NFL Grind Down: Week 9

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-05 01:54:29

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		12	43	15.5				-12	43	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	14.8	32	30	25		Offense	23.0	18	24	7
Defense	23.0	18	24	7		Defense	14.8	32	30	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	14	24	2	31		Jacksonville Jaguars	19	22	18	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Shorts						Green	25	17	2	314
Lee	21	12	0	128		Sanu	59	36	3	533
Robinson	63	39	2	453		Tate	19	13	1	149
Harbor	26	22	1	244		Gresham	36	28	0	211

Quick Grind

•Bengals are huge favorites this week: target both their playmakers and their defense
•AJ Green returns just in time for a tasty matchup
•Bengals RB Jeremy Hill is a strong value play with Gio Bernard Out

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Injury Alert: RB Gio Bernard is OUT this week – Upgrade RB Jeremy Hill

WR AJ Green

It appears that stud WR AJ Green will return from injury this week, and be without limitation. Green has the stars slowly aligning for him in this one, as the already cake matchup with the Jaguars secondary has become even more favorable in the wake of injuries to starting outside and slot corners Alan Ball and Will Blackmon. Their replacements should be even more exploitable. Expect Green to step right in as the Bengals #1 receiving option and be peppered with targets by Andy Dalton. He is an elite WR play this week.

RB Jeremy Hill

With Gio Bernard announced out for this week, Jeremy Hill will slide into the lead RB role. He instantly becomes an excellent salary relief RB, as he will inherit the majority of the high volume of the Bengals run-heavy scheme. Of course everyone in history will be rostering Hill this week, so you’ll have to decide if you MUST have him in order to win this week. A glance at the opponent might suggest yes, but the Jags have actually been increasingly stout vs the run of late (Anybody remember the first few weeks of the season when I said this wasn’t the same pushover Jags run defense from 2013?). Don’t get me wrong, the Jags aren’t suddenly a top run defense unit – they still allow the 11th-most FPPG to RBs – but they’re finding their groove and shutting down beatable running games. Hill will still get plenty of chances to bash the Jags door in, both on the ground and through the air, having established his ability in the passing game (3 games of 3+ catches); Hill will also be the de facto goal-line back. Altogether Hill shapes up as an excellent option in both cash games and GPPs, allowing additional roster flexibility with the savings.

WR Mohamed Sanu

Let’s give Sanu a round of applause for emerging as a legit #1 WR in the absence of AJ Green – he has been a beast, and racked up another 152 yards on 7 touches against a tough Ravens secondary last week. Unfortunately the Sanu show likely comes to an end this week with the return of AJ Green. I do think that Sanu has earned additional targets even with Green back, and of course benefits from the matchup with the Jags, who will be without both their normal RCB and slot cover man this week. Sanu could feast on their replacements, and makes a contrarian GPP pivot as most will be taking AJ Green this week.

QB Andy Dalton

I hate even suggesting that it might be an Andy Dalton week… but it might be. With his favorite toy back in the lineup and Sanu having emerged as a legitimate threat in his own right, Dalton has a stable of capable weapons to attack the depleted Jags defense with. He’s an intriguing play in GPPs as he has a high-ceiling matchup and also offers some salary relief.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Denard Robinson

Much to my surprise, Denard Robinson somewhat ripped up the Dolphins last week. I say somewhat because his 18-108 line and 6.0 YPC looks exceptional, but was pretty skewed by a massive 41 gadget run. Robinson’s production looks a little different if we break it down:

I point out the splits here solely so you guys don’t think Shoelace is the next CJ Spiller (although I do have a good gut feeling about him) based on his box score. However, averaging 4 YPC against a stout run defense like the Dolphins is still impressive considering the completely horrid run-blocking the Jags have gotten for most of the season. I do like Robinson as an option for as long as he’s getting the majority of the carries – it looks as though he has fully evolved from a gadget-only back into a legit inside-out threat. The Jags will need to lean heavily on Shoelace if they’re going to have any chance in this game, and the matchup actually sets up very nicely for him. The Bengals have allowed at least 150 yards and 2 TDs to RBs the past 2 weeks. They’re also allowing the 9th-most FPPG to RBs this season. And to top it off, the Bengals will be without stud LB and tackling-machine Vontaze Burfict, as well as his LB partner Rey Maualuga. Robinson is a sneaky punt RB this week, with upside via the matchup but risk via the likely negative game script.

WR Allen Robinson

Robinson has been the one consistent light in the Jags receiving corps, hauling in 5-82-1 on a team-high 10 targets last week. He’s been a bit of a full-PPR treasure that most non-Grinders don’t know about, but the word is slowly getting out. Just as last week, Robinson will have to overcome a tough matchup, this week vs a Bengals secondary that grades out as the 4th-best team in coverage on PFF. He’ll primarily see Adam Jones in coverage, which believe it or not has been a very tough matchup for WRs this year. The matchup makes Robinson a risk, but his consistent high target volume and high-percentage routes make him a sneaky floor option on full-PPR sites.

