NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-18 22:32:13

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati Bengals						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	49	23				-3	49	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.8	9	13	5		Offense	31.5	1	2	19
Defense	31.5	1	2	19		Defense	26.8	9	13	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	6	25	3	23		Cincinnati Bengals	21	13	6	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	25	17	2	314		Wayne	54	34	1	419
Jones						Hilton	59	40	1	604
Sanu	41	28	3	354		Nicks	31	17	2	141
Gresham	20	14	0	129		Allen	27	18	4	253

Quick Grind

•Another high total/close spread game with lots of players to target
•No AJ Green for the Bengals = Upgrade Gio Bernard and Mo Sanu
•Luck and Hilton could continue to dominate

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Injury Alert: WR AJ Green Doubtful for Week 7 – Upgrade M Sanu

RB Gio Bernard

Gio finished Week 6 with 18-137-1 on the ground and another 4-20 through the air, but most of his production came on an 89-yard TD. With no AJ Green again this week, Gio should remain the engine of the offense. His matchup vs the Colts suits his strengths well, as the Colts not only allow the 8th-most FPPG to RBs, but fuel that generosity by allowing the 4th-most receiving yards to RBs. I think we’ll see Gio siphon a few more targets from Mo Sanu this week as the Bengals balance their attack. Gio is a strong #1 RB play this week that might be overlooked relative to his elite peers.

WR Mohamed Sanu

Sanu was extremely impressive last week, turning 15 targets into 11-120-1. He was an absolute beast in the short passing game, and reeled in some intermediate and deep shots last week as well. He seems capable of performing like a true #1 WR, but unfortunately his price is starting to reflect this. With a rising price tag and a tough matchup in store, it’s hard to justify rostering Sanu. But his supply and efficiency is undeniable. He is a top-20 WR this week.

RB Jeremy Hill

I mention Hill seemingly every week, and will continue to do so as long as AJ Green is out. Hill quietly racked up 13.5 DK points last week and is in a good position to do so again this week as the #2 RB and goal-line pounder.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Last week, Luck eerily threw for exactly 370 yards for the 3rd time this season – he also added 3 TDs, the 4th time he’d thrown at least 3 this season. He’s been basically the most statistically dominant QB in the NFL this season (and his price reflects it), and now faces a Bengals defense that has been torched the past 2 weeks. If you are paying for a stud QB, Luck is a top-2 option this week.

WR TY Hilton

I stood on a soap box for TY Hilton last week, claiming that ”Hilton’s supply, recent performance, and matchup all point to monster potential this week.”, and he seemed poised to rewrite the WR record books as he unleashed a vertical assault on the Texans secondary en route to 9 catches for 223 yards and a TD. If his usage continues, Hilton will soon be among the must-start elite WRs. He has GPP-winning potential given his target volume, usage, and skillset – even a matchup with a Bengals defense that allows the 7th-fewest FPPG to WRs has little bearing on Hilton’s potential this week. He’s firmly a top-10 WR option.

WR Reggie Wayne

Wayne took a backseat to Hilton in Week 6, but had racked up 20 targets and 14-186-1 the two weeks prior. He unfortunately will see the Bengals top cover man, CB Leon Hall, when he works from the slot this week. Temper expectations, but consider Wayne for your Colts stacks, and as a #3 WR on full PPR sites.

TE Dwayne Allen

Allen has been a reliable receiving and TD threat for Luck this season, and this week his skill-set meets the defense that allows a ridiculous average of 8 catches and 94.6 yards per game to TEs, worst in the NFL. The Bengals LBs are seriously liabilities in TE coverage, which Allen should be able to exploit. He’s a sneaky TE option this week.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw reeled in another TD reception last week, making his 59 total yard effort look stronger than it actually was. Eventually teams will learn to cover Bradshaw in the flat, right? Until team’s prove they get it, Bradshaw is an interesting FLEX option on full PPR sites due to his versatility as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

