NFL Grind Down: Week Two - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-14 14:32:23

N.Y. Jets at Green Bay

						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 4:25 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		8	46	19				-8	46	27
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.0	19	24	1		Offense	16.0	25	26	22
Defense	14.0	4	1	1		Defense	36.0	31	10	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay	26	31	17	7		N.Y. Jets	13	1	14	7
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Decker	7	7.0	9.0	5.0		Cobb	9	9.0	2.0	2.0
Kerley	5	5.0	7.3	8.0		Nelson	14	14.0	10.0	16.0
Nelson	1	1.0	5.0	6.0		Boykin			7.7	4.0
Amaro	4					Quarless	4

Quick Grind

• Target the Packers passing attack in a bounce-back performance
• Avoid the Packers run game
• Jets make interesting GPP options

NY Jets

QB Geno Smith

I’m hoping the Packers jump out to an early lead in this one, because I think Geno is capable of making plays against a defense that was a turnstile to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. With gameflow increasing his passing attempt volume, I like Geno as a GPP QB to stack with WR Eric Decker.

RB Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory

The duo of Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory accounted for over 200 total yards vs the Raiders in Week 1. This week they face a nonexistent Packers run defense that allowed 110 yards and 2 TDS to Marshawn Lynch. It’s not a question of if the Jets RBs will find success against the Packers, it’s more a question of how much success. Both runners are in play this week, but reports are that the Jets are confident that they can couple Seahawks-like run schemes with bruising power back Chris Ivory and find great success on the ground. Ivory likely sees a larger workload this week as a result.

WR Eric Decker

Eric Decker had a solid Jets debut in Week 1, going 5-74. While I’m intrigued by a Geno-Decker stack as a GPP option, I’m not completely confident in his ability to regularly win vs emerging Packers CB Sam Shields. What I am confident in is the Jets rushing attack moving the ball with ease, setting up play-action shots downfield, and opportunities in the red-zone. I like Decker’s chances in those situations, and think he’s solid #2 WR option that could fly under the radar this week.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers was unable to overcome a fierce Seahawks pass-rush in Week 1. Rodgers main concern in this game will come from pressure over the RT position, where fill-in Derek Sherrod quickly allowed 2 drive-killing sacks and an additional two hurries in Week 1. A banana peel could have blocked better than Sherrod in Week 1. The Jets pass-rush is not as formidable as the Seahawks but Rex Ryan will bring a variety blitzes off the edge to confuse and overwhelm Sherrod. Expect frequent alignments where the RT is covered by a TE, or the RB is offset toward the RT – blocking help is the only way the Packers will survive that hole in their line.
If Rodgers has time to throw he should have no trouble navigating the NFL’s worst active secondary. The Jets do return their top CB this week with Dee Milliner returning from injury, but his limitations are likely to be exploited by what will likely be one of the top few offenses in the NFL. Rodgers price has dropped on a few sites following his poor performance vs the Seahawks – take advantage of it while you still can. After a Top-3 performance today, Rodgers won’t be so affordable.

WR Jordy Nelson

Nelson and Rodgers found a rhythm Week 1, even against the Seahawks at home, as Nelson routinely beat Seahawks CB Byron Maxwell en route to a 9 catch, 83 yard day. If the duo are capable of that in the most hostile environment in the NFL, I’m worried what they’re going to unleash on converted safety Antonio Allen, who had never played CB until a few weeks ago. Fellow WR Randall Cobb said the Packers plan to throw deep in this one. Don’t be surprised if Nelson goes off for 100+ yards and 1-2 TDs vs the Jets – all Rodgers needs is a little time in the pocket. If you find Nelson priced outside the top-6 or top-8 WRs this week, pounce.

WR Randall Cobb

Cobb also had a respectable day against the Seahawks, going for 6-58-1 while routinely whipping Seahawks slot CB Jeremy Lane. The Jets don’t have a healthy CB capable of tracking Cobb in the slot, and he should be looked into a high floor as Rodgers second target this week. On full PPR sites, Cobb slips inside the top-10 WRs and typically costs a little less than Jordy Nelson.

WR Jarrett Boykin

Jarrett Boykin was sacrificed to Richard Sherman’s coverage last week and wasn’t even targeted. Expect that to change this week against the vulnerable Jets secondary. I think Rodgers will make a point to get the ball to Boykin in this one.

RB Eddie Lacy

Lacy passed his concussion protocol this week and is good to go versus a virtually impassable Jets front seven. I wouldn’t use Lacy as anything other than a contrarian GPP option against PFF’s top graded (by almost 1.5x) run defense unit. Depending on the success of Derek Sherrod at RT, Lacy might be asked to stay in the block more than usual as well, limiting the checkdown routes he usually runs.

Others

The Packers TE position doesn’t have an established receiving threat right now and is likely to be a glorified blocked in this game.

