews decided to stop dropping passes and score a few TDs instead. Matthews took advantage of the Redskins decision to not cover him at all on his seam-route TDs, finishing 8-59-2. This week Matthews has a pretty good chance to add to his recent success as he’ll face off with 49ers slot man Jimmy Ward, who is likely still smoldering after being burnt for multiple passing TDs in consecutive games. Ward has been beaten both by a savvy physical specimen (Brandon Marshall) and a flat out burner (John Brown), and now gets the 6’3, 212 lb Matthews who also has 4.46 wheels. Beyond the measurables, it sure looks like a favorable matchup for Matthews given their respective performances so far:

To compound the physical mismatch, Ward and his safety help have not been on the same page, particularly on one of the TDs last week. If that doesn’t get cleared up before Sunday, expect the numbers in the table above to increase across the board. Matthews makes for a high-upside #3 WR this week.

TE Zach Ertz
I’m pretty high on Zach Ertz as a breakout TE this year, but last week we saw his unfortunate floor in this multiple-look, multiple-weapon offense. I don’t anticipate a bounce-back this week vs a 49ers team that features two of the best MLBs in the NFL in Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis. Fortunately for Ertz, Bowman is injured, leaving Willis to split his coverage between Ertz and Sproles. It should provide Ertz a tad more breathing room than if both 49ers LBs were healthy, but is still a poor matchup. Ertz is always a threat to find space in the end-zone, but given his likely cover, and the favorable matchups for the Eagles WRs, I think you can find more reliable options at TE this week.

RB LeSean McCoy
Whereas the Eagles receivers have the favorable matchups in this one, McCoy faces the 3rd-toughest run defense (per PFF), that is also allowing the 4th-fewest FPPG to RBs. With three replacement starters on the OL this week, expect constant backfield penetration and a lot of dancing from Shady as he tries to do the work himself. Very few RBs have been able to overcome a garbage OL when playing a stout run defense this season. Given his suspect OL, poor matchup, and recent injury, McCoy is a recommendation for contrarian GPP lineups only. The aforementioned factors will certainly depress his ownership % this week though.

RB Darren Sproles
Hopefully you took the advice in last week’s Grind Down and pivoted off Sproles. He’ll have his days, but I doubt we’ll be able to predict them. His role on the Eagles presents an interesting dilemma for the 49ers, though: with only one healthy elite coverage LB to cover Ertz and Sproles/McCoy, the 49ers will be placed in a double bind. They will either accept a terrible mismatch by using one of the replacement LBs in coverage, or have to commit one of their safeties into coverage… increasing the risk of deep shots downfield. The 49ers had success with this approach the last time they faced Sproles (Week 11, 2013), holding him to 4-19, and limiting Jimmy Graham to 6-41. I’m not sure we can expect such dominance this time around. Sproles makes a risky but intriguing GPP play in the event that the Niners didn’t work out the kinks in coverage this week.

Others
WR Riley Cooper is still just a guy that likes country music.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick
I have a feeling that Colin Kaepernick is on the verge of a breakout stretch. His rushing output is higher than it’s ever been in the regular season, as he’s averaging 43 yards per game. Defenses have been especially slow to react thus far, and I assume additional wrinkles are coming that could provide the explosive totals we’ve seen from him in the playoffs. He’s also supplementing with modest but highly accurate passing lines. And in Week 3 we saw the 49ers running 4- and 5-WR sets (no joke) more than they have in years, which led to strings of easy completions for Kaep and a quick 14 points. Now consider that the 49ers are playing the Eagles and their frenetically paced offense. Kaep and Co will have additional play volume to work with, with the added bonus of facing a defense giving up the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs. It’s a recipe for lots of fantasy goodness. Kaep has top-5 QB upside this week, and is an excellent GPP option.

WR Michael Crabtree
Looks like somebody’s healthy. Michael Crabtree officially shook off any remaining rust last week on his way to a 10-80-1 line vs the Cardinals and arch-nemesis Patrick Peterson. As long as he remains healthy, it seems Crab will be a consistent and preferred target both between the 20s and in the red-zone. He should have a strong performance again this week against an Eagles secondary that was throttled for over 400 passing yards and 3 TDs by the Redsksins; the Eagles outside CBs were frequently abused by Redskins WRs Pierre Garcon (11-138-1) and DeSean Jackson (5-117-1) and have two of the three worst coverage grades on the team. As a unit, the Eagles are now allowing the 3rd-most FPPG to WRs. All this shapes up nicely for Crabtree, who makes for a strong stack partner with Kaepernick, and is a solid option on both .5 and full PPR sites.