New Orleans Saints						Detroit Lions
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	48.5	23				-2.5	48.5	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.4	13	8	4		Offense	19.3	27	22	22
Defense	19.3	27	22	22		Defense	26.4	13	8	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	1	8	1	17		New Orleans Saints	27	24	29	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Colston	29	15	1	248		Johnson	37	22	2	348
Stills	15	10	0	141		Tate	52	38	1	495
Cooks	41	32	1	255		Ross	13	9	1	129
Graham	47	34	3	376		Pettigrew	8	5	0	40

Quick Grind

•Two high-powered offenses that are struggling with injuries
•Vegas total opened high but is plummeting…
•Golden Tate will again be trying to fill Megatron’s shoes

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

The last time we saw Drew Brees he had a mixed performance in which he managed 371 yards and 2 TDs, but also threw another 3 INTs and couldn’t take the top off a Bucs defense that has rolled over for several other teams so far. Now Brees and Co get an extremely unfavorable matchup against arguably the top defense of 2014. The Lions are coming off an 8-sack performance vs the Vikings, grade as the 7th-best team in coverage, and allow just 10.1 FPPG to QBs, the stingiest mark in the NFL. It’s essentially a nightmare matchup for Brees, who also might be without top weapon Jimmy Graham this week. Only the bold will likely risk rostering Brees this week.

TE Jimmy Graham

Graham might not play this week. At best he’ll be limited as a situational player. Keep an eye on his status – if he plays, he will still be a top-tier TE option. Even a limited Graham is better than most TEs, and his ownership % will be the lowest you’ll see it all season.

WR Brandin Cooks

Cooks continues to impress as a reliable full PPR option, racking up 9 catches for 56 yards in Week 5. He hasn’t been hitting big plays like we thought he might coming into the year, but has instead emerged as a safety valve for Brees. If Graham doesn’t play this week, expect additional targets to go Cooks way. He’s arguably the best Saints receiving option this week.

WR Marques Colston

Colston continues to produce modestly, but seems firmly behind Cooks in the receiving pecking order. The one advantage Colston has this week is on the percentage of snaps he’ll see in the slot, away from the Lions stout outside CBs. He’s worth consideration as a matchup play this week.

The Saints Full Backfield

The Saints backfield should be back to full strength this week as Mark Ingram returns from injury… which is terrible news for us. Ingram and Khiry Robinson figure to handle the majority of traditional carries and goal-line responsibilities, whereas Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet will handle passing work. It’s probably best to avoid the situation altogether.

Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford

Stafford’s struggles without Calvin Johnson continued last week, as he threw for just 185 yards and 1 TD against the Vikings. To be fair, Stafford was also without Reggie Bush, and he didn’t need to do any more to win. The question is: would he have even been able to without his playmakers? Savvy defenses will likely just focus on containing Golden Tate, at which point the Lions have… not much else to work with. This week Stafford thankfully has a forgiving matchup against the disappointing Saints secondary; the Saints sports the 2nd-worst team coverage grade, and have allowed the 6th-most FPPG to QBs. Can the friendly matchup propel a struggling Stafford to DFS relevance this week? It’s a risky play but there’s upside based on his likely low ownership %.

WR Golden Tate

With no Megatron, Tate racked up another 12 targets last week… but only converted them into 7-44?! Drops were largely the culprit, as the normally extremely sure-handed Tate let THREE balls hit the ground. Tate will get a shot at redemption this week as he figures to again be the figurehead of the Lions passing attack. The Saints entire secondary has struggled this season, as they currently allow the 3rd-most FPPG to WRs and offer exploitable matchups for Tate both outside and in the slot. Tate makes a strong bounce-back WR play who should have a lower ownership % after last week burned many.

RB Joique Bell

Despite a slow start in Week 6, the Bell did toll to the tune of 97 total yards and a TD. With Reggie Bush returning this week, Bell will resume his primary inside grinder role but will also retain valuable goal-line work. The Saints allow just over 100 rushing yards and 1 TD per game to RBs – I can see Bell churning out 70-80 and a TD ideally, depending on game flow. He’s a sneaky #2 RB assuming some will be off him this week due to the return of Bush.

