NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-02 11:25:27

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 1:00 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	48	22.5				-4	48	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.4	15	11	27		Offense	26.6	8	10	2
Defense	26.6	8	10	2		Defense	23.4	15	11	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	12	8	3	30		Arizona Cardinals	23	1	32	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	49	30	2	443		Bryant	76	48	5	620
Floyd	43	19	2	353		Williams	39	25	6	407
Brown	43	22	4	316		Beasley	18	14	0	120
Carlson	26	16	0	165		Witten	43	28	2	336

Quick Grind

•Somewhat high Vegas total and playmakers on both teams = Fantasy Goodness
•DeMarco Murray looks to continue his ‘Destroy Top Run Defenses’ campaign
•Michael Floyd told me to tell you that he’s very, very sorry, and he knows how he can make it up to you

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

The stock line: DeMarco Murray is the best running back in the NFL right now. He just eviscerated [insert defense here] the Redskins defense for 221 total yards. He is matchup proof. If you can afford him you should play him. On we go.

WR Dez Bryant

One of Week 8’s ‘What Could Have Been’ candidates, Dez managed just 3-30-1 against the yuck Redskins secondary. He narrowly missed an additional TD twice, and that was the difference for lotsssss of money in DFS last week. The question this week with Dez is how to change our evaluation of him considering the likely change at QB. I look at it basically like the first few weeks of the season: Romo was still hobbled by injury, but Dez never had below 6 targets, took advantage of the single-coverage due to stacked boxes vs Murray, and was always the featured target in the end-zone. That’s a long way of saying that yes, there will be a drop off from a QB talent standpoint, but Dez will still have a lot working in his favor in terms of game factors. Be careful using him in cash games, but fire him up as a likely underowned WR in GPPs.

WR Terrance Williams

If there’s a Cowboys receiver we might want to exercise caution on this week it’s Terrance Williams. As the big-play aficionado and clear second-fiddle in the passing game, it’s within reason that Williams might not see as many looks from Brandon Weeden, especially risky shots downfield. The uncertainty makes Williams more of a contrarian GPP option only, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him get behind this porous secondary, just when we think the QB change will mean his doom.

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington

Key Defensive Injury: DAL LB Justin Durant

I worried about Ellington’s YPC dipping vs a sneaky stout Eagles run defense in last week’s #GrindDown, and indeed Ellington was held to just over 3 YPC. This week we should see that figure bump back UP against a Cowboys defense that looks tough in DVP rankings (8th-fewest FPPG allowed) but struggles with their per-play efficiency and has a strongly negative run defense grade on PFF (6th-worst), which suggests that the Cowboys clock-killing OFFENSE is mostly responsible for the misleading DVP numbers. Also consider the featured defensive injury for the Cowboys: LB Justin Durant. Durant leads the Cowboys in run stops and was also effective in coverage — and the Cowboys will be replacing him with a 4th-round rookie. Ellington should have more room to run as a result, and is a top-10 RB option this week. As always, give him a bump up on full-PPR sites.

WR Michael Floyd

I wouldn’t be surprised if we heard Floyd had suddenly gone into witness protection prior to this week’s game – he is about the least popular player in the NFL for DFS-ers this week. Floyd of course went AWOL on the box score last week, unable to pull in any of his 4 targets. Though the bitter pit in your stomach — caused by the death of hopes and dreams thanks to Floyd’s ‘performance’ — still remains, there is a bright side, in that Floyd nearly hauled in a TD on one of though 4 targets, and continues to be featured down the field. Someday, those targets will turn to catches, and we’ll all learn how to smile again. Until then we should consider Floyd on a matchup-by-matchup basis and acknowledge that he’s running mainly deep stuff that doesn’t connect as often. This week offers a glimmer of redemption for Floyd, as he can and should roast the Cowboys outside CBs, who were just eaten up on deep routes by DeSean Jackson last week. Don’t give Floyd the key to your heart again just yet, but consider him as a tragically cheap GPP play on most sites.

WR Larry Fitzgerald

Fitz had the worst individual coverage matchup last week, so of course he went off for 7-160-1 whilst Mike Floyd managed nothing in his own favorable matchupp. Fitz AGAIN appears to have the worst coverage matchup this week against the Cowboys top cover man Orlando Scandrick. Since returning from suspension, Scandrick has allowed more than 44 receiving yards just once in six games. I wouldn’t chase last week’s points in general with Fitz, especially considering this matchup. So naturally Fitz will now go off again.

QB Carson Palmer

Even without contributions from Michael Floyd, Carson Palmer led a 329 yard, 2 TD aerial assault against the Eagles last week. Yes, it was fueled by big plays, but this offense is built for them, and Palmer nearly had another long TD to Floyd. The Cowboys have been tough on QBs, and grade out well in coverage, but Palmer will overcome these factors by exploiting matchups and slinging big plays, same as it’s ever been under Bruce Arians. Palmer is a solid, but not elite QB option this week.

