NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-02 16:51:26

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 8:30 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	48	24				0	48	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.1	7	14	9		Offense	25.6	9	3	18
Defense	25.6	9	3	18		Defense	27.1	7	14	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	10	14	16	19		Baltimore Ravens	13	2	27	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	41	18	4	308		Brown	87	60	7	852
Smith	69	41	4	675		Wheaton	46	29	1	333
Brown	8	5	0	48		Moore	13	7	2	109
Daniels	36	27	3	275		Miller	44	34	2	387

Quick Grind

•Classic Rivalry is seemingly always close at the end
•Vegas projecting a healthy amount of scoring, suggesting a spread-em-out instead of grind-it-out affair

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Forsett has an interesting matchup this week against the Steelers, who are basically average in DVP to RBs, but were torn for 115 yards and a TD by Arian Foster in Week 7, and gave up 72 total yards to Forsett on just 12 touches back in Week 2. In between, the Steelers have contained the Panthers, Bucs, and Jags anemic run games (snore), which makes their DVP appear stronger than it truly is. The mauling Ravens offensive line should clear plenty of space for Forsett, making him a sneakier play than the matchup indicates on the surface. Fire him up as a #2 RB as usual.

WR Steve Smith

I have to imagine Gary Kubiak has Steelers CB Cortez Allen’s name highlighted on a whiteboard somewhere, and has been scheming up ways to pick him apart (it shouldn’t take much scheming). In theory that should be the job of Steve Smith, who Kubiak shifts constantly as his matchup weapon. Should Smith primarily see Allen in coverage, the feisty old man will have a sneaky high ceiling compared to what the overall WR DVP would indicate. Smith is a top-15 option this week.

WR Torrey Smith

I’ve been calling for the Torrey Smith dud for a while and was finally rewarded last week, as Smith was held catchless. He is an awfully risky GPP option on a weekly basis, and it’s actually painful to list his name on the Plays Chart in the same category as the emerging and actually utilized Martavis Bryant.

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

I wasn’t looking forward to the huge dilemma this week with Antonio facing young shutdown corner Jimmy Smith… but with Smith out due to injury now we can roster Brown without trepidation! The only question is: which game log is Brown most likely to replicate this week? Is it Week 6’s casual 7 catches for 118 yards, or maybe something massive like last week’s completely obnoxious 10 catch, 133 yard, 2 TD performance? The point is that all we’ve been getting from Brown all season is consistent elite production. If you can afford Brown, roster him.

RB Le’Veon Bell

There goes Le’Veon Bell again, racking up 148 total yards and 6 catches on 7 targets. Just another day at the office. I’m here to warn everyone that there’s a chance that Bell’s production might take a hit this week against the Ravens, who own the 4th-best run defense grade, and allow the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs. They have a front-seven hell-bent on run destruction. You can avoid potential hyperventilation in the case of an average Bell performance by simply pivoting to another elite RB with a friendlier matchup.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

A law was recently passed that states that if a QB throws for over 500 yards and 6 TDs in one game, he must be mentioned in the following week’s #GrindDown. So here’s Big Ben, fresh off a career day, with what had projected to be a tough matchup with the Ravens on deck for him. But now, with the Ravens down top DB Jimmy Smith, this becomes a whole new ballgame. Ben will have relatively unimpeded access to top target Antonio Brown, which only resulted in 10-133-2 in last week’s stamp in the history books. With Martavis Bryant stretching the field on one side and Brown causing mass chaos on the other, I can envision a scenario in which Ben has a strong performance. But note that his ownership will certainly be inflated after last week.

WR Martavis Bryant

Who has two thumbs and played Martavis Bryant when he exploded for 5-83-2 at min price last week? The answer should be ‘all of you’ if you read last week’s #GrindDown:

And Bryant’s write up:
”Ok, so there’s a possibility that Bryant could emerge as a 3rd interesting Steeler option if he continues to be used like he was last week. Bryant basically was the big-play/vertical receiver in his first career start last week, and he pulled in a 35-yard touchdown in the process (and possibly could have had another). Bryant’s deep shot usage makes him an interesting upside punt WR in GPPs”

Bryant is back in the GPP Plays section this week, and he may do nothing, but by now you understand his ever-present upside as a field-stretching, size/speed freak in this offense. The take-home point here is that taking chances on players that profile like Bryant, Donte Moncrief, and John Brown can pay massive dividends. All 3 were mentioned specifically in the #GrindDown last week and I hope at least some folks were able to benefit.

Going forward I’ll try to mark my favorite GPP plays with symbols (maybe an orange?), or come up with other terms to use so it’s easier for you guys to identify the most likely high-impact plays, and sort them from players who have a poor matchup or less chance of success. If anybody has any ideas or feedback about this, drop it in the comments or shoot me a message.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants

Indianapolis Colts						New York Giants
Mon – 8:30 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	50.5	26.75				3	50.5	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.3	2	2	13		Offense	22.0	22	13	14
Defense	22.0	22	13	14		Defense	31.3	2	2	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	11	31	9	22		Indianapolis Colts	21	17	7	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wayne	62	38	1	434		Randle	58	34	2	321
Hilton	78	53	2	866		Beckham
Nicks	38	18	2	168		Parker	18	13	0	177
Allen	35	22	6	326		Donnell	41	33	4	332