Houston at Oakland

Houston Texans						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:25 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	40	21.5				3	40	18.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.0	21	21	23		Offense	14.0	27	32	32
Defense	6.0	1	17	27		Defense	19.0	14	9	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland	9	29	4	13		Houston	3	21	13	15
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Johnson	9	9.0	10.7	9.0		Streater	7	7.0	7.7	9.0
Hopkins	5	5.0	4.7	5.0		Jones	3	3.0	8.7	7.0
Martin			4.0	3.0		Holmes			7.7	8.0
Graham						Ausberry

Quick Grind

• Second lowest total
•MJD out for Oakland; DMC gets the starting gig for a week

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

Foster racked up 27 carries for 103 rushing yards in Week 1 – guess he’s the bellcow RB again. He draws an enticing matchup vs a Raiders D that was gashed for over 200 yards on the ground in Week 1. Despite multiple new additions to the defense, the Raiders don’t seem to be improving and should be targeted until they get things figured out. If Foster manages another 25+ touches, he’s a virtual lock for a high floor and a few opportunities at a TD. He’s likely ends up on the back-end of the top RBs this week though.

WR Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson started 2014 with a steady 6-93 line and led the team in targets vs the Redskins. Fitzpatrick clearly knows to look his way. Johnson probably would have been good for a few more targets in a closer contest, but the Texans instead fed the ball to Arian Foster and let him bleed the clock. He has a solid matchup against a patchwork, veteran Raiders secondary that hasn’t been tested yet. Expect fringe top-to production from Johnson this week at only a top-15ish price throughout the industry.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins had a 76-yard TD via busted coverage in Week 1 to supplement an otherwise unspectacular 3-13 day. On weeks where the Texans can get a lead and begin grinding their run game, there aren’t likely to be many targets for Hopkins. Hopkins isn’t very appealing as the 2nd or 3rd receiving option on a run-first team with a noodle-arm QB. You can find better options this week.

Others

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to keep his team afloat while funneling targets to his #1 WR, but not good enough to be valuable on his own most weeks. TE Garrett Graham returns from injury this week, but see how he’s used in this offense before getting him in your lineups.

Oakland Raiders

WR Denarius Moore / Rod Streater / James Jones

The Raiders receivers are a mess, with no clear-cut number one option. Once Derek Carr took over at QB, Denarius Moore went from possible roster cut to being thrust into the starting lineup (presumably due to his time with the 2nd-team and Carr), but he has failed to impress. He is a boom-or-bust deep threat/big play type receiver who seems to either run hot or run cold – he ran cold in Week 1 pulling in 2 passes for a whopping 8 yards. We have yet to see Moore actually be targeted on the routes he excels at, but his potential as a deep threat makes him the best GPP option of the Raiders bunch.
Rod Streater has been a quietly steady presence for the raiders since 2013, when he racked up 60 catches for 888 yards. He had the best performance of a Raiders WR in Week 1 with a 5-46-1 line. Coaches have praised the connection between Carr and Streater, a connection which should lead to preferential targets for Streater, especially in pressure situations.
James Jones, the veteran, has been pushed up and down the depth chart but caught a TD in Week 1 despite playing half the snaps of the other two WRs. He should be the best bet for TDs among Raiders WRs.

RB Darren McFadden / Latavius Murray

With Maurice Jones-Drew out this week, the Raiders will turn to a two-headed committee of veteran Darren McFadden and freak talent rookie Latavius Murray. Based on comments from the coaching staff, it sounds like each back will be given their own series to establish a rhythm. This makes the better DFS option basically unpredictable. Either back could find success against a surprisingly porous Texans rush D that allowed 6.5 YPC to Alfred Morris in Week 1. Both also have the athleticism to break long runs. It’s simply a matter of who does it first. If I’m choosing one Raiders RB to roll the dice on it’s Murray. The Raiders don’t need to be giving him a shot in this game, yet they are. Murray is the RB of the future in Oakland, so I like him to get in a little earlier in the rotation, and stay in a little longer (barring any mistakes). Whichever you choose, they are deep GPP-only fodder among a host of other replacement RBs in play this week.

Others

QB Derek Carr needs to show he can move beyond short-intermediate throws before he warrants consideration in DFS. TE Mychal Rivera is far down the list of punt options at TE. Marcel Reese is an intriguing receiving option out of the backfield but needs one more RB injury before he becomes relevant.