WR John Brown

The little electrifier had his first true impact game of the season last week as he dropped 5-119-1 on the Eagles. As the ‘TY Hilton’ in the Arians offense, Brown will be sent vertical often, where he can use his unreal jets to go all Human Torch on the secondary. All it takes is one play with Brown, and his consistent opportunities to make that play are the main reason Brown is a weekly GPP play.

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans

Philadelphia Eagles						Houston Texans
Sun – 1:00 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	48	25.25				2.5	48	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	29.0	4	12	19		Offense	23.1	17	29	6
Defense	23.1	17	29	6		Defense	29.0	4	12	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	16	18	28	8		Philadelphia Eagles	30	15	29	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	76	39	6	632		Johnson	75	46	1	551
Cooper	46	29	1	305		Hopkins	54	36	3	569
Matthews	48	29	2	273		Posey
Celek	23	12	0	83		Graham	18	12	0	122

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total, a tight spread, and playmakers on both sides = LOTS of Fantasy Goodness
•Both teams have viable targets in the running and passing game

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

The usual: Foster is simply a beautiful RB to watch when he’s healthy, weaving through defenses with balanced power and deceptive burst. His skillset and mountainous carry volume basically make the Zen RB matchup proof in DFS.

Texans WRs – Two Terrors on the Outside, vs Two Terribles on the Outside

The Texans WR duo of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins pop out as matchup plays again this week, this time running up against the Eagles CB duo who rank in the bottom-20 of CBs in terms of coverage grades, Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher. Both CBs have given up their share of big plays, and will be attacked relentlessly this week both because they suck, and because… the Texans have nobody else to throw to.

Andre Johnson profiles as the safer cash game option:

• Never had less than 7 targets in a game
• Had less than 5 receptions and 58 yards only once
• Matchup obviously in his favor

DeAndre Hopkins has been more apt for the big plays, with either a TD at least 95 yards in all but two games. He will need to a hit a few of his trademark chunk plays for the Texans to keep pace this week.

Philadelphia Eagles

LeSean McCoy

Though the box score only shows 83 rushing yards and 97 total yards for McCoy last week – he looked back. And he did so against a top-tier run defense (although to be fair I did suggest the Cardinals would begin to leak soon). The story gets even brighter as the impending return of elite run-blockers looms. McCoy will get 2013’s 3rd best run-blocking C Jason Kelce back this week, which should offset the potential loss of RG Todd Herremans. Herremans will likely play, but will be doing so with a torn bicep, which sounds like a completely insane thing to do. McCoy and his MASH-regular offensive line will face a Texans defense that has managed to bottle up poor runners, but has been thrashed by elite RBs: DeMarco Murray dropped 192 yards on them in Week 5, and Le’Veon Bell added another 145 yards in Week 7. McCoy looked to be back on their level last week… he’s a high ceiling RB whose monster game is coming.

WR Jeremy Maclin

The elite status I suggested for Maclin last week came to further fruition vs the Cardinals, as Maclin repeatedly did very good WR things en route to 12 catches, 187 yards, and 2 TDs. The question for Maclin this week is whether the Texans will use CB Jonathan Joseph in shadow coverage on him. While it isn’t a favorable matchup, Maclin’s talent, versatility, and voluminous role in the offense make him a compelling play regardless of the coverage.

QB Nick Foles

Foles let loose a 62 pass barrage against the Cardinals last week, and we came out satisfied as the good (411 yards, 2 TD) outweighed the bad (2 INT). 62 passes folks. While Foles’ QB play hasn’t always been great this season, his play count and passing volume has. Vegas has the Eagles as slight favorites with a relatively high game total (48 points), so Foles should see his usual fare against an average Texans coverage unit. Foles is a back-end top-10 option, and will likely be overlooked in favor of QBs with shinier matchups this week

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz had 5 catches for 48 yards on 8 targets last week, including some key chain-movers on third down, but again saw limited snaps. It wasn’t nearly the performance many hoped he’d manage against the Cardinals inept TE coverage that he trounced last season. Ertz is a volatile option and teases us with break-out potential that is constantly bottled up by his usage. Houston has been tough against TEs, making Ertz more of a GPP flier in the hopes of a TD.

Misfit Toys

WR Jordan Matthews had an encouraging 11 targets last week but turned them into just 6 catches for 47 yards. He also nearly caught the game-winner last week, and could emerge as the top option opposite Maclin with a strong performance here. RB Darren Sproles is probable this week and will likely be zero-owned coming off injury. Your weekly Riley Cooper update: still just a guy that likes country music.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

New York Jets						Kansas City Chiefs
Sun – 1:00 PM						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	41.5	16				-9.5	41.5	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.0	28	31	5		Offense	25.1	11	27	1
Defense	25.1	11	27	1		Defense	18.0	28	31	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	5	4	6	17		New York Jets	32	7	25	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	52	31	3	363		Bowe	36	25	0	343
Harvin	35	25	0	155		Jenkins	8	7	0	56
Kerley	50	24	1	226		Hammond	6	2	0	31
Cumberland	29	15	1	154		Kelce	37	28	3	352

Quick Grind

•Low total with KC as big favorites
•Be careful targeting Jets vs the Chiefs defense at home

New York Jets

RB Chris Ivory

Instead of feeding Ivory to try and actually sustain drives, the Jets figured it would be better to turn the ball over repeatedly and take a bunch of sacks. Think they’ll try that again this week? Look for Ivory to be the engine of the offense, with high percentage throws to Percy Harvin and Eric Decker used to move the chains. Ivory could grind his way to #2 RB value this week.

