NFL Grind Down: Week Two - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-14 14:27:42

Arizona at N.Y. Giants

Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	42	22.25				2.5	42	19.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.0	20	9	18		Offense	14.0	27	31	30
Defense	17.0	9	16	2		Defense	35.0	30	28	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
N.Y. Giants	31	20	31	10		Arizona	8	7	8	21
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Floyd	7	7.0	7.3	12.0		Cruz	6	6.0	7.0
Fitzgerald	4	4.0	8.3	11.0		Randle	3	3.0	4.0	1.0
Brown	5					Jernigan	7	7.0	9.0	7.0
Carlson	1					Robinson

Quick Grind

• Keep an eye on Carson Palmer’s status before rosters lock
• Avoid the Giants offense until they show signs of life

Arizona Cardinals

QB Carson Palmer

A week after shredding the Chargers defense for 304 yards and 2 TDs, Palmer’s status is in doubt due to a shoulder injury. He hasn’t thrown in front of the media all week and appears to be a true GTD Sunday. We’ll know his status before rosters lock, but even then, do you want to hinge your rosters on a 34-year old QB with a bum shoulder? Palmer’s ownership % will be miniscule this week, but action that at your own risk. Avoid Cardinals WRs if Palmer isn’t able to go.

WR Michael Floyd

Floyd led the Cardinals in targets last week on his way to a 5-119 line against the Chargers. If you didn’t already think Floyd was the #1 option in this passing attack, consider that NY beat writers are predicting that top Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will shadow Floyd Sunday. DRC was torched by Calvin Johnson last week, but he still presents a difficult matchup for the emerging Floyd. Coupled with Carson Palmer’s shoulder issues, that’s enough to make me leery of rostering Floyd this week.

WR Larry Fitzgerald

After Fitzgerald’s 1-22 (yes, you read that right) Week 1, Cardinals boss Bruce Arians told the media the opposite of what every other coach says when a player is underused – that he wasn’t going to force Fitzgerald the ball. QB Carson Palmer echoed that sentiment. Naturally I think the Cardinals will now do the opposite of what they claim, and force Fitz some targets on high-percentage routes. Star players get fed in these situations. Ultimately Fitz will draw an easier matchup than Michael Floyd, but there are attractive cheap options at WR that provide higher upside.

WR John Brown

I love this kid. Brown carried his momentum from a stellar offseason and preseason into Week 1, where he took a screen pass 13 yards for his first career TD. His final line of 2-29-1 doesn’t look like much, but it’s encouraging to see Bruce Arians already calling Brown’s number after suggesting he’d see 60% of the snaps as the #3 WR this season (he played 58% in Week 1). Of course you can’t talk about John Brown without talking about TY Hilton and the role of the vertical receiver in Arians offense. It’s an inconsistent role, to be sure, but we play DFS one week at a time, and we will see explosive games out of this kid if Carson Palmer can stay healthy. Brown played 53.8% of his Week 1 snaps in the slot, per PFF, but draws a tough matchup there this week in former-Seahawk Walter Thurmond III. He is a GPP long-shot this week.

RB Andre Ellington

We’ve seen this situation countless times: player X suffers [foot/ankle/toe] injury, yet plays through it and is a shell of his old self. CJ Spiller playing through a high-ankle sprain last year is a good example. Players that rely on their agility and explosion can manage to “play” on their injury, but are better decoys than playmakers. And they are extremely risky DFS plays. Ellington looked good in Week 1 considering his status leading up to the game, but he makes for an unnecessary risk this week where the variety of punt plays at RB allow you to bypass the mid-range altogether.

New York Giants

QB Eli Manning

Until Eli Manning demonstrates that he is going to utilize his top WRs instead of featuring UDFA TE Larry Donnell, he is not worth considering in DFS. End of story.