Chicago at San Francisco

Chicago Bears						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 8:30 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	48.5	20.75				-7	48.5	27.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.0	16	4	12		Offense	28.0	10	22	18
Defense	23.0	18	5	28		Defense	17.0	9	21	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco	4	22	27	3		Chicago	19	25	3	1
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Marshall	12	12.0	10.7	10.0		Crabtree	4	4.0	7.0	8.0
Jeffery	6	6.0	7.3	8.0		Boldin	9	9.0	8.7	11.0
Holmes	5	5.0	6.0	4.0		Johnson	2
Bennett	10					Davis	6

Quick Grind

• Target the 49ers rushing attack
• Expect Chicago to lean on Matt Forte
• Be careful with the Bears WRs

Chicago Bears

Update: Adam Schefter reporting he’s ‘75%’ sure that NEITHER Brandon Marshall nor Alshon Jeffery will play
Impact:

QB Jay Cutler: Severe downgrade. Avoid him completely if he’s without his top 2 weapons

WR Santonio Holmes: Upgrade. Holmes becomes Cutler’s #1 WR option in the passing attack. He likely will be the second or third option on most plays given Cutler’s comfort with Forte and Bennett.

TE Martellus Bennett: Upgrade. Bennett has an extremely tough matchup in elite cover LB Patrick Willis, but will see additional volume between the 20s, and become the primary red-zone option as well.

RB Matt Forte: Sidegrade? Though the offense will run through Forte even MORE now, expect the 49ers D to stack the box as much as possible given the Bears lack of passing weapons.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaepernick didn’t have to do much last week vs a Cowboys team content with beating itself. However, there is an interesting report this week suggesting the 49ers might whip out the read-option again this week. If that’s the case, QB becomes a high-ceiling GPP play given his athleticism and the effectiveness of the read option against unprepared opponents (just ask the Packers).
RB Frank Gore

Ol reliable Frank Gore just keeps on producing. He doesn’t have a very high ceiling any more, but will receive the lion’s share of carries in competitive games. Running behind an OL with the 2nd-highest run-blocking grade in 2013, Gore should find himself firmly within the top-15 RBs this week and is a strong play in cash games.

WR Michael Crabtree

Take caution with Crabtree this week. He clearly isn’t back to full health and isn’t yet playing a full snap count either. Avoid.

WR AnquanBoldin

With Crabtree still hobbled Boldin is the most reliable 49ers receiver. He isn’t a big play threat, but his sure hands and route-running help him rack up production, especially on full PPR sites.

TE Vernon Davis

Davis had an excellent and efficient Week 1, catching 2 TDS on only 6 targets on his way to a 4-44-2 line vs the Cowboys. Davis is a touchdown-dependent TE who produces big fantasy numbers despite low target volume. He is always in play when facing subpar coverage safeties like Chicago’s.

Philadelphia at Indianapolis

Philadelphia Eagles						Indianapolis Colts
Mon – 8:30 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	53.5	25.25				-3	53.5	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	34.0	4	10	14		Offense	24.0	13	3	20
Defense	17.0	9	18	5		Defense	31.0	25	22	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis	29	14	7	32		Philadelphia	22	3	30	10
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Maclin	11					Hilton	11	11.0	11.3	15.0
Cooper	8	8.0	4.3	3.0		Wayne	13
Matthews	4					Nicks	5	5.0	5.3	4.0
Ertz	4					Allen	5

Quick Grind

• Gary Oldman Game of the Week!
• Basically everyone but the mascots and Trent Richardson is in play

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Nick Foles

Eagles QB Nick Foles has a juicy matchup against a Colts defense that had no answers for the Denver Broncos. They likely won’t have answers for the pace of Chip Kelly’s scheme either. What remains to be seen is how Foles adjusts to All-World LG Evan Mathis’s injury. The Eagles were already thin across the line as they wait for RT Lane Johnson to return from suspension. Mathis is simply irreplaceable. The Colts minus Robert Mathis won’t likely have the pass-rush to disrupt much of what the Eagles try to do but we might see some hiccups in the protection nonetheless. As long as Foles’ pocket stays clean, he should cruise to a win, and end up as a top-10 QB as well.

RB LeSean McCoy

Perhaps the bigger impact of the Eagles losses on the OL is on RB LeSean McCoy. McCoy is already dealing with a potential production leech in new chess piece RB Darren Sproles, losing Mathis is like losing his ticket to the second level of the defense. The Eagles should still handle the Colts bottom-10 graded run D, and Shady will enjoy a bounce back performance. He’s the clear top option this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin seems to be an excellent fit for Chip Kelly’s attack, pulling in 4 catches for 97 yards and a TD in Week 1. A week after being eaten up by Emmanuel Sanders, Colts CB Greg Toler is likely due for the same fate in this one. Maclin is stud full PPR option who is still too cheap.

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz had a solid Week 1, tallying 3-77-1 vs Jacksonville. He’s becoming quite the route-running nightmare for opposing defenses. Kind of like another TE that just lit up the Colts for 3TDs last week. Expect Chip Kelly to attack the Colts obvious coverage limitations with Ertz. He’s an excellent TE option who is likely still a few weeks away from having his price catch up appropriately.

Indianapolis Colts

WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY