NFL Grind Down: Week 7

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-21 17:07:46

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills

Minnesota Vikings						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	43	19.5				-4	43	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.3	28	32	10		Offense	19.7	26	26	28
Defense	19.7	26	26	28		Defense	17.3	28	32	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	17	1	25	18		Minnesota Vikings	7	29	13	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Patterson	32	17	0	204		Watkins	47	26	2	311
Jennings	36	20	1	268		Woods	43	21	1	234
Wright	30	18	0	213		Williams	18	8	1	142
Ellison	8	5	0	81		Chandler	28	19	0	242

Quick Grind

•Low total and sputtering offenses limits DFS appeal
•Bills Defense is a top play
•Target Bills as GPP options

There’s honestly not much to like on either side in this game – aside from some GPP possibilities, I would look elsewhere for core lineup options this week

Minnesota Vikings

RB Jerick McKinnon

In case you haven’t seen McKinnon run, here’s a description of what it looks like: “There is a scene in the 2010 film “Get Him to the Greek” where Russell Brand stabs Jonah Hill in the chest with an EpiPen (a la the scene in ‘Pulp Fiction’), sending a dose of adrenaline to Hill’s heart and causing him to surge off the ground and charge out in a frenzy (~0:45 here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNjKak2-NDc). That’s what Jerick McKinnon reminded me of in Week 4, surging his way to 18-135 on the ground (with an overturned TD to boot) vs the Falcons. He looked like he was shot out of a cannon on several of his runs.”

Jerick McKinnon’s upside bears mentioning despite a horrible matchup with a Bills team that boasts the 2nd-best run defense grade on Pro Football Focus. The Bills have had no problem shutting down opposing RBs in 2014, and allow just 13.3 FPPG, the stingiest mark in the NFL. However, McKinnon’s big play potential and increasing role in the passing game (6 catches for 42 yards last week) make him a contrarian GPP play this week.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy had a completely acceptable and predictable rookie-like struggle against the surprisingly elite Lions defense last week. The most concerning part of Bridgewater’s performance wasn’t the rookie mistakes on his interceptions, but the 8 sacks he endured. Like the Lions, the Bills also boast a fearsome pass-rush generated purely from their defensive line. Though the Bills secondary is certainly exploitable, their pass-rush could demolish any chance that Teddy has at GPP value this week. He’s a very risky play.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Same as last week — until Patterson starts to get open with his own route-running, he is just a hypothetical GPP play.

WR Jarius Wright

I’m still hopeful that the connection Wright demonstrated with Teddy Bridgewater vs the Falcons will resurface. The Vikings would be wise to utilize Wright on quick-hitters and high-percentage routes to neutralize the Bills pass-rush and allow Wright opportunities in the open field. Unfortunately the Vikings aren’t big fans of wisdom. Wright is a hunch GPP play but there are far less risky option you can turn to for salary relief this week.

RB Matt Asiata

Asiata moved to a purely backup role vs the Lions last week. The Vikes coaches have claimed they want to get him more touches this week, but Vikes beat writers suggest that’s unlikely to happen. I would avoid Asiata until he sees a drastic bump in volume.

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins

Despite Watkins’ predictably disappointing Week 6 (2 catches, 27 yards), he is poised as a top Bills option this week. Watkins went for 7-87 on 12 targets in Week 5, which he could easily replicate this week now that he’s free from Darelle Revis’ coverage. Minnesota’s defense is tough on paper: 6th fewest passing yards per game, 13th-fewest FPPG to WRs. But this ranking is misleading due to several matchups in which the opponent simply didn’t need to pass in order to beat the Vikings. Kyle Orton is passing for 300+ yards a game due to a stagnant run game, and peppered Watkins with targets in his first start. Watkins makes for an interesting GPP play

RB Fred Jackson

Though Jackson managed just 43 total yards and a TD last week, he dominated the Bills backfield in touches, and is likely to see an even larger majority of touches as CJ Spiller continues to fall out of favor in Buffalo. The added volume comes at a perfect time for FJAX, as the Vikings generous rush defense is coming to town. The Vikings allow the 4th-most FPPG and 7th-most rush yards per game to RBs. Jackson should also have game script in his favor as the Bills are modest favorites in this game. All told, FJAX makes a reasonable #2 RB this week.

