NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-12 15:34:40

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:25 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		8	47	19.5				-8	47	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.0	6	16	2		Offense	27.5	5	11	1
Defense	27.5	5	11	1		Defense	27.0	6	16	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	24	3	23	28		Dallas Cowboys	9	13	5	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	47	32	4	376		Harvin	23	19	0	133
Williams	27	16	5	250		Baldwin	21	14	0	155
Beasley	14	12	0	98		Kearse	12	8	1	106
Witten	28	19	0	215		Willson	5	4	0	29

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks the Seahawks should win with ease
•Seahawks playmakers have high upside vs phony Cowboys defense
•Cowboys playmakers make for interesting GPP options

QB Tony Romo

Romo continues to click along efficiently while the O-line and Murray grind the Cowboys to victory. It’s a wonderful scheme, but not on that will likely pay DFS dividends against the Seahawks at home. There’s very little upside in rostering Romo this week.

RB DeMarco Murray

Murray couples elite pure running ability with a consistently heavy workload and dominant offensive line – the result has been matchup proof thus far in 2014. This week is his first real test, against a Seahawks defense that is allowing just 57.3 rushing yards per game, the 2nd lowest mark in the NFL. It should be a fascinating battle to watch, but not one to invest in in DFS. Murray’s price remains among the elite RBs, yet he faces perhaps the worst possible matchup. There’s not much upside even if he is able to find some success vs Seattle.

WR Dez Bryant

Dez’s success this week will be determined by how the Cowboys decide to use him against #2 CB Byron Maxwell. I assume Linehan and the Cowboys will do as every other intelligent offense has done and scheme their best player away from Richard Sherman. That leaves Maxwell on Bryant, which I’m certain that Dez can exploit. Dez’ price is awfully enticing at 6600 on DK, sitting just below all the elite WRs and even those In the tier below. There’s a reasonable chance Dez can find consistent success against Maxwell, is always a threat for TDs when the offense gets in fade range. Dez is a contrarian elite WR that you can get at a discount.

WR Terrance Williams

Another game, another (long) TD for TW. What’s scary are the opportunities he squanders every week due to drops. His TD or bust production is already tailored specifically to GPP play, but could be even more impactful if Williams starts turning these 2-71-1 games into 3-100-2 by cutting down the drops. This week I anticipate we’ll see Williams challenge the Seahawks secondary deep, but I have a feeling they’ll be ready for about any permutation of deep routes now after being torched by DeSean Jackson and Co last week. Williams is his usual GPP-only self this week, albeit with more risk due to the matchup.

Seattle Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson

”I’m still waiting for a true breakout game from Russell Wilson, and he has a strong opportunity to do so here.“
I was looking for a breakout and all I got was this lousy 122 rushing yard, 3 total TD evisceration of the Redskins? What an amazing performance. But was it simply a game plan unique to the Redskins, or are the chains coming off the Talented Mr Wilson? We’ll find out this week against a Cowboys defense I badly want to see get smacked. I don’t think they have the discipline to hang with Wilson if the Seahawks have the same plan rolling at home. Regardless, the Cowboys don’t present an imposing matchup in any sense. Wilson will be a top QB option for the foreseeable future thanks to what appears to be a new willingness and game plan to weaponize Wilson’s athletic ability.

RB Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn seems to be beasting less on the ground and instead beasting more through the air lately, with 2 straight games with 3+ receptions, 40+ yards, and a receiving TD. This is extremely dangerous versatility to add to a highly efficient volume runner like Marshawn. We’ll see which beast mode prevails against a Cowboys defense that allows 115 rushing yards per game to RBs and is still reeling from the 157 yard, 2 TD beatdown that Arian Foster laid on them last week. A similar ceiling is well within reach for Beast Mode. He’s an elite top-3 RB this week.

WR Percy Harvin

Let’s all have three moments of silence, in remembrance of the TDs that Percy Harvin lost on MNF last week. It says a lot about Harvin’s big-play ability and versatility when he can score 3 separate times from distance, and the defense just continues to have no answer for him. There’s some massive karmic correction coming Harvin’s way soon. Will it come against a Dallas defense that’s playing waaaaaaaay over their heads? Most DVP stats are irrelevant when trying to quantify Harvin’s matchup – he is simply an elite, game-breaking talent that you roster for multiple long TD potential.

