NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-12 14:59:57

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1.5	44	22.75				1.5	44	21.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.8	27	19	24		Offense	20.2	26	31	5
Defense	20.2	26	31	5		Defense	19.8	27	19	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	10	22	18	13		Detroit Lions	1	11	4	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	37	22	2	348		Patterson	25	15	0	189
Tate	40	31	1	451		Jennings	29	17	1	235
Ross	10	8	1	121		Wright	24	14	0	196
Pettigrew	8	5	0	40		Ellison	7	4	0	77

Quick Grind

•Target the Lions injury replacement players: Tate and Bell
•Can the Vikings pull out a win?

Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford

Life without Calvin Johnson doesn’t seem very fun for Matt Stafford. At least this week Stafford faces a defense that is less tenacious in nearly all facets. Stafford was running for his life vs the Bills, but should have markedly more time to work against the 8th-worst pass-rush in the league. This should allow Stafford to feed new #1 target Golden Tate, but I’m not sure if the Lions have any other weapons that can step up and give Stafford the boost he needs to justify rostering this week. After one so-so performance and one poor performance without Calvin Johnson, I would pass over Stafford this week in favor of similarly priced QBs with better matchups.

WR Golden Tate

In two games without Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate has racked up 15 catches for 250 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaging 125 receiving yards per game. There’s no reason to expect the trend to end this week. The Vikings defense has looked somewhat rejuvenated under HC Mike Zimmer, but they simply can’t hang with top offenses, and are often caught unaware by trickery and/or big plays. Expect Stafford to look for Tate downfield often as they try to exploit the NFL’s 13th-worst coverage unit on Pro Football Focus. Tate is an elite play at his modest price around the industry and possess both an ideal floor for cash games and high ceiling for GPPs.

RB Joique Bell

Insert “Bell Tolls” joke here. A week after Reggie Bush was slated to shoulder the entire RB load while Joique Bell recovered from injury, the tables have turned, and Bell is now in line for the Lion’s share (see what I did there?). It is the perfect storm for DFS: RB with suppressed price, inherits entire workload, can dominate ground and air touches, and facing a weak run defense. And none of that is factored into Bell’s current price. When these situations occur (especially when established RBs like Bell take on higher volume) you should be considering the replacement player for any lineup you build, until either their role changes, or their price becomes congruent with their supply and other factors. Bell is nearly a must play against a Vikes defense that allows the 8th-most rushing yards and 11th-most FPPG to RBs. He is a solid option in both cash games and GPPs.

Minnesota Vikings

QB Teddy Bridgewater

After a tumultuous past few weeks, Vikings fans finally have a glimmer of hope. Teddy Bridgewater had an excellent starting debut vs the Falcons in Week 4, tallying an efficient 19/30 for 217 yards passing and an additional 5-27-1 rushing. Teddy looked in complete command of the offense, making checks at the line, showing poise in the pocket, and establishing an early rhythm with screen passes and effective play-action. The threat of his rushing kept the Falcons defense honest and improved the efficiency of the Vikings run game, which led to easy conversions for the rookie QB. Despite Bridgewater’s encouraging play in Week 4, there are a few factors working against him this week.

The second is the matchup: the Lions have been surprisingly stout vs the pass in 2014, allowing the 7th-fewest passing yards, and the fewest FPPG to QBs this season. The Lions compound their strength vs the pass by clamping down on opposing run games as well (more on that below) with the NFL’s 3rd-best run-defense. Their pass rush is also a concern: whereas the Falcons sport the 4th-worst pass-rush, the Lions rush is about average, but can generate pressure solely from their four down linemen. All together it doesn’t shape up as an inviting matchup for the rookie signal-caller.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson just needs to get open (hyperlink to story about coach comments). Until he does, he is just a hypothetical GPP play.

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings went for 3-72 in Week 4, but, like Patterson, only had 4 targets. The line is especially disappointing given the generous matchup he faced. The going only gets tougher this week, although Jennings might see enough volume to turn it into a respectable line. There are better options at WR this week.

WR Jarius Wright

Jarius Wright showed how important chemistry can be for rookie QBs, as the connection he built with Bridgewater on the second-team helped the duo hook up for 8-132 in Week 4. Bridgewater was clearly looking for Wright on several plays, and even audibled to WR screens a few times in the 1st quarter. Many are already writing off Wright’s performance – but should we? Wright and Bridgewater have a clear connection, and Wright is used as a high-percentage safety blanket that fits Bridgewater’s strengths. I don’t anticipate Wright’s role in the offense will change until Kyle Rudolph returns, which should mean reliable targets in most matchups. Wright is the Vikings WR I would trust most this week.

