NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-21 10:44:08

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders

Arizona Cardinals						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:25 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	43.5	23.25				3	43.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.2	19	19	30		Offense	15.8	31	23	32
Defense	15.8	31	23	32		Defense	23.2	19	19	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	15	26	11	20		Arizona Cardinals	26	2	31	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	34	19	1	262		Jones	35	26	3	328
Floyd	36	16	1	306		Holmes	29	15	3	269
Brown	28	15	3	156		Moore	21	9	0	69
Carlson	16	12	0	129		Ausberry	4	2	0	14

Quick Grind

•Vegas expects low scoring and tightly contested affair
•Target Andre Ellington
•Andre Holmes is the truth

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington

I like Ellington to rebound from last week’s lackluster performance this week. The Raiders are the perfect tonic for RBs, as they allow 133.6 rushing yards per game and the 7th-most FPPG to the position. I’ve highlighted their talent issues and injury issues in past weeks, and nothing has changed recently other than them improving their rush yards allowed from the ghastly 150+ it was at earlier in the season. Ellington should access the second-level often against this defense and feast once he sees daylight. He’s a high-upside RB this week.

WR Michael Floyd

Floyd is back in play as a DFS option now that Carson Palmer has returned from injury. He turned 7 targets into 4-47-1 in Palmer’s first week back. Floyd faces a completely unimposing Raiders secondary this week, and his significantly depressed price makes him an appealing play as a complementary WR in GPPs.

WR Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald proved he still had a pulse last week, racking up 6-98-1 thanks to Palmer’s steady play. Fitz should now return to being a matchup-specific play. This week Fitz faces familiar foe and former 49er (my alliteration game is strong) Carlos Rogers. Rogers has allowed more catches and TDs than Fitz has even caught this season (Rogers: 27-253-2 vs Fitz: 19-262-1). It should be an interesting duel between the two old-timers, and one I anticipate Fitz winning enough to produce a solid line this week.

QB Carson Palmer

Palmer emphatically answered the age old question ‘Is 80% of Carson Palmer still better than 100% of Logan Thomas?” last week, casually dropping 250 yards and 2 TDs on the Redskins. While Palmer regains his strength, he’ll be more of a boon to his receivers than to us as a stand-alone QB option. However, he’s an intriguing GPP play this week vs a Raiders defense that has suffered 300+ passing yard, 2+ TD assaults in 2 consecutive weeks.

WR John Brown

Brown deserves a quick mention given Palmer’s return. He managed 4-43 last week, his first decent showing in the last few weeks, and will again be a dangerous open-field and deep threat with Palmer at the helm. He’s a risk/reward GPP option.

Oakland Raiders

WR Andre Holmes

So far the top #GrindDown call of 2014 has to be this one about Andre Holmes, waaaay back in Week 4: ”My favorite Raiders play this week, and one of my favorite sneaky GPP plays for the next few weeks is WR Andre Holmes… There will be an explosive game from Holmes in the next few weeks – mark my words.”

At least a few Grinders hit me up on Twitter and in messages/comments to let me know they profited from Andre Holmes’ transcendent Week 6. Holmes will always be near and dear to my heart for winning me a PFFC Q last season when literally nobody knew who he was, so I’m happy that more Grinders cashed in on his miniscule ownership % last week. Unfortunately I think the secret is out now, so we’ll have to begin weighing both Holmes’ rising cost and rising ownership % accordingly when plugging him into our GPP rosters. The good news is that Holmes should see both consistent targets, and consistent DEEP targets which complement his skillset, which makes him a more reliable option than ever before. He also benefits from a likely matchup with the oft-burnt Antonio Cromartie. Be careful though – in Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 6, Cro allowed 11 or fewer yards and no better than a 56.3 QB rating. Of course the old Cro reappeared in Week 5 when he allowed 7 catches for 221 yards and 2 TDs. Holmes will be awfully popular this week in GPPs , and for good reason, but just note that Cromartie has shown he still has some gas left in the tank. Holmes still makes for a high-upside GPP play this week.