WR Victor Cruz

After a lackluster Week 1 where he only had 6 targets, Victor Cruz publically called for more action his way. This should mean Cruz gets peppered with targets, but I can’t trust anyone on the Giants offense right now. Cruz gets an additional downgrade via his matchup with stud CB Patrick Peterson. Regardless whether you think Peterson is truly elite or not, he represents a difficult matchup for most WRs based on his reactions, athleticism, and ball skills. Cruz is worth a GPP flier based on the success rate of the ‘squeeky wheel gets the grease’ theory in the NFL, but don’t bet the farm on anyone in this offense just yet.

WR Reuben Randle

Reuben Randle received 3 targets in Week 1. The combination of TE Larry Donnell and #3 WR Jerrel Jernigan received 15 targets. Until this imbalance is addressed you should avoid Randle in DFS.

TE Larry Donnell

Larry Donnell, fantasy superstar? For reasons unknown to me, Eli Manning took multiple downfield and end-zone shots to Donnell in Week 1. To Donnell’s credit, he converted his team-high 8 targets into 5 catches, 56 yards, and a TD. This week Donnell gets the added benefit of facing a Cardinals defense known for its inability to cover the TE last season. Even Donnell should have extra room to work with in this one, making him a punt possibility.

Dallas at Tennessee

Dallas Cowboys						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 1:00 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	49.5	23.25				-3	49.5	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.0	21	12	8		Offense	26.0	12	14	17
Defense	28.0	23	11	14		Defense	10.0	3	8	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee	6	2	2	25		Dallas	20	12	9	29
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Bryant	6	6.0	13.7	13.0		Wright	7
Williams	7					Hunter	8	8.0	2.0	3.0
Harris	2	2.0	0.0	0.0		Washington	6
Witten	6					Walker	4

Quick Grind

•ALL of the Titans
• Titans offense is cheap… but will be among highest- owned players

Dallas Cowboys

QB Tony Romo

At the very least, we can say that Tony Romo CAN’T be any worse than he was last week, right? Romo face-planted in Week 1 vs a 49ers defense that was without several key starters. He had no business making any of the throws that resulted in interceptions, repeatedly trying to force the ball to Dez Bryant with multiple defenders nearby. Vegas anticipates a bounce-back from the Cowboys offense this week in a game that should be close but will feature plenty of scoring. Romo’s matchup looks tough on paper: the Titans were a top-10 graded pass coverage unit in 2013, but lost one of their top cover men to free agency and are starting unproven players at multiple positions. I think the Cowboys lean heavily on the run in this game, and don’t anticipate Romo forcing throws like he did vs the 49ers. Even if Romo bounces back in Week 2, there are higher upside plays in his salary range.

WR Dez Bryant

Another Cowboy who had a disappointing Week 1, Dez Bryant managed only 4 catches for 55 yards vs the 49ers constant double-coverages and ball-hawking of Romo. Dez runs into another difficult matchup in this one as he draws top Titans CB Jason McCourty in coverage. McCourty had the top coverage grade on the Titans last season and also received the 10th-best coverage grade of all CBs in 2013. Dez can go off for 2TDs in any game… but he’ll have his hands full in this one.

TE Jason Witten

Witten struggled worse than any other Cowboys receiver in Week 1, hauling in only 2 catches for a measly 14 yards. However, where the 49ers have elite coverage LBs as well as versatile coverage safeties to shut down TE production, the Titans have horrible coverage LBs. Witten is a prime candidate to bounce back this week – he should have a high floor on full PPR sites.

RB DeMarco Murray

Lost in the buzz about how bad Tony Romo was in Week 1, was how good DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys run-blocking were. Running behind the 3rd-best run-blocking OL in 2013, Murray gashed the injury-riddled 49ers defense for 22-118-1 on the ground and another 3-25 through the air in Week 1. The Titans earned an average grade in run defense in 2013 but don’t have an adequate replacement for athletic LB Zach Brown who is out for the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Murray repeated his Week 1 performance in this one – he’s a Top-5 option at RB that will be less-owned than others with similar ceilings.

