NFL Grind Down: Week Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-16 13:34:48

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Miami at Buffalo

Miami Dolphins						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	42.5	21.25				0	42.5	21.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	33.0	7	27	9		Offense	23.0	14	28	5
Defense	20.0	15	15	17		Defense	20.0	15	28	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo	23	19	20	30		Miami	7	18	11	23
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Wallace	11	11.0	10.7	12.0		Watkins	4
Hartline	4	4.0	7.7	5.0		Woods	6
Gibson	1	1.0				Williams	3
Clay	6					Chandler

Quick Grind

• Low Vegas total but still solid plays that will be overlooked
• Target both running games in GPPs
• Is this the week a Tannehill-Wallace stack wins someone a GPP?

Miami Dolphins

QB Ryan Tannehill
If Ryan Tannehill had a more accurate deep ball he’d have been one of Week 1’s top scorers. Instead, he missed on a few deep throws (one for a pick, one for a sure-fire TD to Mike Wallace) and finished with a mediocre line that many will pass over. This week Tannehill faces a Bills secondary that was abused by 3 Bears WRs, a Bears TE, and a Bears RB. It’s an exploitable defense that simply is not the same without All-Pro safety Jairus Byrd and stud coverage LB Kiko Alonso. If Tannehill can manage to get on the same page with Wallace, this could be the week we see a GPP-winning performance from the duo.

WR Mike Wallace
The Dolphins finally figured out how to use Mike Wallace. The ultimate GPP play last week, Wallace came through with 7 catches for 81 yards and a TD, despite seeing coverage from Darrelle Revis. He and Ryan Tannehill still aren’t on the same page, but the fact that Wallace is being used creatively (he even lined up in the backfield last week) and the passing game is centered around him means he should be on your GPP radar regardless of matchup. That’s especially true this week as he faces a Bills secondary that was whipped by both Bears outside WRs last week. Without former safety Jairus Byrd’s protection over the top, Wallace has a good chance of getting loose on one of the double-moves we saw last week. Roster Wallace as your #2 WR knowing that he has the potential for a top-5 week.

WR Brian Hartline
When Mike Wallace was misused last year, Brian Hartline held occasional value depending on his matchup vs the opposing team’s #2 CB. With Wallace’s role reemphasized this season, I think Hartline’s value and upside will be diminished. I would avoid him until we learn more about his usage in Lazor’s offense.

TE Charles Clay
Clay’s value in real-life outweighs his value in DFS, though he became a reliable target for Ryan Tannehill last season en route to a respectable 69-759-6 finish. Clay played through injury in Week 1 and had a quiet showing (2-27 receiving). His versatility is intriguing in new OC Bill Lazor’s offense, but until we see signs that he’s being used creatively, leave Clay off your rosters. There are both more consistent and higher upside options in his price range this week.

RB Knowshon Moreno
So it looks like Moreno is the Dolphins early-down RB, doesn’t it? Moreno looked completely rejuvenated as he dismantled the Patriots run D to the tune of 24-134-1. For now it appears he’ll cede the third-down role to RB partner Lamar Miller, but any back that receives the early-down work in Lazor’s run-heavy offense is a back worth owning. In that role, Moreno is essentially a much cheaper version of Alfred Morris – a high-volume back who you hope can punch in a TD. Behind a rebuilt offensive line, and facing a Bills D that allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards per game (116.3) in 2013, fire up Moreno as your sneaky #2 RB.

RB Lamar Miller
It’s worth mentioning that Miller didn’t simply fade away as Moreno hogged all the carries in Week 1. Miller tallied 15 touches of his own for 78 total yards and a receiving TD. Miller’s use as the third-down, receiving RB is intriguing this week against a Bills D that allowed 8 catches and 87 yards to Matt Forte last week. Miller is no Forte, but you could do worse in a GPP.

Others
Brandon Gibson is the Dolphins #3 WR and typically mans the slot – he was an afterthought in Week 1 and should be avoided this week

Buffalo Bills

QB EJ Manuel

Manuel was admirable last week vs the Bears as the Bills coaches kept his passing deficiencies hidden with easy completions and read-option fakes to keep the defense off-balance. Manuel scored a rushing TD off a read-option keeper last week, an offensive wrinkle that could make him a sneaky GPP QB in certain weeks. I’m just not sure how he survives this week against a Dolphins defense that had the 5th-highest pass-rushing grade in the NFL last year and the highest grade in the NFL last week (and nearly twice that of the 2nd highest team). Dolphins DE Cameron Wake essentially derailed the Patriots passing attack himself last week, tallying 3 QB hurries, 2 QB hits, and 2 sacks. His defensive linemates tallied another 11 hurries and 5 hits of their own. Such exceptional pressure from just four rushers should lead to a rough day for Manuel, who had the 3rd-lowest completion percentage in the NFL when under pressure last season. Rostering Manuel is an unnecessary risk this week.