TE Luke Willson

A little primer on Willson from Week 1: ” I wrote up Willson in Week 1: “Seattle beat writers have Willson pegged as a breakout player this year as the Seahawks primary receiving TE. Willson certainly has the measurables: he’s 6’5, 251 lbs, and runs a 4.51 40.“

Willson didn’t wow anybody last week (few Seahawks receivers did), but his 3-28 on 4 targets was encouraging. This week he gets a crack at the Cowboys, the worst team in the NFL at covering the TE. There are worse ways to pick a complete punt TE than to pick someone with freak athleticism who is facing the league’s worst TE defense. If you need a punt Willson’s your guy.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

New York Giants						Philadelphia Eagles
Sun – 8:30 PM						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	50	23.75				-2.5	50	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.6	8	10	13		Offense	31.2	1	15	23
Defense	31.2	1	15	23		Defense	26.6	8	10	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	31	19	31	9		New York Giants	15	29	11	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cruz	38	21	1	321		Maclin	57	26	4	440
Randle	40	23	2	189		Cooper	30	19	1	158
Beckham						Matthews	32	19	2	176
Donnell	32	25	4	236		Celek	14	6	0	30

Quick Grind

•Mini Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target ALMOST Everyone!
•The Giants passing attack are great targets
•NYG RB Andre Williams starting for the injured Rashad Jennings

NY Giants

QB Eli Manning

This week Eli Manning will be the proud recipient of a monster fantasy day, courtesy of the Eagles defense. The Eagles routinely make QBs look much better than they are, and allow the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs. Couple that with a high scoring affair and a bump in pace, and Eli could easily finish the week as a top-5 QB.

WR Victor Cruz

Of all the Giants playmakers I’m least high on Cruz in this one. He draws coverage from the Eagles top cover man, Brandon Boykin, who works exclusively from the slot. It’s not a hopeless matchup, but with better opportunities outside, I don’t anticipate Eli forcing many throws to Cruz in this one. He is a risky #2 WR best left for GPPs and/or Giants stacks.

WR Rueben Randle

Randle’s time is coming. He’s seeing consistent targets. He’s seeing consistent targets in the red-zone. He’s clearly having his name called in the huddle. And now he gets a bump in pace against a team that has demonstrated lackluster coverage of outside WRs all year. Randle makes for a strong low-mid price WR in a GPP, with great TD upside.

TE Larry “Legend” Donnell

The Legend has begun to fade in recent weeks, as evil opposing defenses have literally triple-covered the Legend at time to keep him from scoring more TDs. The Legend remains a top-10 TE option in this matchup, although it seems most likely that the Giants scoring will come from mismatches outside.

RB Andre Williams

The bruising Williams inherits the Giants RB crown a lot earlier than anticipated, but has also stumbled on a near-dream matchup against an Eagles defense that allows the 13th-most FPPG to RBs. Williams should have unquestioned reign over all red-zone and goal-line opportunities, which will be hugely valuable in this game, which Vegas projects as one of the highest-scoring affairs of Week 6. Williams comes at quite the discount to the amount of unchallenged supply he’s likely to get, and makes an excellent salary relief RB this week.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Nick Foles

Foles has an interesting matchup this week. On one hand, the Giants are above average in terms of FPPG to QBs. But they have awfully talented corners, and a pass rush that should be able to chew through the Eagles replacement linemen with ease. Foles will most certainly be overlooked this week, in lieu of the QBs with favorable matchups. He and the Eagles offense are always capable of a scoring barrage. If you think Foles has one in him this week, his circumstance makes him an excellent contrarian GPP option.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin leads the Eagles in targets and has nearly twice as many as second place Riley Cooper. It’s this high volume supply that makes him a near-elite WR play every single week. The worry with Maclin this week is not his supply, but rather his matchup. I assume he’ll be shadowed by Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie the majority of the game. DRC is bigger than Maclin, and every bit as fast. If you’re considering Maclin, you have to also consider the possibility that DRC could shut him down outright. I’m not sure that will happen, but I would temper expectations for Maclin. He can always make up ground in a hurry by hauling in a deep ball, but the consistent intermediate routes may be much more contested this week.