Tennessee Titans

QB Jake Locker

Locker is the guy everyone is talking about this week. And for good reason: he’s cheap, he looked great Week 1, and he faces potentially the NFL’s worst defense. It’s truly a prime matchup: the Cowboys were 30th against the pass in 2013 and also allowed the 2nd most points to opposing QBs.
Unfortunately when a guy pops up in enough articles during the week, his ownership spikes – so instead of giving you the edge in a GPP, now there’s a pack of people right there with you. That’s Locker this week. According to our own SBK’s incredibly helpful article on Thursday slate ownership The Field Report: Week 2 Locker was the most popular QB across the Thursday sample used. Factor that into your decisions when building GPP lineups. Locker is actually a possible though unconventional cash game play this week as his floor is likely much higher than it would be most weeks

WR Kendall Wright

The top option in the Titans passing game is WR Kendall Wright. Not exactly a prototypical #1 WR at 5’10, 184 lbs., Wright still racked up a 94 catch, 1079 yard 2013 due largely to his separation skills. The elusiveness and explosion he displayed at Baylor is definitely present in his NFL game, but still seems largely under the surface to me. Wright cut ~10lbs this offseason to increase his explosiveness – if successful I think he’ll become an Antonio Brown-lite type player. Wright scored a rare TD in Week 1 in addition to hauling in 6 passes for 46 yards. Expect him to see 10+ targets in this one as the offenses trade blows.

WR Nate Washington

Nate Washington is simply a complementary player in this offense. He’ll run intermediate and deep routes to clear out defenders, but is rarely the 1st read on a play. The reason he’s stuck as the #2 WR has a lot to do with his value in the run game – Washington tied for the 10th-best blocking grade of all WRs in 2013. Washington is the one Titans player who will be underowned this week, so if you want exposure to this offense and also want to differentiate yourself from the field, Washington is your guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if he slips behind the defense this week.

WR Justin Hunter

The Titan’s #3 WR is ascending talent Justin Hunter. Hunter is the poster boy for explosive WRs with prototype measurable – he’s been using his 6’4 frame and jump-outta-the-gym vertical to corral what beat reporters are calling an ‘unstoppable’ endzone fade route. Hunter’s 2014 debut was exactly thrilling (3-63) but he showcased his big-play potential on a 39-yard grab. That’s the reason people are gravitating to Hunter this week: he can vault you up the standings in one play.

TE Delanie Walker

Walker seems like a last resort in the Titans passing attack, constrained to either blocking or running comfort routes for Locker. Walker doesn’t have the size of a typical TE (6’0, 248) so his red-zone impact is less than you would expect, but he was able to pull in a TD in Week 1. This week is probably the best week of the season to choose Walker as your punt TE, with the Cowboys fresh off giving up 2 TDs to 49ers TE Vernon Davis.

RB Shonn Greene

Greene is the Titan I don’t hear many people talking about. The Cowboys had the 3rd-worst grade in the NFL last season vs the run in 2013 and has suffered an ever growing number of personnel losses through injury, suspension, and free agency. The Titans road-grading run-blocking (4th-highest run-blocking grade in 2013) matches up well with the Cowboys deficiencies. Regardless what you think about Greene’s talent, he gets what’s blocked. And his OL should get an awful lot blocked for him this week. Fire Greene up as an alternative to the popular punt RBs this week, and hope he’s the one doing the scoring for the Titans.

Jacksonville at Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	43	18.5				-6	43	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.0	21	15	28		Offense	6.0	31	16	6
Defense	34.0	27	23	17		Defense	17.0	9	12	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington	12	4	19	2		Jacksonville	16	26	18	27
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Lee	10					Garcon	12	12.0	12.7	10.0
Shorts						Jackson	9	9.0	8.3	4.0
Hurns	9					Roberts	3	3.0	3.7	6.0
Lewis	9					Reed	1

Quick Grind

• Look for the Redskins to re-assert their running game to set up deep shots to DJax
• Toby Gerhart has an enticing matchup vs a porous Redskins run D

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Chad Henne

Henne has an appealing matchup against a Redskins defense that earned the 5th-worst PFF coverage grade in 2013, but is still throwing to a bunch of injured/unproven weapons. Henne is near the top of the punt QB class given the strength of his matchup. You could do a lot worse this week.

