NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-13 21:47:00

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Denver Broncos						New York Jets
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-8	47.5	27.75				8	47.5	19.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	29.0	4	1	29		Offense	15.8	30	32	9
Defense	15.8	30	32	9		Defense	29.0	4	1	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	29	7	27	24		Denver Broncos	26	28	8	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	43	21	3	367		Decker	24	14	2	204
Welker	18	13	0	118		Kerley	33	19	1	168
Sanders	42	32	0	435		Nelson	14	7	0	54
Thomas	24	20	7	226		Cumberland	20	10	0	94

Quick Grind

•The entire Broncos passing attack is in play
•Eric Decker REVENGE GAME #TeamNarrative…
•…but keep an eye on Decker’s health – avoid Geno and the Jets offense if he sits

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

Just a week removed from throwing for 479 yards and 4 TDs, Peyton Manning gets a date with a Jets secondary that sports the 6th-worst pass coverage grade on Pro Football Focus, and also allows the 4th-most FPPG and 3rd-most TDs per game to QBs. Peyton is the top QB this week.

WR Demaryius Thomas

From last week’s #GrindDown: ”DT has to have a break out game eventually, and I’ll take a bit of a contrarian angle and say that it’s coming tonight.”.

The scariest part about DT’s 8-226-2 line in Week 5 was that he also had a 77-yard TD called back. The lesson here is simple: when DT is on, he has no ceiling. He’s in the elite top tier of WRs this week.

TE Julius Thomas

After yet another multi-TD game, Orange Julius takes on a defense that allows the 9th-most FPPG to TEs, and is already giving up a TD per game. Don’t be surprised if some of the Jets linebackers call in sick today. Thomas is the top TE play this week.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

Hearing that Sanders went 7-101 is really just par for the course at this point, but what about the fact that Sanders also has yet to catch a TD pass this season? Apparently he’s been letting both Peyton and the coaching staff hear about it this week, so I have a sneaking suspicion that Sanders winds up in the endzone this week. He’s a high-floor/high-ceiling #2 WR.

WR Wes Welker

Welker has begun his 2014 season 6-60 and 7-58, and is averaging 9 targets per game. Target Welker as a reliable full PPR option, knowing that his turn in the Big Game rotation is coming soon.

RB Ronnie Hillman / CJ Anderson / Juwan Thompson

This is the one Broncos position group I would recommend avoiding this week. The Jets are an excellent real-life run defense, allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game along with the highest run-defense grade in the NFL. Their fantasy numbers slipped a bit following the Branden Oliver Experience last week, but the Jets still allow the 7th-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. It’s not a favorable matchup for most teams, let alone a Broncos team whose RB situation is very much in flux. In general I would avoid the situation entirely until we see how the snaps and touches break down, but I also understand the merit of taking a contrarian stab on a Broncos RB in a GPP. So here’s a brief little breakdown about what each RB’s strengths are and how they fit in the Broncos offense:

New York Jets

QB Geno Smith

Same as last week: Any time a QB is even remotely at-risk for an in-game benching, you should avoid him. I’m not sure how Geno survives this secondary and pass rush.

WR Eric Decker OR Jeremy Kerley

Decker seems on track to play vs his old team, but we’ve seen this injury flare up on him before. And as much as I want to promote him as the Jets only true offensive weapon this week… I don’t see much chance of him having any success vs the outstanding shutdown corners of the Broncos. If you can resist the revenge narrative, I would look for a healthy WR instead. If Decker does end up sitting, Jeremy Kerley is the theoretical beneficiary. But he’ll then also meet the same fate. I would avoid the Jets WRs entirely this week (and most weeks).

TE Jace Amaro

Prior to Week 5 there were reports that Amaro’s role in the offense was increasing, and that he would be a featured target. Amaro finished Week 5 with 3 catches for 19 yards. You can do better than 19 yards with a punt TE.

