NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-28 02:31:33

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Buffalo Bills						Houston Texans
Sun – 1:00 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	41	19				-3	41	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.7	19	27	16		Offense	21.3	17	24	11
Defense	21.3	17	24	11		Defense	20.7	19	27	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	10	17	20	16		Buffalo Bills	19	11	23	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	23	13	1	167		Johnson	27	16	0	191
Woods	17	8	0	102		Hopkins	19	13	2	227
Williams	10	5	0	50		Posey
Chandler	8	7	0	101		Graham	7	6	0	67

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total limits appeal
•Bills running game has a strong matchup

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins
Hey, a rookie WR is being inconsistent! Imagine that. Watkins followed a monster Week 2 with a 2-19 performance last week vs the Chargers. It’s mainly QB EJ Manuel’s fault. My expert analysis: Manuel sucks. But seriously, Watkins electric talent will be limited by the rollercoaster ride that is EJ Manuel. When the Bills got down in Week 2, I anticipated it actually being a positive for Watkins, but it looks like Manuel really can’t be put in comeback situations. Unfortunately the Bills will suffer a similar game script several more times this season (games against DET, NE, DEN, GB, etc.). We can use this to our advantage in DFS as Watkins price is likely to stay reasonable; Manuel’s inconsistency, coupled with the Bills reliance on the ground game in winning efforts should mean Watkins shouldn’t have many games in a row where he does well enough to boost his price. Since many pricing algorithms blend the last few games together as part of the blend that determines a player’s final price, it’s likely we won’t see Watkins price stay high with only one intermittent big games.

This week, Watkins has a very tough matchup as Texans CB Jonathan Joseph will likely be shadowing him. Joseph allowed the 5th-lowest completion percentage in his coverage in 2013. Given the Bills spotty QB play, I would only use Watkins in GPPs this week. Watkins has immense upside, we just need to pick our spots when we chase it. Check back next week if JoJo shuts Watkins down.

WR Robert Woods
Woods’ 4-78 line in Week 1 seems like a distant memory after he’s gone 1-5 and 3-19 the past two weeks. Like Watkins, Woods is also at the mercy of EJ Manuel. However, if JoJo indeed locks down Watkins this week, Woods should be the primary beneficiary. Woods has played 83.2% of snaps in the slot, which will match him up with CB AJ Bouye, who has allowed 16/18 passes completed for 130 yards so far. It’s a good matchup for Woods, but he remains just a risky punt WR on full PPR sites.

RB CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson
If the Bills RBs could fuse together and form one Super-Bill RB, it might be the perfect DFS RB. Unfortunately the Bills employ a pseudo-50/50 split between the high-celing CJ Spiller and high-floor Fred Jackson, with game flow tipping the volume scale toward one or the other. When the Bills are leading, Spiller racks up more carries; but when the Bills get stomped, Jackson sees more work as the passing specialist. Last week was a stomp week, and it showed in the box score as Jackson had 6-34 (5.6 YPC) rushing and 8-78-1 through the air. FJax also racked up a ridiculous 10 targets. That kind of passing volume is extremely valuable on full PPR sites, where Jackson will be in play whenever the Bill are significant underdogs. This week, the duo should both find success vs a Texans team that has the 4th-worst run defense grade and is allowing 125 rushing yards per game to RBs (5th-worst). Any time Spiller has a favorable matchup like this, he’s definitely in play in GPPs. He hasn’t hit the monster runs we’re used which has left his price modest on most sites. Fred Jackson is a high floor option on full PPR sites.

Others
It’s hard to endorse QB EJ Manuel after his abysmal Week 3. He’ll see way too much of Texans DE JJ Watt this week. TE Scott Chandler went 5-74 in Week 3 but won’t offer consistent weekly production.

Houston Texans

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
I need to write up Fitzpatrick each and every week just so I can call him by all his awesome nicknames. After two managerial wins, The Amish Rifle misfired in Week 3, throwing 3 INTs and demonstrating his inability to play from behind. Fitz did hit a few pretty downfield throws, and will need to continue to do so when the Texans can’t get their run game going. He likely won’t need to be too aggressive in this one, as the Texans are slight favorites in a game with a low total. If he can navigate his team into the red-zone, Fitzmagic could capitalize on the ineptitude of the Bills CB duo as they struggle to cover Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. A 2 TD game isn’t out of the question; but neither is 2 INTs.