RB Toby Gerhart

Gerhart looks good to go this week following a minor ankle injury, and faces an extremely appealing matchup against a defense that has only gotten worse since I wrote this last week:

“Foster should have little trouble cracking a Redskins D that was rated second-worst vs the run on PFF and gave up the 4th-most FPs to RBs in 2013. An additional bonus is the Redskins 30th ranked scoring defense, which also gave up the most RB rushing TDs per game in the NFL last season”.

Foster racked up 103 yards rushing vs this unit in Week 1, a feat that Gerhart shouldn’t have trouble reaching in what should be his breakout game as a Jag. Many will be off Gerhart after his poor showing last week vs the quietly solid Eagles run D. Capitalize on their mistakes and roster Gerhart as your #2 RB vs this atrocious run defense.

WR Allen Hurns

Hurns had an incredible Week 1 as the Jaguars deep threat. Unfortunately his 4-110-2 last week has rocketed his price up on some sites. Hurns finds himself priced between Vincent Jackson and Michael Crabtree on DK (pass). On FD he is the same price as Justin Hunter (pass). His matchup is good, and his role is secure this week, there just seem to be countless better options at Hurns’ salary.

Marqise Lee

Lee is shaping up as a sneaky low-salary WR on full PPR sites after coming of a 6-62 day vs the Eagles in Week 1. He’ll draw the easiest matchup of the day when he works out of the slot and faces CB EJ Biggers, who allowed a QB Rating of 112.1 on throws into his coverage in 2013.

Others

TE Mercedes Lewis received 9 targets in Week 1 but didn’t do much with them. We’ve been waiting on his red-zone prowess to re-emerge since 2011.

Washington Redskins

QB Robert Griffin III

RG3 completed 78.4% of his passes last week, but they didn’t add up to much (267-0-0). He didn’t take vertical shots, and he ran a total of zero read-option plays in Week 1. I’m not sure how this possibly makes RG3 a more dangerous or effective real-life QB, but I know it takes him out of consideration in DFS. Until his usage within the offense changes, I would avoid RG3 outside of deep GPP bullets.

WR DeSean Jackson

DJax became a glorified possession WR in Week 1, averaging only 7.8 yards per catch, less than half his 2013 average (16.2). There’s been reports this week suggesting that the Redskins is will lean on play-action to set up deep shots to Jackson. It would be a welcome addition to an offense that didn’t have time to set up deep passes with All-World DE JJ Watt constantly in the backfield. Jackson will always have GPP appeal, and his ownership is likely going to be miniscule given the out-of-sync offense in Washington.

WR Pierre Garcon

Garcon isn’t complaining about quick-pass scheme the Redskins used in Week 1, after he pulled in 10 of his 12 targets for 77 yards. He should receive a high volume of targets again this week against a banged up Jags secondary, and makes for a strong #2 WR on full PPR sites.

TE Niles Paul

Paul replaces the injured Jordan Reed this week. He had a surprisingly good showing in relief of Reed in Week 1, going 4-86 against the Texans. If there’s any replacement TE that can be an effective pass-catcher, it’s Paul, a former WR. I don’t think he ends up getting enough targets to be a high-ceiling option, but he makes for an intriguing punt TE against a Jags D that is without safety Jonathan Cyprien

RB Alfred Morris

We’ll never know why the Redskins abandoned the run in Week 1 when they were averaging a whopping 6.5 YPC. But according to reports from Redskins players, they’re confident the run game will be successful vs the Jags. It doesn’t take much analysis to see why it might be – the Redskins top -10 graded run-blocking unit matches up well with a Jaguars D that was 6th-worst vs the run in 2013. Anticipate Morris being the engine of the Redskins offense this week. He is a high-volume option as your #2 RB.

NFL Grind Down Page 3 – Page 4