RB Matt Asiata

Asiata didn’t score last week on his way to 15-72 vs the Packers, which means he should be due for about 3 TDs this week. In all seriousness, the Lions are not the Falcons. They allow just 69.6 rushing yards per game, the 8th-toughest in the NFL. They have the 3rd-best run-defense grade in the NFL. And they have 2 absolute studs on their D-Line that basically live in the backfield, disrupting whatever offenses are trying to do. Bottom line: I would avoid Matt Asiata this week (of course now he’ll punch in 3 TDs for SURE).

RB Jerick McKinnon

In case you haven’t seen McKinnon run, this is a perfect recreation: “There is a scene in the 2010 film “Get Him to the Greek” where Russell Brand stabs Jonah Hill in the chest with an EpiPen (a la the scene in ‘Pulp Fiction’), sending a dose of adrenaline to Hill’s heart and causing him to surge off the ground and charge out in a frenzy (~0:45 here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNjKak2-NDc). That’s what Jerick McKinnon reminded me of in Week 4, surging his way to 18-135 on the ground (with an overturned TD to boot) vs the Falcons. He looked like he was shot out of a cannon on several of his runs.”

While McKinnon abides by a different set of rules than Asiata due to his game-breaking athleticism, he still isn’t an advised play against this defense. McKinnon is a (unnecessary) contrarian punt RB for GPPs only.

Others

TE Chase Ford has emerged as the primary receiving TE for the VIkes. He pulled in 3 catches for 31 yards last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 1:00 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	44	19				-6	44	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	13.4	31	28	31		Offense	17.6	29	25	17
Defense	17.6	29	25	17		Defense	13.4	31	28	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	20	17	17	23		Jacksonville Jaguars	30	31	28	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Shorts	14	7	1	60		Wright	38	25	3	223
Lee	14	8	0	73		Washington	26	10	0	137
Robinson	37	22	0	243		Hunter	31	12	1	237
Harbor	12	11	0	91		Walker	36	26	3	364

Quick Grind

•Titans receivers are strong plays this week
•Fire up Bishop Sankey if he gets the start
•There’s a STORM brewing!
•Can the Jags bounce back from last week’s disappointment?

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Injury Alert: RB Toby Gerhart is OUT for Week 6 – Upgrade Storm Johnson

RB Storm Johnson

A Storm is brewing (sorry) down in Jacksonville. With Toby Gerhart already ruled out this week, Storm Johnson should be in line for a large share of carries. Jags HC Gus Bradley has gushed about Johnson since he led the team in rushing with 4-27 in Week 5. Yes, a 4-27 rushing performance is something to get excited about in Jacksonville these days. Though the Jags have been abysmal running the ball so far, the Titans are allowing 125.6 rushing yards to RBs. It’s enough to consider Johnson as a GPP salary relief RB this week.

QB Blake Bortles

Bortles was perhaps the most predictable of the colossal disappointments from Week 5. He’s a rookie – a raw rookie – after all, on the league’s worst team, with a bottom-5 offense, and an offensive line playing horribly. Did I miss anything? Given those factors, seeing that Bortles threw for just 191 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs, really shouldn’t surprise us all that much. Yet most people that were burned by Bortles won’t be willing to go right back to him, even though his matchup this week is plenty favorable. The Titans are the 11th-worst coverage unit in the NFL. They also allow the 13th-most FPPG to QBs. And most importantly, the Titans are coming off a devastating loss in which they coughed up a 25 point lead. The Titans could easily come out flat here and play down to the young Jags. It’s about as good of a bounce back spot as Bortles will have all season.

WR Allen Robinson

Robinson is being fed like a true #1 WR, racking up 11 targets in Week 5 and hauling in 5 of them for 51 yards. The Jags are clearly trying to leverage Robinson’s athleticism and possible open-field talent as if he were Cordarrelle Patterson, so all his work is coming on short throws. It’s only lead to ‘meh’ results, and I’m hoping that as the Jags loosen the reins on Bortles, Robinson will be sent on deeper routes as well. I’ve heard and read multiple accounts of how excited Jags HC Gus Bradley seemed when talking about Robinson, and how clear to outsiders it was that the coaches thought Robinson was their guy. He’s going to be given every opportunity to succeed, so I don’t think the supply lets up at all. It’s only a matter of time before it pays off. This week Robinson has an excellent opportunity to perform against a struggling corner in Titans CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson. Wreh-Wilson has the worst overall grade of 102 qualifying CBs, as well as the 2nd-worst pure coverage grade. It’s a matchup that Robinson should win, and adds to his appeal as a GPP WR this week.

