NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-29 17:47:18

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders

Miami Dolphins						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 1:00 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4.5	41	22.75				4.5	41	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	24	23	15		Offense	12.3	32	30	30
Defense	12.3	32	30	30		Defense	19.3	24	23	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	6	29	4	13		Miami Dolphins	11	19	3	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	31	17	2	211		Jones	22	15	2	189
Hartline	19	10	1	87		Holmes	9	6	0	74
Gibson	9	5	0	39		Moore	20	8	0	60
Clay	18	12	0	79		Ausberry

Quick Grind

•Play Lamar Miller
•The Dolphins passing attack will be underowned, but they have favorable matchups
•The Raiders (still) suck

Miami Dolphins

MIA QB Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill underwhelmed in what appeared to be a favorable matchup in Week 3, throwing for just 205 yards and 1 TD vs the Chiefs. I’m not angry with him, but I am disappointed. Apparently the Dolphins coaching staff is too, as there’s been absurd talk of benching Tannehill this week. That won’t happen, but the Dolphins may re-focus on the run vs a hapless Raiders defense instead. Tannehill’s numbers look a LOT worse than they are, as he’s already up to 11 dropped passes and has had another 6 batted down. His accuracy has been a legitimate concern, as Tannehill has been on the verge of several big gains to Mike Wallace only to misfire or have difficult catches dropped. Tannehill’s matchup this week actually looks tough, as the Raiders are allowing the 6th-fewest FPPG to QBs… but that’s mainly because teams only need to run against them. There are exploitable matchups for Dolphins RBs and TEs, as well as a weakness on the back end with the injury to Raiders S Tyvon Branch. Few will be rostering Tannehill this week given his box scores and all the bad press, which makes for an interesting contrarian play in GPPs if you think Tannehill and Wallace get on track this week.

WR Mike Wallace
Wallace continues to produce in this offense, pulling in 5-74 last week vs the Chiefs. He could have had a much bigger day (I feel like I say this every week) if Tannehill had been more accurate, but the team-high 12 targets are encouraging. He is the unquestioned top option in this offense and will continue to be fed accordingly. He’s a top-10 option at WR this week, with a high ceiling.

RB Lamar Miller
The top play on the Dolphins this week is definitely RB Lamar Miler. Miller was exceptional last week, rushing for 15-108 (7.2 YPC) and adding 4-24 through the air vs the Chiefs. He was easily one of the top RBs I watched in Week 3, and deserved an extra 10 carries (the Dolphins playcalling literally makes me as mad as RG host Boggslite when he talks about Umpires in MLB) This week, Miller gets to face an already horrible Raiders run defense that has been completely gutted by injuries recently. The Raiders are allowing 147 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, the worst mark in the NFL. If Lamar Miller doesn’t rack up 120 total yards I will be shocked. He’s an excellent RB play this week.

Others
This might be the week Charles Clay puts himself on the map in 2014, but I want to see solid involvement in the offense before I buy in. He’s still working through an injury. WR Jarvis Landry is emerging as the Dolphins slot receiver but really needs the passing game to get on track before he has consistent value. WR Brian Hartline caught a TD last week but nobody cares.

Oakland Raiders

WR James Jones
Jones is the top option in the Raiders ‘passing attack’, and had a decent showing (3-43) last week against Darelle Revis and the Patriots. Unfortunately he runs into another tough matchup this week against Brent Grimes, the best no-name CB in the NFL. Grimes was PFF’s 2nd-best CB in 2013, and should eliminate most of Jones value in this one.

WR Andre Holmes
My favorite Raiders play this week, and one of my favorite sneaky GPP plays for the next few weeks is WR Andre Holmes. Last week I described Holmes as a “Justin Hunter-esque prototypical physical talent” who “could emerge as the Raiders primary big-play WR”, and he showed glimpses last week with a 29 yard catch and defensive pass interference call. Starting Raiders WR Rod Streater broke his foot last week, and reports are that Holmes will either start or at the very least rotate at the #2 WR position opposite James Jones. Derek Carr commented this week about how he loves throwing to Holmes because of the 6’4 WRs catch radius, and how quickly he gets in/out of his breaks. If Carr survives the Dolphins pass-rush this week, I expect him to dial up deep shots to Holmes. There will be an explosive game from Holmes in the next few weeks – mark my words. Will a game in London be the place where Holmes solves the mystery of the missing Raiders offense?

RB Darren McFadden (and MJD, and Latavius Murray)
It sounds like Darren McFadden will be starting again this week, although Maurice Jones-Drew is likely to play. The Raiders running game was ugly to begin with, but now figures to be an ugly committee. There are some weaknesses in the Dolphins run D due to the injuries mentioned above, but DMC is no more than a contrarian GPP play.