RB Chris Ivory

Ivory again looked strong in Week 5, racking up 44 rushing yards on just 9 carries. Unfortunately his team got blown out and had to scrap the run. Given the odds of the same thing happening this week, I suggest you avoid Ivory. A matchup with the 9th-best run defense unit isn’t very inviting anyway.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:05 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7	43	25				7	43	18
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.6	8	3	28		Offense	12.8	32	29	32
Defense	12.8	32	29	32		Defense	26.6	8	3	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	11	25	9	15		San Diego Chargers	4	14	2	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	35	25	0	269		Jones	28	21	2	272
Floyd	18	12	2	259		Holmes	21	11	1	148
Royal	32	20	4	276		Moore	20	8	0	60
Gates	29	21	5	275		Ausberry	4	2	0	14

Quick Grind

•The Chargers offense should abuse yet ANOTHER horrible team
•Chargers RB Branden Oliver is a great salary relief RB
•The Raiders receivers should get garbage time again

San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers

Rivers has faced (and torched) the Jaguars and Jets the past two weeks, and now gets to face the Raiders? I hope you got your MVP bets in a few weeks ago. Rivers has thrown for at least 280 yards and 3 TDs in 3 of his last 4.. He’s in a great spot to make it 4 out of 5 vs a hapless Raiders squad. The Raiders actually look fairly tough on QBs, but have games against Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick dragging their numbers down. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill dropped 278 and 2 TDs on the Raiders in a blowout Week 4 win – Rivers should have no trouble exceeding that mark this week. He’s a top-5 QB play.

RB Branden Oliver

By now you’ve probably been beat to death with Darren Sproles comparisons, so I’ll keep this simple: This kid is the real deal. After demolishing the Jets elite run defense for 182 total yards and 2 TDs, Oliver faces a Raiders defense that allows 141.1 rushing yards per game to RBs, the most in the NFL. What else do you need to know? Roster him and go get your popcorn ready. Oliver is nearly a must-play on full PPR sites.

TE Antonio Gates

A week after getting shut down vs the Jags, Gates dropped 2 TDs on the Jets. As with the other Chargers receiving options, Gates demonstrates frustrating inconsistency. When he’s open, Rivers will find him; when he isn’t, Rivers knows someone else is so he won’t force it. It’s not a recipe for DFS success as we try to predict when the next break out may be. That said, 2 TD potential from the TE position can only be found in a few players, making Gates a high-upside selection on a weekly basis.

WR Keenan Allen

A week after his 10-135 breakout vs the defensively disinterested Jaguars, Keenan Allen could only muster 3-25 against the equally lowly Jets secondary. The message here is clear: Rivers focuses on making the best throws and decisions, not on throwing to the best receiver. Allen isn’t shaping up as a consistent receiving option, and he shouldn’t be rostered as one either. The matchup suggests upside, but Allen’s target volume and consistency do not.

WRs Eddie Royal and Malcom Floyd

With the Raiders on tap this week, EVERY Chargers WR is in play. Price shop for the cheapest exposure.

Oakland Raiders

WR James Jones

James Jones led the Raiders in receiving in Week 4, with 6 catches for 83 yards. Jones is the de-facto top option in the Raiders ‘passing attack’, and is actually starting to compile reliable #1-esque receiving lines. Unfortunately Jones runs into one of 2014’s best CBs this week – Brandon Flowers. Flowers has been a revelation since coming to San Diego, and should shut Jones down with ease.

WR Andre Holmes

I’m just going to leave this here: ”My favorite Raiders play this week, and one of my favorite sneaky GPP plays for the next few weeks is WR Andre Holmes… There will be an explosive game from Holmes in the next few weeks – mark my words.”
Holmes rewarded the ~2% of people who rostered him with 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD. Granted, the TD came in garbage time, but really the entire game should be considered garbage time for the Raiders. As long as Holmes is getting playing time (92.5% snaps in Week 4) he’ll be a high-upside GPP WR.

RB Darren McFadden (and MJD)

Darren McFadden racked up 72 total yards on 15 touches vs the Dolphins in London, and should remain the figurehead for the Raiders abysmal running game. Thriving off repeated matchups with lesser opponents, the Chargers are allowing just 63.8 rushing yards per game, the 6th-lowest mark in the NFL. When a poor run game meets a strong run defense, it’s usually best to avoid the situation altogether – especially when it involves the Raiders.