Jaguars Receivers 1A, 1B, 1C…

The rest of the Jags receiving corps beyond Robinson have roles that are constantly shifting. A Jags reporter recently suggested that Robinson and Hurns will continue starting even when everyone else’s hamstrings are healed. That means that original starting WRs Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee would be bumped down to the #3 and #4 spot, and feature primarily in the slot role. Until we know more about how the snaps and targets will be distributed, I would avoid the non-Robinson Jags WRs entirely.

TE Clay Harbor

Clay Harbor’s targets were cut in half this week (from 8 to 4), and he predictably couldn’t replicate his strong debut. Which is more indicative of what we’ll see from Harbor on a weekly basis, 8-69, or 3-22? I’m thinking somewhere in the middle, but given the target volatility in this offense and the shifting roles at WR, I would avoid Harbor until we know more.

Tennessee Titans

Key Injury Alert: QB Jake Locker is Questionable for Week 6 – Charlie Whitehurst likely to start
Key Injury Alert: RB Shonn Greene Doubtful for Week 6 – Upgrade Bishop Sankey

TE Delanie Walker

I think Walker is the most likely player to benefit from the change to Whitehurst at QB. Whitehurst leaned on Walker heavily in Week 4, connecting both on short safety valve routes and attacking the middle of the field with seam routes. Walker ended up with 5-84-1 with Whitehurst at QB, and actually dropped a 2nd TD that could have made his day monstrous. The duo clearly are on the same page, which I think is a sneaky boost to his value this week. While many will look at the QB chance and stay away, you know that Walker is still a trusted option both to Whitehurst and for your roster. Walker is a top-5 TE this week.

Kendall Wright

Kendall Wright finally made an impact in Week 5, hauling in 6 of his 8 targets for 47 yards and 2 TDs, and adding 2 rushes for another 43 yards. Wright was superbly elusive in space and at times looked untouchable while dancing away from Browns defenders. I can’t think of a better defense for Wright to try for an encore against then the Jags, whose ‘Madden on Rookie’ level of defensive awareness is largely responsible for them having the 3rd-worst pass coverage grade. Wright works primarily out of the slot, and will draw coverage from CB Will Blackmon. Blackmon’s coverage ability is currently graded 4th-worst in the NFL. And he’s also already tied for the league-lead in Missed Tackles, and allowed 120 yards after the catch as a result. This sets up to be very, very bad for Will Blackmon, and very, very good for Kendall Wright. Wright makes for a strong #3 or even #2 WR this week, especially on full PPR sites.

WR Justin Hunter

Hunter finally hit a long TD last week, torching the Brows D for a 75-yard score. The opportunity for big plays will definitely be present against a Jags team that is allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards and 5th-most FPPG to WRs. He’s a high-upside GPP WR this week.

RB Bishop Sankey

It’s looking like Titans starting RB Shonn Green will be inactive with a hamstring injury this week. Could this possibly mean that Bishop Sankey finally gets his crack at being the lead back? It almost seems too good to be true (so don’t say I didn’t warn you when suddenly Dexter McCluster splits the touches). If Sankey does get the lead gig, it’s a wonderful spot to debut – the Jags grade as the 8th-worst run defense team in the NFL, and have given up 110+ rushing yards in all but one game this season. Their unique blend of inept run stopping and poor coverage from the LB position has led to the Jags allowing a whopping 27.6 FPPG to RBs, the 2nd-most in the NFL. The Titans have the 9th-best run-blocking O-line and should have no problem creating space for Sankey to attack the second level. If he gets the lion’s share of carries Sankey will be a sneaky salary relief #2 RB or FLEX this week.