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total and tight spread suggests an Old Fashioned Fantasy Goodness Shootout
•Both teams’ top cover men are banged up
•The Colts passing attack should dominate for the 17th straight week.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

A little disappointed he only threw for 344 yards in Week 7, Andrew Luck figured he better shoot for 400 last week, and that’s where he finished, adding 3 TDs, 2 INTs, and 26 yards on the ground for good measure. Luck’s volume and passing tendencies are just obnoxious, which we love in DFS. I don’t think the Giants have much chance of slowing Luck down this week, and neither does Vegas, setting the Colts as 3 point favorites in a game which has a robust total of 50.5 points. It seems that not only will Luck have success throwing vs the Giants, but his shoddy defense will force him to keep throwing. At this point if you look the word ‘volume’ up in the dictionary, there’s a picture of Andrew Luck (preferably the one where he’s a Revolutionary War general).. Luck should see tons more again this week, and is a top-2 QB option.

WR TY Hilton

TY Hilton dominates more with each passing week, and last week was no exception as he burnt through the Steelers defense to the tune of 6 catches for 155 yards and a TD. This week he faces a stronger Giants secondary, but their top cover man Dominique Rodgers Cromartie has been limited in practice and is questionable this week. DRC is the only one with any hope of keeping pace with TY. Without DRC, the Giants defense will be like a bucket brigade against a forest fire. Expect to see multiple cuts to TY hauling in catches downfield this week – he’s a top-5 WR option.

WR Donte Moncrief

Another of the successful min-priced GPP WRs touted in last week’s #GrindDown, Moncrief paid off huge, ripping the Steelers for 7 catches, 113 yards, and a TD on a team-high 12 targets. I’m hopeful the Colts will realize what they have in Moncrief and just send Hakeem Nicks into space or something. With the return of Reggie Wayne, it will be interesting to see what Moncrief’s role evolves into going forward. But if Moncrief can secure the #3 WR job after Nicks involuntarily becomes an astronaut, there will certainly be more explosive games on the horizon.

TE Dwayne Allen

‘Oh hey, Dwayne Allen got another TD’ is something I say literally every week. If you like TEs that get TDs, then you must really like Dwayne Allen. Allen didn’t get much outside the TD last week, but that isn’t usually the case, as he can usually tack on a healthy chunk play or two per game as well. He’s a top non-elite TE option.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw

At long last, a team stopped Bradhshaw from scoring a receiving TD! He punched one in on the ground instead, but still, this has to be considered a win for defensive coordinators everywhere. Bradshaw continues to be a sneaky-strong DK play because of his versatility. Despite managing just 80 total yards, the TD and his 7 catches helped Bradshaw crack the 20 pt plateau on DK for the second straight week. Back-and-forth scoring is the best for Bradshaw’s do-it-all usage, and he gets another such game this week in the 50.5 pt total, 3 pt spread battle with the New York Giants. Given the matchup vs the Giants, who allow both the the 2nd most FPPG and 2nd-most receiving yards to RBs – Bradshaw should again be a strong RB play.

NY Giants

WR Rueben Randle

I will be including this until it comes to fruition: Randle’s time is coming. He’s seeing consistent targets. He’s seeing consistent targets in the red-zone. He’s clearly having his name called in the huddle. And the loss of Victor Cruz means a new primary receiver must emerge for the Giants.

I thought the prophecy foretold the emergence of Rueben Randle this week, after Colts shutdown CB Vontae Davis was injured last week. Unfortunately Davis is on track to play this week, which severely limits Randle’s upside if the Giants WR works exclusively on the outside. Davis has emerged as one of the best corners in the league this season, evidenced by his 3rd-ranked coverage grade and paltry 37.8 QB Rating allowed — he could completely shut down Randle if he can play without limitation. Randle’s consistent red-zone targets make him an enticing GPP play, but I would avoid Randle altogether if Davis takes the field this week.

TE LARRY ‘LEGEND’ DONNELL

The Legend returned just when we stopped believing in him, hauling in all 7 of his targets for 90 yards vs the Cowboys in Week 7. Of course, he also fumbled twice. Even Legends aren’t perfect. This week Larry has a favorable matchup against the Colts, who allow the 6th-most FPPG to TEs. His price is very manageable again on some sites, which gives him a bit of an edge over similar TE options. He’s returned to the back end of the top-10 TE fold.

WR Odell Beckham JR

ODB’s skillset has translated to the NFL level immediately so far, and he will continue to be a key cog in this offense going forward. While Rueben Randle is getting locked down by Vontae Davis, ODB should be zipping around and past CB Greg Toler. Toler sports the 6th-worst coverage grade of qualifiying CBs, has allowed the 10th-most yards, and has already been charted with 7 missed tackles (t-7th most). Toler’s coverage deficiencies combined with ODB’s separation skills and athleticism make ODB a high-ceiling GPP play this week.

RB Andre Williams

With Rashad Jennings still on the mend, Andre Williams again gets the call as the Giants lead RB. And this time, he just might do something with it (maybe?). The matchup certainly suggests he will, as the Colts are allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to RBs, and have been absolutely stomped on the last few weeks. Arian Foster wove through the Colts for 141 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6, and Le’Veon Bell is fresh of RINGING (see what I did there) them for 148 yards himself. Andre Williams is neither Foster nor Bell, but the point is that the Colts have been consistently weak vs the run, and have been getting worse and worse as injuries mount. Williams is a solid salary relief RB this week.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.
Good luck this week!