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals

Washington Redskins						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:25 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.4	19	9	14		Offense	21.5	21	20	26
Defense	21.5	21	20	26		Defense	22.4	19	9	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	27	2	32	29		Washington Redskins	32	4	20	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	41	26	1	278		Fitzgerald	28	13	0	164
Jackson	37	20	2	364		Floyd	29	12	0	259
Roberts	28	15	2	164		Brown	22	11	3	113
Reed	1	1	0	4		Carlson	10	8	0	115

Quick Grind

•Modest Vegas total and tight spread
•Keep an eye on the health of the Cardinals QBs
•Fire up the Cardinals receivers if Carson Palmer starts
•Redskins offense could be sneaky

Arizona Cardinals

WR Michael Floyd

Floyd and the rest of the Cardinals receivers have struggled with the QB position in flux. As long as Logan Thomas ISNT the starter for the Cardinals, Michael Floyd should be a solid play. The Redskins allow the 13th-most FPPG to WRs and have been lit up repeatedly since DeAngelo Hall was lost for the year. Floyd should be discounted based on recent flops, and makes a sneaky #2 WR if the QB position can find some

RB Andre Ellington

Ellington was monstrous in Week 5, racking up 144 total yards and 2 TDs vs the Broncos. Unfortunately he certainly didn’t look healthy. He also failed to get anything going in the run game, and Cards had to manufacture him touches in space, where he was able to thrive. I anticipate a similar situation this week against a Redskins defense allowing the 4th-fewest FPPG to RBs – Bruce Arians will need to scheme Ellington the ball in order for him to have any success. It makes Ellington a risky play this week. He still makes a fine #2 RB or FLEX on full PPR sites.

Washington Redskins

QB Kirk Cousins

Cousins is coming off a 283 yard, 2 TD, 0 turnover game against the World Champs. The Cardinals are coming off a 479 yard, 4 TD shelling by Peyton Manning and his WR artillery. Advantage, Cousins. Cousins should have a much easier time with the Cardinals, who allow the 6th-most FPPG to QBs and just loss their best (and only remaining) pass rusher. He is shaping up to be a sneaky GPP QB against this reeling Cardinals defense.

WR DeSean Jackson

Jackson, the ultimate GPP play, came through in a big way last week, hauling in long bomb after long bomb en route to a 5-157-1 torching of the Seahawks secondary. Kirk Cousins has shown tremendous deep accuracy targeting Jackson, a trend the duo will look to continue against the Cardinals this week. One week after being eviscerated by Demaryius Thomas and the rest of the Broncos receivers, Patrick Peterson and Co will be tested deep OFTEN by Cousins and Jackson. The best part is, DJax’s price is still just 4900 on DK. GPP-winning upside for a bargain price? Take advantage while you can.

WR Pierre Garcon

Whereas DeSean Jackson exploded vs the Seahawks, Pierre Garcon is coming off a 2 catch, 23 yard disappearing act. Garcon’s target supply has been very inconsistent recently, and until he is again used as the featured chain-moving receiver, I wouldn’t roster him in anything other than GPPs.

RB Alfred Morris

Many will be off Morris this week, due in part to his 29-yard performance against the Seahawks last week, as well as the apparent strength of the Cardinals in run defense. Indeed, the Cards are allowing both the least rushing yards per game, and the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs. On paper it seems like a nightmare matchup for Morris, who can’t catch a break lately. But with a closer look I think that instead of looking at the Cardinals D as a matchup to avoid with RBs, we can look at it as one to exploit. Last week the Cardinals lost arguably two of their most crucial run defenders in DE Calais Campbell and oversized LB Matt Shaughnessy – both Campbell and Shaughnessy were among the top-4 highest graded Cardinals in run defense so far, and both also finished in the top-4 in run defense in 2013. They are simply irreplaceable, especially for a defense that is constantly trying to paper over the holes left by early season injuries to top veterans Darnell Dockett and John Abraham. I don’t see how this defense can possibly continue to function at anywhere near a high-level with injuries to so many core run defenders and pass-rushers. I think HC Jay Gruden will pound Alfred Morris through the void where Calais Campbell once roamed and test the Cardinals replacements. Against this weaker front, I like Morris as a higher-floor, higher-ceiling version of the volume-dependent #2 RB he usually is.

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