Others
QB Derek Carr just hasn’t had the offensive line play or consistent weapons to produce yet. I like his talent, but this is another tough matchup where his OL should be dominated throughout.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens

Carolina Panthers						Baltimore Ravens
Sun – 1:00 PM						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	41	19				-3	41	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.0	18	7	29		Offense	21.7	16	16	12
Defense	21.7	16	16	12		Defense	21.0	18	7	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	9	7	25	2		Carolina Panthers	14	15	11	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	27	16	2	253		Smith	18	6	0	85
Cotchery	8	8	0	78		Smith	32	18	1	290
Avant	14	8	1	66		Brown	2	1	0	15
Olsen	26	19	2	224		Daniels	11	10	2	70

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total of the week limits appeal
•STEVE SMITH REVENGE GAME
•Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is last RB standing
•Avoid Ravens RB stew
•This week will determine if Kelvin Benjamin is matchup proof

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton
Newton is being mentioned because of his name and pedigree here, not because he is an especially appealing play. I’m in a list-y mood right now, so let’s break down what Newton has working against him this week:

• Poor performance in Week 3 vs a weak Steelers secondary that lost their top CB during the game
• Questionable health due to lingering injuries and multiple hard hits last week
• Last week the Panthers called zero designed runs for Newton. Zero. He has 6 rushes on the year and none of them came from zone-read plays
• The Ravens are allowing the 9th-fewest FPPG to QBs
• Ravens CB Jimmy Smith is a physical, shutdown-style CB that may shadow Kelvin Benjamin

We can say that Cam always has GPP appeal, but… he really doesn’t if he isn’t rushing. So until we start seeing the Cam of old getting zone-read calls, and calling his own number at the goal-line, his upside is limited in DFS.

WR Kelvin Benjamin
I love Kelvin Benjamin. I spend my afternoons cutting out pictures of him and putting them on my wall. Hopefully you read the Grind Down last week and rostered him, as he turned a team-high 11 targets into 11-115-1. My 2TD prediction from last week wasn’t far off, as Benjamin was an awkward jump away from another TD and a MASSIVE day. I will be rostering him every week because of his huge target market share and the skill-set I mentioned last week: “Even when he doesn’t get separation, his TE-like size enables him to bully defenders, shielding them from the ball or simply allowing Benjamin to go up and get it. He will be a force in the NFL as long as he doesn’t get fat.” When my only gripe about a player is the risk they may get fat, you need to get on board the train. Now, despite Benjamin’s wonderful DFS skillset, he faces a matchup that will tell us a lot about his prospects for the season. The Ravens will undoubtedly shadow Benjamin with 6’2, 209 lb emerging shutdown CB Jimmy Smith. Smith is a large, physical CB who shouldn’t have a problem sticking with Benjamin, and may have the size to at least contest balls that Kelvin can shield smaller CBs from. I wouldn’t completely avoid Benjamin just because he’s facing Smith, but the matchup could limit his catch and yardage potential. So for one week only, we can still be friends if you don’t roster Benjamin.

TE Gregory Olsen
Olsen is shaping up as an extremely valuable and reliable full PPR TE option for us. Check out his game logs so far in 2014:

It’s hard to find that consistency outside some guy named Jimmy Graham. While the Ravens haven’t seen many targets toward the TEs they’ve faced so far in 2014, their LBs and safeties have struggled in coverage overall. If you play on a full PPR site, Olsen should be your go-to if you aren’t playing Graham this week.

RB DeAngelo Williams
Williams appears to be the last man standing in the Panthers backfield, as Mike Tolbert is on IR and Jon Stewart is likely out as well. It’s an ideal situation for Williams in terms of having carries to himself, but he faces a stout Ravens squad that is PFF’s 11th-toughest run defense unit. In a game with a low total and fairly tight spread, Williams has potential game flow in his favor here. He also doesn’t have to worry about Tolbert the Vulture in the red-zone, or Stewart stealing entire series’. I don’t like the matchup, but given the other aforementioned factors, Williams is likely a top-20ish option this week, and sports a pretty attractive price across the industry.

Others

Repeat after me: the Panthers WRs outside Kelvin Benjamin are a collection of dusty old possession receivers who are unappealing in DFS. On we go.

Baltimore Ravens

WR Steve Smith
Steve Smith faces his old team this week, and if there is one player I would expect to have a great performance in a revenge game, it’s Steve Smith. He’s already seeing a massive share of the targets and is clearly the featured option in the passing game. Add in Smith’s still modest price, and a dose of revenge, and you’ve got a recipe for… probably a strong performance but also a very high ownership percentage. If you’re not on Team Narrative, it might make sense to fade Smith based on the ownership factor. He does have a tough matchup, and you can bet the Panthers will do everything they can to contain Smith, especially since the Ravens now have literally no one else whose had success in the passing game this season.

WR Torrey Smith
Torrey continues to be the underutilized Smith in this offense. There’s hope for brighter days with the reallocation of Dennis Pitta’s targets, and if we assume the Panthers will focus on shutting down Steve Smith, Torrey might be a sneaky option this week. It’s probably an unnecessary risk, but the potential and volume is likely there.

