NFL Grind Down: Week Two - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-14 14:29:21

Seattle at San Diego

Seattle Seahawks						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:05 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6	44.5	25.25				6	44.5	19.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	36.0	2	23	7		Offense	17.0	21	17	31
Defense	16.0	7	7	11		Defense	18.0	13	24	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego	28	23	23	6		Seattle	5	16	15	4
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Harvin	7	7.0				Allen	9	9.0	6.7	8.0
Baldwin	5	5.0	4.7	1.0		Floyd	6	6.0
Kearse	3	3.0	3.3	0.0		Royal	6	6.0	5.0	5.0
Willson	1					Green	2

Quick Grind

• Don’t get cute playing many Chargers against the Seahawks defense
• Marshawn Lynch is a Top-5 RB option

Seattle Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson

Wilson does just what he need to do for his team to win the game, but unlike traditional ‘game managers’, he doesn’t have athletic or arm strength limitations. It will take a stronger defense than the Chargers to bring out the best in Wilson’s playmaking and rushing talents, but view him as a strong second QB or contrarian primary QB given the safety of his floor.

WR Percy Harvin

The Seahawks put on a clinic in Week 1 on how to get the ball in the hands of your deadliest playmaker. Harvin was utilized through the air (7-59) and on the ground (4-41) in Week 1. He looks to have an especially high weekly floor due to his manufactured touches, coupled with a rare ceiling. He is certain to be a popular weekly option for that reason, and should be one of the first names you click when deciding on a second WR. His versatility makes him largely matchup proof.

RB Marshawn Lynch

A week after facing a Packers team that had the 4th-worst grade in run defense in 2013, Marshawn Lycnh gets the pleasure of facing a Chargers team that had the 5th-worst grade. The Seahawks offense still runs through Lynch, and in this matchup I don’t see very much that will be able to stop it. Lynch is a top-3 option this week.

Others

The Seahawks offense runs through the three players above. Deeper options include WRs Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, but their performance is likely volatile week-to-week (and was even overshadowed by a Ricardo Lockette appearance in Week 1).

San Diego Chargers

My general advice is to avoid offensive players vs Seattle

QB Phillip Rivers

The Chargers had the 8th-worst team pass-blocking grade on PFF last season. They also recently lost a key piece of that line to injury. The Seahawks had the highest pass-rushing grade, more than 1.5 times the team with the second highest grade. This is very bad news for Phillip Rivers. Avoid him this week.

RB Ryan Mathews

The Seahawks are less formidable vs the run than the pass (9th fewest rush yards allowed/game), but that doesn’t make Mathews task easy by any means. Run-blocking is the strength of this Chargers OL, so it’s conceivable that Mathews is the highest Chargers scorer this week. Pivot to one of the replacement RBs instead and load up your roster elsewhere.

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen has a chance to produce here if the Chargers use him at LWR against Byron Maxwell. Maxwell is no slouch but was frequently picked on by Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson last week (when Rodgers had time to throw). It’s a big risk to take knowing that he might be essentially shut down if the Chargers aren’t creative. I would fire up Allen at a reduced price next week.

TE Antonio Gates

Gates surprisingly led the Chargers in targets Week 1. Writing how difficult everyone’s matchup is is getting redundant, so here’s my comments about TEs vs Seattle from last week:
“…a bevy of athletic linebackers who are also effective in coverage (including a top-5 rated coverage OLB in K.J Wright), as well as imposing safety Kam Chancellor. Don’t be fooled by their rank as only the 13th-toughest versus the TE: aside from a bizarre game in which Matt Schaub became the only QB to throw for 300+ yards against Seattle in 2013 (including 140 yds and a TD to his TEs), the Seahawks have been downright stingy vs the TE”.
The verdict is the same for Gates as it is for the other Chargers weapons – avoid.