WR Percy Harvin

Harvin’s debut broke down as follows:

• Opportunities: 4 carries, 3 catches on 9 targets (2nd-most on team)
• Production: 28 rushing yards / 22 receiving yards; 50 total yards, 0 TDs

Plenty of opportunities for Harvin, just not much to show for it. Sounds kind of like his first few Seahawks games. I’ve talked about this kind of usage making Harvin a high-floor play, while also giving him chances at a high ceiling… but he never really came through on that promise as a Seahawk. He could easily take any touch to the house this week, but until we see some evidence that the Jets have an effective plan, we should temper our expectations… especially with the uncertainty at QB. Harvin will be a risky GPP play with a theoretically high ceiling until the game plan and QB situations get sorted out.

WR Eric Decker

Decker’s matchup both worries and intrigues me this week. Decker has notoriously struggled with press coverage, which he should receive in droves from the big, physical Chiefs CB duo. That said, Decker’s primary cover man, Marcus Cooper, is a frequent #GrindDown target, and allowed 391 yards and 5 TDs over a 4 game span earlier in the year. I think Decker will completely whip Cooper a few times this week, but will Vick be able to find him? If you think so, I think you’re looking at the makings of an especially contrarian GPP stack.

QB Mike Vick

Vick looked fairly atrocious in relief of Geno Smith last week, and SERIOUSLY struggled to limit extremely negative plays like fumbles, sacks, etc. There’s always a glimmer of GPP hope with Vick thanks to his legs, but I think we play this as RotoWorld’s Adam Levitan suggested on Friday night’s Expert Roundtable, and avoid Vick against a tenacious defense this week. As Adam points out, Vick then becomes a much better play against the Steelers next week.

TE Jace Amaro

Jace Amaro re-emerged last week to lead the team in receiving with just 51 yards (you read that right). It does seem that Vick likes to go to him, which should boost his value a bit going forward. The Chiefs paradoxically allow the least receptions and receiving yards, but the most TDs to TEs – I would trust the receptions/yards figure more and consider this an unfavorable matchup for Amaro.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

The immovable object meets the extremely fast force this week as the Jets renowned run defense sets up shop in Arrowhead. The Jets are allowing just 74 rushing yards per game to RBs, and also have the top run-defense grade on PFF. It’s the worst possible matchup for Charles, but he has talent that is matchup-proof, and his large role in the passing game will help a ton on full PPR sites. Charles has top-play upside on a weekly basis, just don’t be upset if he’s bottled up a little this week. There are other elite RBs you can take this week that have easier access to their ceilings.

WR Dwayne Bowe

We’re doubling down on a possible Dwayne Bowe Week after he teased us by going a perfect 6/6 on his targets for 64 yards last week. Of course this week the Jets mock-secondary comes to town, which means the Dwayne Bowe ‘Wheel’O’Outcomes’ ranges from 3 catches for 40 yards, to 100+ yards and a TD for possibly the only time this season. The Jets usually aim to give up a completely ridiculous performance to an opposing WR every 2-3 weeks, as evidenced by the following:

Granted all 3 of the examples are freaky physical specimens, but even Dwayne Bowe should be able to get loose vs this secondary. Bowe is a capable tackle breaker, and likely cover man Darrin Walls is tied for the league lead in missed tackles by a CB thus far. There’s a lot working in Bowe’s favor here, which means he’ll probably let us down… But do consider him as your final WR or FLEX in GPPs this week.

TE Travis Kelce

Baby Gronk hauled in 4-45 last week, and showed flashes of the Gronkian tackle-breaking we miss so dearly, but again saw little movement in his snap count. I know, he’s playing the Jets this week, who have allowed a preposterous amount of TDs to TEs so far. There is a possibility of a Baby Gronk-Out here. But there is also a possibility that Andy Reid will dial up 4 short passes to Kelce and call it a day. Kelce is a punt TE with theoretically immense upside this week.

Chiefs Defense

If you watched the Jets game last week you saw Mike Vick do the following:

• Fumble FOUR times
• Get sacked four times
• Throw two picks (one didn’t count)
• Not really know where his RB was going on multiple plays
• Look basically horrible until scrambling

I put all this data into my patented ‘VICK‘ defensive projection system and it said the Chiefs were a Top-3 Defense this week, with top-scoring upside.

NFL Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3