RB CJ Spiller

If trades were easier/more common in the NFL I think Spiller would have been shipped out of town by now. The improperly used RB continues to irk the Bills coaches, and did himself no favors with a 6-19 performance last week; Spiller’s not a popular guy in DFS right now either, as his fumble last week meant he got owners negative points. Ouch. Until Spiller shows a willingness to run inside, or his coaches show a willingness to scheme him into space, or he’s simply traded to another team, Spiller should be avoided in DFS.

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

Miami Dolphins						Chicago Bears
Sun – 1:00 PM						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	49	23				-3	49	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.0	14	25	9		Offense	23.8	15	6	24
Defense	23.8	15	6	24		Defense	24.0	14	25	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	16	12	17	14		Miami Dolphins	13	20	15	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	44	25	4	313		Marshall	46	25	5	301
Hartline	28	16	1	161		Jeffery	46	31	2	495
Gibson	13	7	0	65		Holmes	13	7	0	56
Clay	27	17	0	146		Bennett	51	36	4	364

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Somewhat Seal of Approval: Target Almost Everyone!
•One of the highest Vegas totals and a close spread = fantasy goodness
•Target the Bears passing attack
•Lamar Miller reclaims Dolphins lead back role

Miami Dolphins

WR Mike Wallace

Wallace continues to impress in 2014 as he hauled in 5 catches for 67 yards and a TD in Week 6. This week, OC Bill Lazor will scheme Wallace into advantageous matchups with a Bears secondary that grades as the 13th-worst coverage unit on PFF. Wallace deserves consideration on a weekly basis due to his target volume and versatile usage in the offense, and is a top-15 WR option this week.

RB Lamar Miller

Lamar Miller is again the lead dog in Miami, with Knowshon Moreno now out for the year. He’ll face a Bears run D that is vastly improved over last year, grading the 13th-best in run defense on PFF and allowing the 12th-fewest FPPG to RBs. Despite the matchup, Miller comes at discount compared to the volume of touches he’s likely to receive. The Dolphins aren’t afraid to use Miller as the goal-line back either. Ultimately I like Miller as a top 15 play this week; he makes for an ideal #2 RB with his discounted price.

QB Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill had a 2nd-straight strong DFS performance, thanks largely to his 49 rushing yards. The supplemental rushing potential is completely overlooked with Tannehill but makes him a much more relevant option than he appears most weeks. This week Tannehill faces a Bears defense that allows the 17th-most FPPG and 6th-most rushing yards to QBs. In what should be a high-scoring affair, Tannehill makes for an intriguing GPP option.

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

Matt Forte was last week’s top RB play and he did not disappoint, with 17-80-2 on the ground and 10-77 through the air. Forte continues to add top-20 WR numbers to his rushing totals, which makes him basically matchup proof. His insane volume and receiving production makes him a top 3 RB option this week.

WR Brandon Marshall

NARRATIVE STREET ALERT

The squeaky wheel has officially been greased. Marshall racked up 6-113 vs the Falcons and looked HEALTHY in doing so. He’ll be all systems go against a Dolphins defense that allows the 15th-fewest FPPG to WRs but was just touched up by both Jordy Nelson (9-107-1) and Randall Cobb (5-58-1). Marshall is still discounted around the industry relative to his elite peers, and shares a similar ceiling despite the lower price.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Alshon’s strong play continued in Week 6, as he racked up 5 catches for 136 yards. This week Jeffery figures to see a lot of CB Brent Grimes; Grimes is a quietly elite corner, but has been struggling a bit recently and was completely abused by a similarly physically freaky WR in Week 6 (Jordy Nelson, 9-107-1). Alshon should have plenty of chances to stretch the field this week and is a top-10 WR option.

QB Jay Cutler

Cutler did almost everything we wanted in Week 6: he threw for 381 yards, completed over 68% of his passes, and DIDN’T THROW ANY INTERCEPTIONS. However he also only threw 1 TD. With a fully healthy receiving corps, Cutler should be able to bump that TD number up this week against the Dolphins. The Dolphins are fresh off a meltdown loss to the Packers, in which Aaron Rodgers carved them up for 298 yards and 3 TDs. With one of the highest totals of the day, Cutler will be a top 5 QB this week.

TE Martellus Bennett

Bennett’s production has dropped significantly as the Bears WRs have gotten healthier. He still managed 4 catches for 52 yards last week, and will continue to receive a high number of targets for a TE. The Dolphins allow the 14th-most FPPG to TEs despite limiting the position to the 3rd-fewest yards per game. Their weakness has been TDs, which Bennett should be able to exploit. He is a top-8 option this week.

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