Others

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers put Malcolm Floyd across from Sherman at RWR and just run him off with deep routes. Even if he draws Maxwell instead, Floyd’s chances of taking the top off All-Pro safety Earl Thomas’s defense are slim. Until TE Lardarius Green forces his way into more playing time, he’s simply too risky to roster.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay

St. Louis Rams						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 4:05 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	37	15.5				-6	37	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	6.0	31	13	25		Offense	14.0	27	29	3
Defense	34.0	27	3	29		Defense	20.0	15	14	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay	24	9	11	28		St. Louis	15	5	29	17
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Austin	3	3.0				Jackson	9	9.0	10.0	12.0
Britt			6.0			Evans	9
Bailey			4.7	5.0		Murphy			2.7	5.0
Cook	8					Seferian-Jenkins	2

Quick Grind

• The Tampa Twin Towers (can I trademark that?) deserve GPP stack consideration
• Avoid the Rams offense

St. Louis Rams

RB Zac Stacy

As the most viable Rams offensive player, Stacy is up first. Stacy has a number of factors working against him in the game. 1) He’s currently in a committee with Benny Cunningham that is nearly 50-50 in terms of touches and Cunningham actually leads in snap % (46.8% vs 44%). 2) This game has the lowest total of the week, with the Rams projected to score a measly 15.5 points. 3) The Rams have no threat of a passing attack right now, so Stacy will face stacked boxes.
Despite all this I still think Stacy has an intriguing matchup. The Bucs had the 7th-worst defense grade in the NFL last season. The Bucs also will be without starting DEs Adrien Clayborn and Michael Johnson this week. Johnson loss is huge – he had the 2nd-highest run defense grade in the NFL last year for the Bengals. Stacy should have room to run in this one, and if he can get going early the Rams will keep feeding him. We saw the same story last season. Stacy is a reliable, high-volume runner. I think he gets the volume this week.

WR Brian Quick

The only viable Rams receiving option (so far) is Brian Quick, who had an exceptional camp and pulled in 7-99 in Week 1. Quick has always had the size and athleticism, and reports suggest he final gets it as a football player. He’s priced around other lower-tier possession/slot WRs and is intriguing if you think the Rams will be throwing all day. There’s a good chance they will be if they can’t get the run game established early.

Others

There’s no need to analyze the other Rams receiving options until one of them produces with Shaun Hill at QB. Hill himself should be avoided this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB Josh McCown

There will be weeks this season where McCown’s receivers will do enough that they can pull McCown’s value up with them. Facing a Rams secondary that was graded bottom-8 in the NFL in coverage last season and is already banged up at CB, this could be McCown’s week. Maximize his value by stacking McCown with Vincent Jackson, or Mike Evans, or both

WR Vincent Jackson / WR Mike Evans

If you target one player from this game, make it either Vincent Jackson or Mike Evans. They pose such a mismatch for the Rams from a size standpoint that I don’t see any way one of them doesn’t score a TD in this game. Jackson draws the easier matchup but also is universally more expensive despite providing arguably the same upside as Evans. Evans is cheaper, and will find additional opportunities running routes from the slot, which should pose a unique challenge to the Rams defense. If forced to choose one, I save the salary and go with Evans, but either one makes a solid GPP play.

RB Doug Martin

Martin is one of many RBs who struggled Week 1 and is a little banged up. Coupled with the low total, Martin will definitely be overlooked this week. His matchup is slightly plus against a worse-than-average Rams run D, and is more favorable now in the wake of defensive anchor Chris Long’s injury. Martin should see plenty of volume and have gameflow on his side. He’s a risky #2 RB option.

Kansas City at Denver

Kansas City Chiefs						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:25 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		12	51	19.5				-12	51	31.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	10.0	30	25	20		Offense	31.0	8	11	26
Defense	26.0	21	19	16		Defense	24.0	20	30	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver	30	12	24	26		Kansas City	27	17	22	22
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Bowe			7.0			Thomas	11	11.0	8.3	6.0
Avery	13	13.0	2.3	0.0		Sanders	9	9.0	4.0	4.0
Jenkins			2.7	7.0		Welker
Kelce	5					Thomas	8

Quick Grind

• One of the highest totals and a spread of 12… this one won’t end well for KC
• Target the entire Broncos offense – there is a Top-5 option at nearly every position