WR Sammy Watkins

Watkins will go as Manuel goes. Manuel only threw 22 passes last week, four of which were targeted to Watkins. This week Watkins draws a matchup with probably the best ‘no-name’ CB in the NFL, Brent Grimes. Until we see some evidence that either the Bills will open up the passing game, or are deliberately trying to get the ball in the hands of their coveted first round pick, there is little reason to target Watkins in DFS.

WR Robert Woods

I mentioned last week how underrated I thought Woods was, and he certainly didn’t disappoint in Week 1, leading all Bills receivers in both targets and production with a 4-78 line. Not a flashy line, but it demonstrates the connection he has with EJ Manuel. The two have reportedly been spending additional time together at practice as well, so don’t be surprised when targets in pressure situation go to Woods instead of Watkins. Woods will likely maintain a sneaky floor throughout the year and is a possible low-upside punt option at WR.

RB CJ Spiller

If you’re rostering a Buffalo Bill this week, make it CJ Spiller. While the Bills still misuse Spiller by pounding him between the tackles instead of scheming him into space, they at least gave him the majority of touches last week. Any usage of Spiller is better than no usage, as he only needs a single touch to vault his owners up the standings. Spiller has an intriguing matchup vs a Dolphins defense that had the 13th-worst grade in run defense in 2013, and will be without 2 of their starting LBs for the foreseeable future. If Spiller can get to the second level of this defense, watch out. He’s a high-upside GPP RB that isn’t likely to be heavily owned.

RB Fred Jackson

Do-it-all RB Fred Jackson finished last week with 7-61 rushing, but 38 of it came on his final carry. After that carry, Jackson had an absurd 8.7 YPC. Before it? A mediocre 3.8 YPC, hardly better than Spiller’s mark of 3.5. This week Jackson benefits similarly to Spiller vs the Dolphins linebacker-less defense, and may see additional value as a checkdown receiever if (when) EJ Manuel is overwhelmed by the rush. Jackson remains a relatively high-floor option as your #2 RB due to his versatility, but take caution rostering him in case Spiller’s increased usage is a trend that continues.

Others
I didn’t forget about TE Scott Chandler – there is just little justification for rostering him. If you’re completely punting TE at least choose a player with upside. I’m keeping WR Mike Williams down here for the time being as well. He will always have a glimmer of GPP value given his red-zone ability, but doesn’t project to see enough volume to justify rostering this week.

Detroit at Carolina

Detroit Lions						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	43.5	20.5				-2.5	43.5	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	35.0	3	4	29		Offense	20.0	16	19	24
Defense	14.0	4	2	3		Defense	14.0	4	4	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina	14	8	6	18		Detroit	1	15	1	24
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Johnson	11	11.0	9.0			Benjamin	8
Tate	6	6.0	6.0	9.0		Cotchery	4	4.0	3.7	6.0
Ogletree			4.7	10.0		Avant	1	1.0	4.3	5.0
Ebron						Olsen	11

Quick Grind

• Vegas line suggests CAR D > DET O, making DET O intriguing GPP options
• Kelvin Benjamin emerging?
• Jonathan Stewart starting at RB for Panthers

Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford

Matt Stafford was a top scoring QB Week 1 despite facing a secondary that was strong in 2013 and was projected to be even stronger this season. With additional weapons around him and a better-than-expected OL, Stafford looks poised to helm a likely top-5 offense. This week that offense faces a stiff test – a Panthers defense that earned the 6th-highest overall defensive grade and 6th-highest coverage grade on PFF in 2013. The Panthers strength is their outstanding front-seven, with a DL able of generating pressure from both ends as well as the inside rush, and LBs that clean up plays quickly. The Lions OL held up well week one but did allow 10 hurries across their left side, and the Panthers are in a completely different class than the Giants. Vegas suggests that Stafford is a risky play this week in a game that won’t see much scoring. Avoid Stafford in cash games this week, but don’t be afraid to roll him out as a premiere GPP QB that has elite upside but won’t be heavily owned this week given the matchup.

WR Calvin Johnson

So much for that upgraded Giants secondary. Megatron torched top Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the Giants secondary for a 7-164-2 line that was seen in most GPP-winning lineups last week. Many were off Megatron last week due to his perceived difficult matchup and the perceived positive matchups of other elite WRs, but the truth is that Megatron is matchup-proof and you need exposure to him whenever you can afford it. Johnson becomes more of a GPP option in weeks such as this, where Vegas suggests the Lions will struggle to score. Top Panthers CB Antoine Cason has been impressive so far for his new team, but CBs look a lot better than they are in the Panthers scheme due to a tremendous front seven. Cason allowed a QB rating of 98.0 in his last full season of action (2012), and while he is a large corner, his coverage alone cannot contain Megatron. If Lions QB Matt Stafford can survive the Panthers pass-rush, Megatron will be just fine. However if you’re rostering an elite WR in cash games this week, there are safer choices with easier matchups (i.e. D Thomas, AJ Green, etc.).