WR Andre Johnson
I advised Grinders to avoid Johnson last week in his matchup with CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and my fears came to fruition when Johnson managed only 4-24 vs the Giants. Don’t jump off the AJ bandwagon just yet though, as he was looking dominant and reliable the two weeks prior. He still managed 11 targets in the Week 3 loss and should see heavy targets in nearly every game. This week he’ll match up with Bills CB Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has allowed 9-100-2 in two games of action. Johnson should destroy him. Fire AJ up as a top-12 option this week.

WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins was the beneficiary of a few fluky plays in the season’s first two games but legitimately beasted last week en route to a 6-116 day vs the Giants. He’ll draw CB Leodis McKelvin in coverage, who has allowed 14-204-1 and was beaten badly by the Bears large WRs in Week 1. The Texans coaches have said they want to get Hopkins the ball more – he’s a sold #2 WR this week.

RB Arian Foster / Alfred Blue
Foster will be a GTD this week, so you’ll likely need to have contingency plans with different stud RB options if you like Foster, or punt options if you like Blue. Blue started for Foster last week and managed 13-78 vs the Giants. Before you shower praise on Blue’s solid 6 YPC, consider that if you take out his 46-yard run, Blue averaged less than 3 YPC. He’s not incapable, but Blue also isn’t a very appealing talent. The Bills are allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (76.3) and figure to do all they can to stifle the running game and make The Amish Rifle beat them.

Others
TE Garrett Graham is on the verge of becoming a reliable full PPR option after going 5-41 last week. He’s a viable punt, but there might not be many passes thrown by the Texans in this game.

Detroit Lions at New York Jets

Detroit Lions						New York Jets
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1.5	45	23.25				1.5	45	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.3	22	15	20		Offense	20.7	19	28	7
Defense	20.7	19	28	7		Defense	20.3	22	15	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	29	2	29	17		Detroit Lions	4	13	2	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	34	19	2	329		Decker	14	10	1	156
Tate	21	16	0	201		Kerley	24	15	1	141
Ross	6	5	0	43		Nelson	9	5	0	38
Pettigrew	3	1	0	9		Cumberland	13	8	0	82

Quick Grind

•Target the Lions passing attack
•Avoid both teams’ RBs
•Vegas thinks the Jets can hang this week

Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford
The sloppy version of Matt Stafford showed up last week, as the QB threw for just 246 yards, no TDs, and 2 INTs vs the Packers. It looks like we’re in for another Jekyll & Hyde season from Stafford, who demonstrated elite decision-making and throws in week one (22-32, 346 yards, 2 TDs) before self-destructing last week. We should see the elite version of Stafford this week, vs a Jets ‘secondary’ allowing the 4th-most FPPG to QBs. They’ll be covering All-Universe WR Calvin Johnson with a converted safety (insert laugh-track). The Jets defense is in a no-win situation this week: if they double or triple-team Calvin Johnson, WR Golden Tate is more than good enough to make them pay. If they don’t double or triple Calvin, he will simply destroy them. The Jets conundrum is Stafford’s gain – he’s a top-5 option at QB this week.

WR Calvin Johnson
If Calvin Johnson plays this week, he is the #1 option at WR. On we go.

WR Golden Tate
Tate has been an effective 2nd option in the Lions passing game, going for at least 5 catches and 50 yards in the 3rd straight week with his 5-51 vs the Packers. This week Tate faces a Jets secondary allowing the 4th-most FPPG to WRs. He should benefit from them constantly rolling coverage toward Megatron, and makes an upside #2 WR this week.

TE Eric Ebron
Ebron deserves mention this week because TE Joe Fauria was recently injured, which should open up snaps and targets for Ebron against the Jets. He’s a risky GPP option.

RBs Joique Bell & Reggie Bush
I would avoid both Lions RBs this week. The Jets are allowing 35 rushing yards per game. 35. If you must choose one Lions RB, Bush has more upside due to his passing role, but both are contrarian options at best this week.

New York Jets

QB Geno Smith
Geno’s upside is limited when he’s without Eric Decker. The added threat of sacks and turnovers forced by the tenacious Lions defensive line makes Geno a suggested fade this week.

WR Eric Decker
It’s sounding like Decker will play this week, but will be limited. That makes him basically worthless to me in DFS this week. He’s already taken himself out of a game when his hammy tightened up last week – he could very easily reaggravate the injury again and provide us with nothing. Look elsewhere at WR.

WR Jeremy Kerley
With Decker limited at best, that makes Kerley the top option in the Jets passing game. Last week in a similar situation he saw a team high 11 targets. His slot role and high-percentage routes make Kerley a strong option on full PPR sites.

RB Chris Johnson & Chris Ivory
Similar to the Lions duo, I don’t recommend starting RBs against this defense. The Lions completely demolished the Packers run game in Week 3, with DTs Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley frequently leveling Packers linemen. The Jets have said they want to involve Ivory more heavily in the run game, but I’m not sure doing so will give them any more success this week. Both RBs are no more than risky contrarian options this week.

TE Jeff Cumberland
Cumberland gets a shout out here because of a recent report that the Jets intend to feature him in the red-zone. That adds a bit of intrigue to Cumberland as a punt TE this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	44.5	18.5				-7.5	44.5	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.0	29	32	19		Offense	24.3	12	18	5
Defense	24.3	12	18	5		Defense	15.0	29	32	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	16	24	13	29		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21	5	32	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	25	10	1	102		Brown	28	22	3	296
Evans	20	13	0	138		Wheaton	20	15	0	170
Herron	6	3	0	18		Moore
Myers	15	13	0	107		Miller	16	11	0	112

Quick Grind

•Le’Veon Bell is a top RB option
•Favorable matchups for Steelers WRs
•Bucs QB Mike Glennon might make WR Vincent Jackson relevant again

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Vincent Jackson
Jackson has provided very little so far in 2014, with a garbage-time TD the only thing that even slightly salvaged his otherwise horrible 2-15-1 performance in Week 3. Thankfully, hope is on the horizon in the form of old friend Mike Glennon at QB. Glennon’s strategy is basically just to lock onto VJax and hope for the best. We’ll take it. Jackson faces a Steelers defense that has the 10th-worst coverage grade on PFF and will be without top CB Ike Taylor. Given Jackson’s rapidly dropping price and anticipated heavy target volume, he makes for an enticing GPP play this week, despite the slight wrist-fracture (which carries some concern).

RB Doug Martin
There’s not much else to talk about on the Bucs, so I guess we can discuss Doug Martin. Martin is probable this week and beat writers are reporting that he’ll see the majority of work vs the Steelers. The Steelers defense ain’t what they used to be, sporting the 6th-worst run-defense on PFF and allowing the 6th-most rushing yards per game to RBs. They’re also without 2 starting LBs this week, including one of their top players in LB Ryan Shazier. The matchup and anticipated workload make Martin an intriguing #2 RB or FLEX option in GPPs. He won’t be highly owned this week either.

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB Le’Veon Bell
The ‘Le’Veon Bell is an Elite RB’ fan club meetings are getting pretty crowded but I’m glad you could join us. There’s coffee and snacks in the kitchen. Bell is powerful, Bell is elusive, blah blah blah I have his name tattooed on my lower back. Last week, Bell added to his resume by cracking open a tough Panthers defense for 147 rushing yards. This week Bell faces a Bucs defense that was gutted by early injuries to the front seven, but is slowly getting healthier. They’re currently the 11th-worst run defense unit on PFF. You start Bell vs basically everyone, though – he’s matchup proof. Vegas suggests that the Steelers should win easily this week, so game flow should be in Bell’s favor here as well. Hopefully the Bucs can keep it somewhat close so Bell racks up extra carries, because the Steelers showed last week that they’re content pulling their rising star for backup Leg Blount in blowout situations. Bell is a top-3 RB option this week.

WR Antonio Brown
Don’t’ be jealous, Antonio Brown fan club members, he’s matchup proof too! I admitted my love of Brown in last week’s Grind Down, and like Bell he overcame a tough matchup to torch the Panthers for 10-90-2. He is an elite full PPR option, and you should always consider him because of target market share and role in this offense. He’s a high floor and ceiling option this week. Let’s move on.

WR Markus Wheaton
Wheaton draws one of the best matchups of Week 4, against CB Jonathan Banks. Banks has allowed 13-144 and 86.7% of passes completed in his coverage. He’s also missed four tackles already. Wheaton should be able to beat Banks early and often and is a sneaky #3 WR this week.

QB Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben will be a matchup-based GPP play certain weeks this season. This is one of those weeks. The Bucs are allowing the 8th-most passing yards per game and have the worst team coverage grade in the NFL (per PFF). Even prior to their disaster vs the Falcons, the Bucs were struggling in coverage. And with 1 elite WR, an elite pass-catching RB, and a favorable matchup for his #2 WR, Ben makes for a sneaky GPP play this week.

Others
TE Heath Miller is serviceable on full PPR sites, but will be dealing with stud LB Lavonte David in this one.

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