WR Cecil Shorts

Shorts followed up his dud in Week 7 with a 3-41 line last week. His inconsistency in the box score runs in parallel to QB Blake Bortles’ accuracy struggles. This week Shorts draws a tough matchup against CB Terrance Newman, and is an unnecessary risk this week.

TE Clay Harbor

Harbor is your ‘Play TEs vs the Bengals’ play of the week. After limiting Revolutionary War hero Crocket Gillmore to 23 yards last week, the Bengals have TUMBLED to being just the 2nd-worst team vs TEs. They still allow over 7 catches and 90 yards per game. Give Harbor a look as a punt TE this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 1:00 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	44	19				-6	44	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.0	27	28	30		Offense	23.3	16	22	7
Defense	23.3	16	22	7		Defense	19.0	27	28	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	6	23	20	15		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28	26	31	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	65	26	2	357		Austin	36	23	2	285
Evans	42	25	2	336		Hawkins	61	36	1	470
Murphy	29	18	2	217		Benjamin	19	9	3	148
Myers	20	16	0	139		Cameron	31	13	1	250

Quick Grind

•Two uninspiring offenses face two exploitable defenses
•Both ground games have a favorable matchup

Cleveland Browns

Key Injury Alert: CLE TE Jordan Cameron has been ruled out for Week 9

WR Andrew Hawkins

Baby Hawk gets zero love or national spotlight for his efforts, but he has quietly returned to his strong form from earlier in the season. Hawkins zipped to 7-88-1 last week vs the Raiders, and was basically the only thing that went right for the Browns on offense. He’ll face recent free-agent Isaiah Frey, whom he should terrorize. Hawkins is back to his ‘strong full-PPR play as your #3 WR or FLEX’ status.

RB Ben Tate

It’s difficult to fully capture the degree of my disappointment with Ben Tate, after Tate turned his matchup with the NFL’s (then) worst run defense into a whopping 26 rushing yards on 15 carries. Basically this is a lesson in the value of an elite center like Alex Mack, who apparently was the only thing keeping the Browns run game from reaching chicken-with-its-head-cut-off status. The Browns were legit beat up in the run game, vs THE WORST RUN DEFENSE IN THE NFL. Ridiculous. It would be nice to swear off Tate now, after 2 consecutive inexcusable flops, but of course he gets another cake matchup with a Bucs squad surrendering the 7th-most FPPG to RBs. Blood will be spilled in this matchup… but unfortunately at this point the Browns are just as likely to take the beating. Treat Tate with heaps of caution this week – though note the matchup, and also note that now even the hardiest of Tate supporters might be avoiding him this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Vincent Jackson

As usual, QB Mike Glennon fired passes in Vincent Jackson’s direction last week, but there were a lot fewer of them than usual as Glennon appears to have been reigned in from his old gunslinging ways. He only threw 28 passes, many of which were obviously low-risk by design – amazing what NOT getting blown out can do to a team’s plan and a QB’s stats, isn’t it? I mention all this because we might see a similar gameplan this week, especially if the Brown’s offense continues to struggle. Jackson does have one of the tastiest matchups you’ll find this week against CB Buster Skrine, but questions about the quality and quantity of throws in Jackson’s direction should give you a little pause. He’s still a high-upside GPP play, and should be a strong option if the Browns get out to a sizeable lead and the Bucs go back to swing-for-the-fences mode with Mike Glennon.

WR Mike Evans

Ok, I’m going to try something new here: every week I’m going to try to feature a write-up done by one of our excellent bloggers. There’s a lot of great analysis being done in the blogs section of RG, so I want to shine a little light on it each week. Sometimes I’ll feature a write-up because I think it’s particularly sharp analysis; other times just because it has a certain style or flair.

Our first feature comes from RG user sgaffney’s blog entitled “Week 8 round up: Jordy Nelson stole my $1,000,000.” Check the whole thing out here

Mike Evans $4,700

Sometimes you pick players because of stats, sometimes it’s because in the game you watched that player just looked awesome, sometimes it’s a good matchup and other times you pick players because they looked unbelievably athletic jumping over the hood of a car in a TMZ video of a brawl outside a nightclub. That is why I’m picking Evans. Also he’s one of the few Bucs players that haven’t been involved in trade rumors lately so, ya know, that’s something.

A humorous take by sgaffney, and one that shows there are other factors to consider when picking players. The likely matchup with CB Joe Haden is worrisome… but can Haden jump over the hood of a car during a brawl? Evans is a contrarian GPP WR play this week.

RB Bobby Rainey

Have you noticed that Rainey’s acronym backwards is ‘RB’? Clearly it’s a sign.

Rainey will likely be stepping into a starting role this week with Doug Martin Doubtful to play. That bump in touches makes Rainey a strong value option vs a Browns run defense allowing the 9th-most FPPG to RBs this season.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Last week I gave ASJ about 100 more words than he has deserved with his play thus far, and he kind of rewarded us with a 3-26-1 line. More of the same could be in order this week, as ASJ faces a Browns defense that has done a good job limiting scores from the TE position, but has also surrendered the 7th-most receptions per game.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2