WR Golden Tate

Golden Tate demonstrated his excellent hands in Week 1, catching all 6 of his targets for a 6-93 line that finally showed how valuable a real #2 WR could be in Detroit. He will likely offer the highest floor of his career this season, but temper expectations against this secondary. While Calvin Johnson will be force-fed targets, especially if the Lions get down early, Tate is the clear second option and will see limited opportunities. He is a fine #3 WR but a risky bet to repeat his Week 1 performance.

TE Joseph Fauria / Eric Ebron / Brandon Pettigrew

The Lions currently use a three-man platoon at TE which limits the snaps and targets each man receives, and limits the DFS value of the position overall. Fauria has seen his role increase beyond the red-zone-only player we saw in 2013. Ebron is coming along slowly and played only 26.4% of snaps in Week 1. Pettigrew is primarily the in-line blocking TE. Until an injury occurs, or Ebron emerges as the primary pass-catching TE, avoid the entire trio.

RB Reggie Bush

Week 1 taught me that new Lions OC Joe Lombardi likes to play Madden. A few years ago in Madden you used to be able to edit Reggie Bush’s position to WR, where he was much, much better than as a RB. After his 2nd 1000 yard rushing season, it appears Bush has suddenly been changed to a role more suited to his talents. Bush is more chess piece than RB in Lombardi’s offense, a role bore out by Bush’s frequent motion and 6-49 receiving in Week 1. There are certain matchups where this versatility, and Bush’s constant threat of a long TD, will be attractive in DFS. Not this week, against the range of Panthers LBs Thomas Davis and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year/human homing-missile Luke Kuechly.

RB Joique Bell

Joique Bell is being used as the thunder to Bush’s lightning. Or rather, he’s being used as a real RB. Bell went for 15-51-1 in Week 1, and will hold sneaky value in DFS as the exclamation point RB on a high-powered offense. This week Bell faces a formidable Panthers run defense, anchored by second-year DT Star Lotulelei, who had PFF’s 5th-highest run defense grade and 2nd-best run stop % of all DTs in 2013. A replication of last week’s performance is probably Bell’s ceiling this week.

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton

Cam Newton spent Week 1 on the sideline with an injury, yet the Panthers offense hummed along just fine without him. Cam returns this week, yet there isn’t much buzz about him in DFS. When an elite talent has zero buzz in a given week, it’s usually a sign that their matchup doesn’t pop out on paper, and results in their ownership being depressed. That’s where the money is made. Cam has GPP-winning upside, but how willing will he be to run given both his rib injury and preseason ankle injury? It’s likely Cam will be on the run more than he likes on Sunday, as his OL of run-blocking specialists caves to the immense pressure of the Lions pass-rush. Select Cam as a GPP QB that nobody is talking about, and hope he carries you past those who chose safer and more popular options.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

In Week 1, Kelvin Benjamin looked like a guy the Bucs couldn’t figure out how to defend. He beat the press easily. He made contested catches. He pulled down a TD pass that should have been an interception. And this was all with Derek Anderson at QB. There is no doubt he will begin commanding regular double-teams soon as the only viable Panthers WR, but until he does you need to take advantage of his price – this is a guy who has legitimate 2TD upside at WR. There is no doubt his ownership % will be up this week, but he still makes an excellent #3 WR who can produce like a #1.

TE Greg Olsen

Olsen was his usual reliable self in Week 1, racking up an 8-83-1 line as Derek Anderson peppered him with a team-high 11 targets. The Bucs didn’t seem to have an answer for him in coverage. This week Olsen gets a massive upgrade at QB with Cam Newton returning, and also faces a Lions secondary that had trouble defending the supremely unathletic Larry Donnell last week. That said, the Lions had two LBs with top-5 coverage grades at their positions in 2013 (MLB Stephen Tulloch, OLB DeAndre Levy), which might limit Olsen’s upside. Olsen is a solid option on full PPR sites, but if you’re choosing a Panthers pass catcher, I’d go with WR Kelvin Benjamin.

RB Jonathan Stewart

Reports are that usual starting RB DeAngelo Williams won’t play in this game, green-lighting the younger and more talented Jonathan Stewart for the start. Stewart’s potential has been largely capped by his career in the Panthers committee system, and by his own constant injuries. This week he’ll take on a Lions defense that was surprisingly stout vs the run last season, and is coming off an impressive demolishing of the NY Giants. It’s not an encouraging matchup. However, of all the replacement RBs making starts this week, Stewart has the most talent that we’ve actually seen. He could surprise and is a sneaky GPP option.

Others

The Panthers WRs outside Kelvin Benjamin are a collection of dusty old possession receivers who are unappealing in DFS. On we go.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2