TE Owen Daniels / Kyle Juszczyk
With Dennis Pitta out for the season, there’s a lot of targets to be replaced. The most obvious option to replace Pitta is TE Owen Daniels. Daniels is old, fragile, and has limited athleticism. But he can still be a reliable safety valve. Daniels could be a serviceable punt TE on full PPR sites. But if you want a GPP play…

If you’re taking a Ravens TE this week, I would skip over Daniels and take a shot on FB/TE Kyle Juszczyk instead. I love this kid. Juice was a 4th-round pick at TE in 2013, and the Ravens moved him to FB. He’s been used as a FB, TE, and in the slot – rare versatility for his position. After leading the Ravens in receiving in the preseason, Juice went 3-54-1 in Week 3. I think he presents a unique matchup problem for defenses, and his blocking will keep him on the field all three downs. He might do absolutely nothing this week, but he would be my choice to replace Pitta . Juice is a super sneaky GPP play this week.

RB Stew: Bernard Pierce / Justin Forsett / Lorenzo Taliaferro
Although Taliaferro stole the show with 91 rushing yards in Week 3, Pierce should be back for this one. Reports are that ALL of the RBs will be in play this week. You could take a GPP shot on one of the three getting hot and handling most of the carries, but I would just avoid the situation altogether.

Others
A fourth Ravens receiving option has yet to emerge. QB Joe Flacco is a bore in life and DFS.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:05 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		13	44.5	15.75				-13	44.5	28.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	14.7	30	13	31		Offense	23.0	13	8	26
Defense	23.0	13	8	26		Defense	14.7	30	13	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	26	23	5	3		Jacksonville Jaguars	32	31	24	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Shorts	10	5	1	35		Allen	17	12	0	109
Lee	14	8	0	73		Floyd	11	6	1	148
Robinson	19	12	0	154		Royal	22	12	2	131
Harbor						Gates	18	14	3	185

Quick Grind

•All the Chargers are in play, but will be some of the highest owned players this week
•Jags QB Blake Bortles makes his 1st start and is a GPP target

Jacksonville Jaguars

Update: SD CB Jason Verrett is questionable. Upgrade Allen Robinson

QB Blake Bortles
It only took the Jags 3.5 weeks to back-off their claim that they would start Chad Henne the entire year. And so the Bortles era begins! Bortles played only 1 half in Week 3 but still managed to rack up 223-2-2 through the air and an additional 2-30 on the ground. This kid can and WILL sling it downfield, which is a positive for everyone on the Jags offense. He’s also a capable athlete and should offset an interception each week with his rushing totals. Moreover, Jags beat writers expect the team to implement read-option plays now that Bortles is the QB, similar to what they ran with him in the preseason. The Jags will likely get blown out in this one, which should give Bortles plenty of passing volume. Despite the suffocating effect the Chargers time-of-possession dominance has on opposing offensive production, Bortles is an excellent QB punt in GPPs this week.

WR Cecil Shorts
Shorts went 5-35-1 in his 2014 debut. I’m not sure how helpful the QB change is for Shorts, who was constantly fed the ball by former QB Chad Henne. I assume Bortles has better chemistry with the younger receivers, but Shorts should force passes his way as the best option the Jags have right now. With another projected blowout this week, Shorts should see enough volume to be a serviceable #3 WR.

WR Allen Robinson
I think Robinson is the top stack target if you’re selecting Bortles this week. The athletic rookie went 7-79-1 in Week 3 and his athleticism should lead to big plays going forward.

RB Toby Gerhart
Gerhart continues to disappoint both in production and volume, as his team continues to get buried early and limit his carries playing catch up. Hopefully the QB change, and the Jags move to more 3-WR sets following Mercedes Lewis’ injury will lighten the box for Gerhart. But let’s see that happen before we plug him in our lineups.

Others
WR Allen Hurns had another long TD last week. RB Denard Robinson is getting more touches every week. TE Clay Harbor will make his 2014 debut this week. Fun fact about Harbor: the Eagles moved him to WR for two weeks before they cut him last season. He’s athletic (4.6 40-yd dash) but likes to drop passes.

San Diego Chargers

Note: the ownership of the Chargers core players (Rivers, Brown, Gates, and the Defense) will be MASSIVE this week. Take that into consideration when building your rosters.

QB Phillip Rivers
The Jaguars are allowing 333 passing yards per game and the most FPPG to opposing QBs. No extra analysis is needed.

RB Donald Brown
Brown racked up 31 carries last week. The Jaguars allow nearly 140 rushing yards per game to RBs as well as the most FPPG to RBs. Brown is moderately priced throughout the industry. Again, this one is obvious.

TE Antonio Gates
In a shocking turn of events, the Jags are allowing only the second-most FPPG to TEs. If you aren’t playing Jimmy Graham, Gates makes for a top option (but will be similarly massively owned).

WR Keenan Allen
Allen is likely the only Chargers player whose ownership percentage will be reasonable this week. He only managed 2-17 last week in a favorable matchup with the Bills, and is averaging just 36.3 yards per game so far in 2014. Fear not, though, as this week should be the cure. If Allen can go 5-55 against Richard Sherman and the Seahawks, I think he’ll do just fine against a Jags defense that allows the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs. Considering price and ownership percentage, Allen is likely the best value on the Chargers this week.

Others
In such a favorable matchup, there’s nothing wrong with gambling on WRs Eddie Royal or Malcom Floyd. TE Lardarius Green recently injured his hammy and is questionable for this game.

NFL Grind Down Page 3 – Page 4