RB Reggie Bush

NARRATIVE STREET ALERT

Bush returns this week vs his former team, but it’s hard to predict his likely volume in his first game back from injury. Give him the Narrative Street upgrade when building your rosters, but be wary of snap limitations.

WR Corey Fuller

A possible sneaky GPP play this week could be Corey Fuller, who should again take Calvin Johnson’s ‘place’ in the offense. Fuller was used in boring fashion last week, and made little of his chance to carve out additional play time, but he’s a physical freak who could theoretically torch a defense. He’s a low floor shot-in-the-dark GPP play.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Carolina Panthers						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	49	21				-7	49	28
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	17	9	26		Offense	26.8	8	4	23
Defense	26.8	8	4	23		Defense	23.5	17	9	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	8	22	10	4		Carolina Panthers	25	31	24	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	55	31	4	416		Nelson	68	43	5	632
Cotchery	29	20	0	262		Cobb	41	29	7	331
Avant	28	17	1	179		Adams	25	16	1	167
Olsen	51	33	5	388		Rodgers	4	2	0	52

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: PLAY EVERYONE!
•Target the Packers passing attack
•Cam has been unleashed

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton

Superman Returns. If you take one thing away from the Grind Down every week, it should be that when I write that a player ‘will of course go off now that I’ve written that he won’t’, YOU MUST PLAY THAT PERSON. Cam Newton of course exploded last week, dropping 284-2-1 through the air and rolling up an obnoxious 17-107-1 on the ground. When the dust settled, Cam was among the top scorers with 38.06 DK points, and was a few drops away from a 45+ point day considering his near-double bonus (300+ passing and 100+ rushing). So from here out, we consider Cam the way we’re used to: as a QB with GPP-winning potential every week. And the thing is, I think Cam’s upside is HIGHER now than it’s ever been, given his forced maturation as a passer through the first weeks of 2014, and the emerging reliability of Kelvin Benjamin in the red-zone. Give Cam a longer look for the next few weeks as the Panthers running game still tries to get its $%^& together – the Panthers clearly see the value in running designed QB runs with their superstar instead of limping for a few yards with injured RBs. This is especially true near the goal-line, where we saw the revival of the QB-power play.

With Green Bay sporting a banged up secondary and a history of getting embarrassed by my beloved Colin Kaepernick and other mobile QBs, Cam makes an especially strong play this week. Know that his ownership % will inevitably skyrocket this week… but if he drops 35+ again, does that really matter?

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Though he’s had better days from a statistical standpoint, I thought Week 6 was Benjamin’s most impressive NFL performance so far. He completely shrugged off his abysmal Week 5, and hauled in several traffic catches while absorbing (attempts at) big hits on nearly every one. The Newton-Benjamin connection is going to be a printing press in DFS for years to come.

Benjamin is nursing a concussion this week, but the team has continually expressed optimism that he’ll be able to go on Sunday. The injury should hopefully keep people off Benjamin a bit, as should the matchup on Paper, with a Packers team that has the 5th-best coverage grade on PFF. The matchup is much more inviting than it seems, though, as the Packers will be without their top CB and 39 million dollar man Sam Shields. Shields had been emerging as a young shutdown corner, so his absence is a sneaky boost to Benjamin’s prospects this week. Couple that with the fact that #2 CB Tramon Williams is also hobbled with an injury, and Benjamin may be matched up with sub-package defenders that have been thrust into an unfamiliar starting role. Play Benjamin without hesitation if he’s healthy on Sunday.

TE Greg Olsen

Behold! The growing chart of Greg Olsen’s especially consistent performances! Olsen’s chart lives to see another #GrindDown this week following his 6-62-1 performance vs the Bengals. I cannot overstate Olsen’s reliability as Cam’s safety blanket and zone destroyer. The Packers have been tough on TEs (4th-fewest FPPG allowed), but Olsen’s role ensures the target volume we’re looking for in a top TE. He’s a top-3 option this week, that is perpetually underowned relative to his top-tier peers.