WR James Jones

Jones recorded a solid 5-56-1 in Week 6, and continues to be a reliable option for Derek Carr. This week Jones will likely see a lot of CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson has struggled this season and been picked on repeatedly, but should be able to corral Jones, who doesn’t possess outstanding athleticism.

RB Darren McFadden

DMC performed surprisingly well last week vs the Chargers, showing glimpses of the vintage DMC explosiveness on his way to 14-80 on the ground. The Cardinals present an imposing paper matchup for DMC this week: they allow the 2nd-fewest FPPG and just 59 rushing yards per game (3rd-fewest) to RBs. Still, I mentioned last week how I don’t see the Cardinals defensive prowess continuing in the wake of injuries to 2 of their top 5 run defenders in Week 5. Interim HC Tony Sparano made clear his desire to establish a running game, so expect a heavy early dose of DMC if the game can stay somewhat close. He’s an especially contrarian GPP RB.

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers						Denver Broncos
Sun – 8:30 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	50.5	22				-6.5	50.5	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	17	18	12		Offense	29.4	3	1	29
Defense	29.4	3	1	29		Defense	23.5	17	18	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	23	16	5	22		San Francisco 49ers	2	4	12	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	36	25	2	246		Thomas	55	31	4	491
Boldin	36	25	0	303		Welker	19	14	0	126
Johnson	19	15	2	183		Sanders	48	35	0	473
Davis	12	9	2	91		Thomas	30	24	9	277

Quick Grind

•Highest Vegas total of the week = lots of fantasy goodness
•Will Manning break the TD record?
•No Willis for SF means fire up Broncos TE Julius Thomas

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaep exploded for 343 yards and 3 TDs through the air, and added 37 yards on the ground in a complete dismantling of the Rams defense last week. And while that will have many excited at Kaep’s prospects in what projects as a high-scoring affair this week, I’m worried about Kaep and the 49ers offense as a whole. The Broncos defense is infinitely better than the Rams, and matches up exceptionally well with the 49ers skill players. The Broncos pass-rush should give the 49ers offensive line – which may be down 2 starters this week – fits all game long. I can see an argument for Kaep racking up production due to the 49ers trailing for the majority of the game, but I’m hesitant to invest in him forcing throws against an elite Broncos secondary. Kaep has as much upside as any QB in the league, but I have a bad feeling about his matchup this week.

RB Frank Gore

Gore tumbled back to Earth last week after willing his team to victory in Week 5. Gore received just 16 carries (which he turned into a paltry 38 yards) and watched backup RB Carlos Hyde earn 11 carries of his own. Gore and Hyde will be in for a stiff challenge this week, as the NFL’s 6th-best run blocking offensive line meets the 5th-best run defense unit. The X Factor here will likely be game flow, which could sap carries from the 49ers RBs if the Broncos build an early lead. However, the Broncos will be without one of their top run-defending LBs, which could open up room for the 49ers runners. Gore is a high-risk, moderate reward RB considering his matchup and likely usage.

49ers WRs

I’m lumping the 49ers WRs together because I worry about them as a collective. The Broncos boast one of the strongest CB duos in the NFL in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, and also have an emerging young talent in rookie Bradley Roby. I don’t like Michael Crabtree’s likely matchup with Aqib Talib, and I also don’t like Boldin’s matchup in 2 WR sets with CB Chris Harris. Boldin will potentially be able to exploit Bradley Roby in the slot, but other than that percentage play, I don’t recommend chasing 49ers WRs outside of GPPs.

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

Manning is just a few TDs away from the NFL record. Despite facing the top coverage defense in the NFL, despite that defense allowing just the 2nd-fewest FPPG to QBs, I wouldn’t bet against Manning setting the record this week against my beloved 49ers. What else needs to be said? Peyton has top-QB potential this week.