TE Vernon Davis
Davis is still working his way back from injury, but reports are that he will play this week. Be sure to keep an eye on his status because Davis has several factors working in his favor here: 1) the Eagles recently faced their first athletic receiving TE last week in Redskins TE Niles Paul and were routinely beaten as he racked up 6-68, 2) the Eagles best LB (Mychal Kendricks) hasn’t practiced this week, and his replacements are absolute garbage, and 3) the 49ers should both move the ball with ease, and have additional plays and drives, which means more red-zone opportunities for the TD-specialist Davis

RB Frank Gore
I’m leery about Gore this week. He only received 6 carries vs the Cardinals in Week 3. Six. The Niners opted to spread the Cards out with 4- and 5-WR sets instead, which worked wonderfully early. With the return of TE Vernon Davis, who is also one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL, hopefully they reestablish the run game this week. But until they do, I’m not going to risk using Gore, even as a #2 RB or FLEX.

Others
I don’t like #2 WR Anquan Boldin or #3 WR Stevie Johnson this week, for two reasons: 1) Vernon Davis coming back should eliminate much of Johnson’s impact and also leech targets from Boldin, and 2) Both receivers kick into the slot, which is the only coverage strength in the Eagles secondary. Until we see more from the 49ers 4-5 WR sets, it’s risky to assume either WR is a safe bet, especially with the return of Davis.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans Saints						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 8:30 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	53	28				3	53	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.0	7	9	1		Offense	25.7	8	26	8
Defense	25.7	8	26	8		Defense	26.0	7	9	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	18	3	7	32		New Orleans Saints	24	26	26	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Colston	13	7	1	135		Bryant	27	20	2	247
Stills	9	7	0	63		Williams	14	8	2	102
Cooks	24	18	1	168		Beasley	8	6	0	61
Graham	31	24	2	254		Witten	18	10	0	95

Quick Grind

•Another Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Play Everyone!
•Highest Vegas total = maximum fantasy goodness
•Both teams’ playmakers are viable
•Jimmy Graham may post video game numbers this week

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees
Brees has underwhelmed thus far in 2014, but a date with the porous Dallas D, in a game with the highest Vegas total of the week, is not the time to lose faith. The Cowboys are PFF’s 7th-worst coverage unit, although they return their top DB and replace their worst. Brees should have the 300+ yard, 2+ TD game we’ve been waiting for this week.

TE Jimmy Graham
Let’s forget for a moment that Jimmy Graham is Jimmy Graham, and only consider the Cowboys performance against TEs in 2014:

Naturally this adds up to the Cowboys allowing the most FPPG to TE in the NFL. Jimmy Graham happens to be the best TE in the NFL. You know what to do.

WR Brandin Cooks
Rookie Brandin Cooks is second on the team in targets, and his target volume and high-percentage routes have given him a high floor in DFS. In this likely shootout Cooks should again see a high number of targets, and has the upside to torch the inconsistent Cowboys secondary.

WR Marques Colston
Over the past two weeks Colston might seem to be an afterthought. He’ll get back in the mix this week, I promise.

RB Khiry Robinson
Robinson did what we thought he would last week as the starting RB – looking like a capable bell-cow RB and rushing for 18-69. He missed out on a goal line TD, but it was a game script anomaly, not a planned vulture by Pierre Thomas. Robinson will again see the majority of the carries this week, and makes for a salary relief #2 RB.

RB Pierre Thomas
Same song and dance for Thomas, who racked up 11 touches, 51 yards, and a TD in Week 3. He’ll get you catches and a few carries, but his ceiling is limited.

Dallas Cowboys

QB Tony Romo
I’ve been advising that people avoid Romo in DFS since he has seemed clearly physically limited, and the Cowboys playcalling has been minimizing his attempts. We might see Romo in gunslinger form this week, however, as Vegas thinks both teams will be racking up points. With a suspect defense, the Cowboys won’t be able to just give DeMarco Murray 24124987 carries and expect to compete with the Saints – Romo will need to take his shots. The Saints defense was supposed to be strong this year but has so far allowed the 9th-most FPPG to QBs, an impressively high number considering they’ve faced Brian Hoyer and Matt Cassell/Teddy Bridgewater. Romo likely won’t be highly owned given his recent struggles, but heavy pass volume should boost him into the top-10 QBs this week.

RB DeMarco Murray
Just above my tattoo of Le’Veon Bell is a tattoo of DeMarco Murray. Let’s take a moment and reflect on his impressively consistent performance so far in 2014:

Murray couples elite pure running ability with a consistently heavy workload. This week Murray’s equation faces a Saints defense allowing the 13th-most FPPG to RBs. The Saints run D is likely underrated so far in 2014, but Murray is matchup proof. He’ll get his touches again this week and is a top-3 RB option.

WR Dez Bryant
Dez had his Week 3 saved by a 68-yard TD on a busted coverage, but we’ll just sweep that under the rug. He’s a sure thing for 10+ targets this week against a Saints defense that has PFF’s 3rd-worst coverage grade and is allowing the 7th-most FPPG to WR. The one concern here is how the Saints treated Dez in their matchup last year, using a bizarre two-man press coverage that completely shut him down outside a long reception. DC Rob Ryan is just crazy enough to try that again, as the Cowboys haven’t shown anything else in the passing game thus far. Without a completely obnoxious coverage strategy, Dez is a top-5 WR option this week

NFL Grind Down Page 4 – Page 5