Kansas City Chiefs

QB Alex Smith

Alex Smith gets a mention here just to acknowledge that he will be throwing… a lot. He’s had success against the Broncos in similar situations last year, and although he returns the same limited offensive arsenal this season, he does have a possible seam-stretching TE in Travis Kelce. Smith’s increased volume of attempts coupled with his propensity to pull the ball down and run make him a sneaky cheap play at QB.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Bowe comes off suspension this week and will immediately slot in as the top target in the Chiefs passing attack. Unfortunately this week that role comes with a horrible matchup against AqibTalib, a big and physical CB who was top-25 in both catch % allowed and QB rating allowed last season (despite him mainly shadowing #1 WRs). If you’re a risk-taker, Bowe’s ownership will be miniscule this week, but beyond volume there’s very little working in his favor here.

TE Travis Kelce

My favorite play from the Chiefs passing attack this week is TE Travis Kelce. Kelce’s hype train was chugging full force after a few solid preseason games, until it derailed after he only played 18 snaps in Week 1. Turns out raw athleticism doesn’t equal automatic playing time in the NFL (sorry Twitter). Chiefs HC Andy Reid kindasorta admitted he made a mistake with Kelce’s playing time, and I anticipate Kelce being given an expanded role against the Broncos. The Chiefs simply have no other playmakers beyond Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. If you’re looking for a lottery ticket TE this week, Kelce is a great option.

RB Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles is the Chiefs only hope to hang around in this game, and even that hope is slight. We should anticipate a heavy workload for the star RB this week after he received only 11 in Week 1. He’ll have his work cut out for him to produce regardless of volume, however, against 2013’s 2nd-toughest defense vs the run. To make matters worse, the Chiefs already putrid OL just lost their LG for the year. Charles has undeniable talent and the upside to transcend any matchup, but I think his chances of being contained are at their highest this week. If you’re paying up for an elite RB, I recommend choosing one that has more working in their favor.

Others

Donnie Avery returns to #2 WR duties this week but isn’t as appealing as other options at his salary. The other Chiefs WRs are irrelevant.

Denver Broncos

_Not much analysis needed here – all the Broncos are in play _

QB Peyton Manning

All of the Broncos weapons are in play this week, starting with Peyton Manning. Peyton should find plenty of matchups to exploit in a Chiefs defense that is banged up or depleted at multiple spots. There’s little else to say in a game where his team is such a huge favorite: Peyton is locked in as a top-3 option at QB.

WR Demaryius Thomas

Thomas had a quiet Week 1, catching only 4 of his 11 targets for 48 yards. He did receive a few red-zone targets, which surprisingly was not his forte last season. Expect DT to destroy the coverage of Chiefs CB Marcus Cooper, whom he racked up over 200 yards against in their meetings last year. He’ll be picking up yards in chunks all night. DT is a top-2 WR this week.

TE Julius Thomas

Orange Julius defined which rosters had a shot at winning GPPs last week with a 3TD performance vs the Colts. His price has actually surpassed Jimmy Grahams on a few sites as a result. This week, he faces the coverage of All-Pro safety Eric Berry, who he beat for a TD last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Peyton doesn’t look Julius’ way as much in this one, as he focuses on the easier matchups for his WRs outside. Thomas will still get his, and is an elite option at TE.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

Sanders impressed in his Broncos regular season debut (6-77), playing both outside and in the slot, and working routes underneath the Thomases. He should be a solid option on full PPR sites as he works against CBs Ron Parker and Sean Smith depending on his alignment.

RB Montee Ball

Of all the Broncos players, I was least high on Ball prior to last week. Then the Chiefs lost both DE Mike Devito and LB Derrick Johnson. Johnson was the heart of the KC defense and tied with Patrick Willis with the 3rd-best overall grade of all 3-4 MLBs in 2013. Devito had the Chiefs highest run defense grade and earned the 4th-best run defense grade of all 3-4 Des in 2013. The impact of these losses is immense, and they warrant rocketing Ball up to top-6 or top-8 consideration as your #1 RB this week.

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