TE Julius Thomas

A week ago I would have advised caution with rostering Julius Thomas because he would have had to face All-World LB Patrick Willis in coverage. Unfortunately Willis was injured on MNF and is out this week… so Orange Julius could easily score multiple TDs. He remains the top TE option this week.

Broncos WRs

Although the 49ers have allowed the 12th-fewest FPPG to WRs, they will likely be horribly overmatched in this game. They will be down #1 CB Tramaine Brock, as well as likely missing slot man Jimmy Ward. The replacements for these players are either unproven or were burn victims on other teams. So whether it’s the matchup proof Demaryius Thomas, or the yet-to-breakout Wes Welker, you should have no reservations rostering Broncos WRs this week.

RB Ronnie Hillman

Hillman appears to have locked up the lead back role following his 24-100 performance vs the Jets. However, he might be the one Bronco who may not be able to overcome his difficult matchup. the 49ers allow just 67.5 rushing yards per game and have the 4th-best run defense grade on PFF. The loss of Patrick Willis will hurt, but the 49ers have been surprisingly resistant to the several injuries they’ve endured thus far. Ultimately I think the 49ers will be able to limit the Broncos run game but will have few answers for their aerial assault.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston Texans						Pittsburgh Steelers
Mon – 8:30 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	45	20.75				-3.5	45	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	21	30	8		Offense	20.7	23	14	11
Defense	20.7	23	14	11		Defense	22.0	21	30	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	3	14	7	26		Houston Texans	14	17	26	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	54	34	1	419		Brown	61	41	5	629
Hopkins	33	25	3	366		Wheaton	39	24	0	277
Posey						Moore	8	3	1	64
Graham	14	10	0	98		Miller	35	26	1	262

Quick Grind

•Modest Vegas total with plenty of sweat-worthy players
•Target both elite RBs

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

A week after dropping 157 rushing yards and 2 TDs on the Cowboys, Arian Foster beautifully navigated the Colts defense to the tune of 141 total yards and another 2 TDs. While the Steelers allow the 14th-fewest FPPG to RBs that matters 0 to Foster and the Texans: the Cowboys give up the 10th-fewest FPPG even after Foster’s recent rampage. Paper rankings are worthless when Foster is healthy. He is a top-3 play this week.

WR Andre Johnson

Andre finally had a truly strong performance last week, haluing in 7 catches for 99 yards and a TD vs the Colts. He should have little problem whipping the Steelers bottom-15 coverage unit, specifically the oft-burnt Cortez Allen and William Gay. Even at his advanced age, Johnson remains a matchup nightmare. So long as he’s healthy he’ll be a top-20 WR play.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins broke his string of strong performances last week when he was inexplicably targeted just 2 times. Expect a full bounce back to his big-play ways against the aforementioned lackluster Steelers coverage. He’s an upside GPP WR with the added bonus of giving you a big play threat to sweat on MNF.

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

There are two relevant Steelers, and you already know who they are. We’ll start with Antonio Brown. If you read the #GrindDown every week you’re probably sick of my constant gushing over how elite Antonio Brown is (he added another 7-118 to his resume last week btw). So there’s just one stat you need to know about Brown’s matchup this week. Last week, the Texans were completely torched short, medium, and DEEP by TY Hilton, to the tune of 9 catches, 223 yards, and 1 TD that should have been 2 or 3. This week Antonio Brown faces the Texans. He’s a top-2 WR play. On we go.

RB Le’Veon Bell

Le’Veon Bell racked up another 100+ total yard performance last week, but people are still disappointed because they want to see the obnoxiously dominant Bell from the first few weeks of the season. We might see that version of Bell again this week, as he takes on a Texans defense that allows 113.8 rushing yards per game and got demolished for 176 yards by Rashad Jennings in Week 3, and 192 yards by DeMarco Murray in Week 5. This defense can be completely gashed by elite runners. Bell is an elite runner. He needs to be in your lineup this week.