RB LeSean McCoy

Every week I want to believe this is the week for McCoy, but every week he seems to dance a little bit more than the week before, as the o-line continues to struggle. The Giants have PFF’s 2nd-highest run defense rating, and are likely getting crucial LB Jon Beason back for this game. I assume the Eagles will try to assert some kind of run game success early again, but I’m not sure it will work against this front. McCoy is theoretically always a GPP threat, but be cautious rostering him as you would have a year ago.

Misfit Toys

TE Zach Ertz simply hasn’t been getting the necessary supply to produce like a top TE. Until that changes he’s a risky play, albeit with TD upside. RB Darren Sproles is the ultimate GPP RB on full PPR sites. He can get you next to nothing, or carry you to cashing. Your weekly Riley Cooper update: still just a guy that likes country music.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers						St. Louis Rams
Mon – 8:30 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	43.5	23.25				3	43.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	20	24	12		Offense	21.0	22	12	20
Defense	21.0	22	12	20		Defense	22.0	20	24	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	17	8	21	11		San Francisco 49ers	8	1	15	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	36	25	2	246		Britt	17	9	1	154
Boldin	36	25	0	303		Austin	6	5	0	67
Johnson	19	15	2	183		Quick	31	21	3	322
Davis	12	9	2	91		Cook	31	19	0	221

Quick Grind

•The 49ers continue to ride Frank Gore, and you should too!
•Avoid the Rams offensive players
•Keep an eye on Vernon Davis’ health

San Francisco 49ers

RB Frank Gore

Frank Gore is a joy to watch. Despite his waning athleticism, Gore’s elite vision and patience keep him hidden from the defense until he’s ready to surge through the hole. The Niners have demonstrated a renewed commitment to running the ball with Gore over the past two weeks, and figure to do so again on MNF. The Rams appear strong vs opposing RBs, yet still allow 119.5 rushing yards per game and own PFF’s 11th-worst run defense unit. Gore will be fed early and often and makes for a high-end #2 RB.

WR Michael Crabtree

Crabtree gets mention here but not as a recommendation. Instead, a word of caution. In back to back games, Crab has played under 60% of the snaps (and under 50% last week). He insists he’s healthy, but the snaps don’t support his claim, nor do the targets, which are going to other WRs even when he’s on the field. A healthy Crab is one of the most target-heavy WRs in the NFL (with Kaep at QB). The difference now should tell you all you need to know. Avoid the situation until we know more or his usage returns to normal.

St. Louis Rams

QB Austin Davis

Austin Davis has impressed in his young career so far – demonstrating strong accuracy while also showing a little gunslinger to his game. But I don’t Davis will look remotely the same in this week’s matchup with the 49ers, who are PFF’s 2nd best coverage unit. They are currently allowing just 14.3 FPPG to QBs, the 8th lowest mark in the NFL. It’s not a matchup I want to roster a young quarterback in. You can find other punt QBs with higher upside this week.

RB Zac Stacy

As of now it seems that Stacy will play Monday night, but whether or not he will have any limitations, or split carries with #2 RB Bennie Cunningham, is still unknown. Stacy already had to battle a defense that allows the fewest FPPG to RB in the NFL., but the possibility of shared carries or injury limitations is too much of a risk when the information may not arrive until Monday. I would look elsewhere at RB.

WR Brian Quick

Quick has been simply tremendous thus far in 2014, and had his best game last week when he whipped the Eagles defense for 5-87-2. If there’s one Rams player that could find individual success against the 49ers, it’s likely Quick, who will attempt to navigate the new-look Niners secondary that has encountered some growing pains along the way this year. It’s a risky play, but if you must have a Rams player, or just someone from the final game, Quick is a reasonable WR option.