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	43	23				3	43	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.2	16	18	11		Offense	20.6	25	27	21
Defense	20.6	25	27	21		Defense	23.2	16	18	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22	23	30	26		Baltimore Ravens	14	6	26	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	29	11	1	176		Jackson	47	21	2	278
Smith	49	30	3	463		Evans	27	17	1	203
Brown	7	4	0	46		Murphy	18	9	1	134
Daniels	24	19	2	183		Myers	16	13	0	107

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total of the week = limited appeal
•Target Ravens
•Avoid the Bucs offense

Baltimore Ravens

WR Steve Smith

Steve Smith FINALLY flopped for a game, pulling in 5 of 7 targets for 34 yards against the Colts. Consider it the result of shut-down coverage from Colts CB Vontae Davis. This week however he faces the mighty generous Bucs pass defense that allows the 3rd-most FPPG and 6th-most yards per game to WRs. The Tampa 2 zone should be an after-the-catch wonderland for Smith, whom HC Gary Kubiak has been scheming around the field. Smith’s tasty matchup puts him in consideration as a strong #2 WR where the price is right.

Justin Forsett: Flying Solo?

After last week it certainly seems like Justin Forsett is the definitive leader of the Ravens RB flock. He racked up another solid total yards performance with a combined 97 total yards and 1 TD on 14 touches. His role in the receiving game again boosted his value through the roof on full PPR sites, as last week he added 7 catches for 55 yards through the air. Even though Forsett isn’t getting heavy carry volume, the Ravens dedication to getting him the ball in space is a huge boost to his value on sites like DraftKings where each catch is worth 10 yards. Forsett faces a weak Bucs defense that has the NFL’s 4th-worst run defense grade, and allows the 9th-most FPPG to RBs (including a healthy 5.8 receptions per game). Forsett is a solid #2 RB this week.

WR Torrey Smith

If there was EVER a week for Torrey Smith to remind us of the days when he used to actually get targets and catch passes, this would be the week. While I’ve already mentioned the Bucs weakness to WRs as a whole (3rd-worst), they also boast one of, if not THE worst starting CB right now, Johnthan Banks. Banks has the 4th-worst CB grade in the NFL. Banks is big (6’2”) but slow, and gets beat deep. Smith is fast, and basically only runs deep. See where I’m going with this? Smith is a high-risk/maybe high-reward GPP WR this week.

TE Owen Daniels

Daniels has emerged as a reliable possession receiving option for the Ravens, pulling in 5 of his 7 targets for 70 yards in Week 5. He should be strongly considered this week based on the Tampa 2 defense he’ll be facing, which can be exploited by TEs. The Bucs are showing signs of it already, yielding the 3rd-most receptions AND yards to TEs so far. Daniels is a very good bet for a high floor based on his matchup this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Vincent Jackson

Jackson finally had his breakout game in Week 5, and was the lone offensive bright spot for the Bucs. VJax soaked up 8 of 12 targets for 144 yards. He was simply a man among boys. This week Jackson will likely be shadowed by the cornerback version of ‘a man among boys,’ Ravens CB Jimmy Smith. Smith goes 6’2”, 209, and is a big, physical, shutdown corner. It will be fascinating to see if he’s able to leverage his size and strength at all vs the 6’5”, 230 lb Jackson. I’ve been advising Grinders avoid WRs when they’re matched up with Smith, he is that good. The Ravens safeties, however, are not. If VJax can get deep, I have very little faith in any reasonable help coming over the top. I think it’ll be either boom or bust for Jackson today – as long as he has his size, his speed, and his supply, he’ll be in consideration for GPPs.

RB Doug Martin

The Bucs RB situation is one to avoid unless the matchup is extremely favorable. This one isn’t. The Ravens sport an exceptionally stout front seven, with the resurgence of veterans LB Terrell Suggs and DL Haloti Ngata and emergence of youth like NT Brandon Williams and 1st-rd LB and Human Homing Missile CJ Mosley. This group has the 6th-best team run defense grade, and allows the 6th-fewest FPPG to RBs. Look elsewhere for RBs this week.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Part of last week’s blurb in case anyone is unfamiliar: “His measurable are just _dumb for a TE: 6’6”, 4.56 40-yard dash, 37.5” in. vertical, and 33 ¾” arms. His theoretically massive catch radius should do wonders for Mike Glennon’s scattershot passes, and provides a similarly sized replacement for injured WR Mike Evans._
ASJ’s physical potential went unutilized last week, as he caught just 1 of 3 targets for only 11 yards. He dropped the other two targets. ASJ just isn’t an established weapon in the passing game, Mike Evans is returning from injury, and the Ravens give up the 4th-fewest FPPG to TEs. He is a very risky punt TE with a low floor.

Others

WR Mike Evans could return for this game – he doesn’t have a great matchup but will be completely ignored in GPPs. QB Mike Glennon and his bottom-10 pass-blocking offensive line faces the NFL’s top pass-rush… avoid.

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