Insert injury joke here: The Story of the 2014 Carolina Panthers RBs

Get excited Grinders, because it looks like the Panthers will have a legit RB to start this week! Daily Show host and regular MASH extra Jonathan Stewart is slated to start Week 7, which means the Panthers non-QB running game might finally get on track this week. By now you’re probably used to me pointing out that the Packers are a top team to target with opposing RBs. They still suck at run defense (4th-worst PFF run D grade, 8th-most rushing yards allowed per game), so fire up Stewart at his discounted price as a salary relief RB in GPPs.

WR Jerricho Cotchery

I don’t feel particularly good about mentioning Cotchery, but bear with me. He has a consistent role in the offense as the Panthers 3rd receiving option, and turned 10 targets into 4-58 and a dropped TD (sorry Smizzle) last week. In a game that should feature lots of scoring, lots of Panthers passing, and a banged up Packers secondary, Cotchery could make for an interesting GPP flier on full PPR sites.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers continued his dominant play last week against the Dolphins, with a 264 yard, 3 TD barrage; he added 34 rushing yards for good measure. All this, despite being hit 7 times and sacked 4 times by the ferocious Dolphins pass-rush. Like the Dolphins, the Panthers generate their pressure via their front four, though on a much smaller scale. They’re still able to collapse the pocket with the interior rush of DT Kawann Short (2nd-best pass-rush grade among all DTs), and bring edge pressure with DE Charles Johnson, but are sorely missing 2013’s 2nd-highest graded DE, Greg Hardy. Without Hardy the Panthers rush has been inconsistent at times, which has hung their secondary out to dry repeatedly. They’ve steadily tumbled down the rankings of various metrics and currently hold the 5th-worst team coverage grade on PFF. QBs of all skill levels and hair colors have exploited the Panthers recently:

Unlike the group above, Rodgers is an elite QB, arguably the most complete QB in the game right now. He should have little problem exploiting the Panthers secondary so long as he’s kept upright. Rodgers is the top QB play this week.

WR Jordy Nelson

Nelson’s reign of terror on opposing CBs continued last week as the Packers were content to let him run circles around Dolphins CB Brent Grimes to the tune of 9-107-1. Nelson is matchup proof so long as Rodgers is healthy, and should have no trouble against Panthers CB Antoine Cason this week. Cason has already given up 36 catches for 382 yards and 4 TDs – just one fewer TD than Nelson himself has caught. Fire up Jordy as an elite WR play this week.

WR Randall Cobb

Cobb scored AGAIN last week, and now has 7 TDs on the season. The TDs are supplementing modest yardage totals (averaging 55.2 yards per game), but Cobb’s constant red-zone success is icing on the cake in matchups where Rodgers decides Cobb has the biggest advantage (i.e. vs the Bears where Cobb went 7-113-2). There’s a good chance that could be the case this week, as the Panthers have been using safety Charles Godfrey in slot coverage… which is working out about as well as you might expect. Given the matchup, Cobb oozes upside this week.

WR Davante Adams

Last week I mentioned how Rodgers commented on the separation Adams was getting on film, and the superstar QB followed through on his comments by targeting the rook often in Week 6. Adams hauled in 6 of his 8 Rodgers targets for 77 yards, and honestly should have received several more targets as he seemed to be getting open at will. Adams is a popular sleeper WR this week for all the right reasons – don’t forget about him if you’re looking for a cheap WR to complement your Packers stacks.

RB Eddie Lacy

I continue to be a Lacy apologist – he’s broken the 6th-most tackles (20, per PFF) while rushing this season – but I can’t deny the lack of carry supply he’s getting this year compared to last. He’s basically become Alfred Morris with less supply. Lacy has a good shot at redemption this week against a Panthers defense that allows the 2nd-most FPPG and 3rd-most rushing yards per game to RBs. The matchup is among the most favorable in the NFL so far, but Lacy’s supply makes him a risky RB play this week – he’s ideally utilized as a #2 RB.

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