NFL Grind Down: Week Two - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-14 12:20:24

Atlanta at Cincinnati

Atlanta Falcons						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5	48.5	21.75				-5	48.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	37.0	1	1	11		Offense	23.0	14	8	27
Defense	34.0	27	27	23		Defense	16.0	7	26	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati	18	11	26	30		Atlanta	17	32	20	20
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Jones	9	9.0				Green	9	9.0	13.3	10.0
White	7					Sanu	5	5.0	4.0	2.0
Douglas	7	7.0	8.3	9.0		Sanzenbacher			2.0	2.0
Toilolo	6					Eifert	3

Quick Grind

• Fire up all the Bengals play makers
• Falcons offense may be overlooked

Atlanta Falcons

QB Matt Ryan

I was wrong about Matt Ryan last week. Despite a horrid offensive line, Ryan made the Saints defense look silly en route to an NFL-leading 448 yards passing and 3 TDs Week 1. Five different receivers saw 6 or more targets. This week Ryan faces a Bengals defense that boasts a deep CB group and had the 4th-highest pass coverage grade on PFF in 2013. Even more worrisome than the secondary Ryan faces are the matchups his offensive line faces. Already exposed by injury, last week the Falcons OL lost their best remaining player in 1st-round OT Jake Matthews. Here’s what I wrote about the Falcons OL before Matthews injury:

“An added area of concern for the Falcons passing game all season is their offensive line. They finished 2013 with PFF’s 3rd-worst pass-blocking grade. In theory they improved the line this offseason with the 1st-round selection of OT Jake Matthews. However, the Falcons lost starting LT Sam Baker for the season, which shuffles Matthews to LT and forces Lamar Holmes, one of last year’s biggest OL disasters, back into the lineup at RT. Holmes had the 2nd-worst rating of all qualified OT last season, and was 3rd-worst in pass-blocking after allowing 10 sacks and the 2nd-most total pressures in the NFL in 2013.”

Now in addition to starting the abysmal Lamar Holmes, the Falcons will bookend him with Gabe Carimi, who allowed a sack, four hurries, and a whopping three penalties when he replaced Matthews last week. Matt Ryan will be running for his life, which limits his potential in this one. The Vegas line is encouraging, and the Falcons WRs should win on the outside – that gives Ryan legitimate upside in GPPs. But the likelihood of him also ending up on his backside for most of this game suggests you should be careful rostering him this week.

WR Julio Jones

Julio Jones looked healthy as ever last week, picking up yards in chunks and overcoming frequent CB-S combo coverage on his way to a 7-116 day. He looks matchup-proof as long as Matt Ryan survives behind the Falcons “offensive line”. Julio lines up as the LWR for the Falcons and will see coverage from ancient RCB Terrance Newman. Newman graded positively in pass coverage last season but had the Bengals worst coverage grade last week. Expect Julio to whip him regularly in this one. Julio is a top-10 WR option this week

WR Roddy White

A card-carrying member of this year’s Old Man Value club, White went for 5-72-1 last week in a performance that should have shocked no one. This week White will face Pacman Jones in coverage, a week after the Bengals CB allowed an 80 yard TD to Steve Smith. White is an acceptable #2 WR this week.

WR Devin Hester
Hester’s actual role as a receiver surprised many last week. The once-electric return man logged only 21 snaps in Week 1, but managed a 5-99 line thanks to Matt Ryan’s even pass distribution. The real reason I put him here is because the Falcons play outdoors this week, and 15/19 of Hester’s return TDs have come outdoors. There are crazier ideas than pairing Hester with the (admittedly terrible) Falcons defense when they play outdoors this year.

TE Levine Toilolo
From last week’s column: “Toilolo is a mountain of a TE at 6’8, 260, but he has a hard time moving that big body well enough to likely ever be a consistent option in the passing game. With Tony G gone the Falcons need to establish a new red-zone target, and it’ll be hard to miss the 6’8 Toilolo lumbering across the end-zone.”
Toilolo managed a TD last week, and even though he moves like an NBA center you can’t ignore the value of his size in the red-zone. He’s a punt TE option with the added bonus of being a fun name to yell when he scores.

RB Steven Jackson

The Falcons appear to be using the rare 4RB committee approach this season to both maximize the strengths of their individual RBs and limit the wear on starter Steven Jackson. Unfortunately that severely caps Jackson’s upside. Jackson only received 12 carries last week. That’s simply not enough volume to warrant rostering him against a strong Bengals run D.

Others

With Julio Jones healthy, Harry Douglas manned his usual slot role. He had a productive 6-69 Week 1 but will see top Bengals CB Leon Hall in coverage this week and should be avoided. The Falcons RBs beyond Steven Jackson – Jacquizz Rodgers, Antone Smith, and Devonta Freeman – will be a week-to-week crapshoot. Rodgers gets the most usage despite limited talent and is the best option if you must choose one.

Cincinnati Bengals

QB Andy Dalton

I don’t like Andy Dalton. But I do like QBs that face the Falcons this year. So while Dalton’s acceptable 308-1 line from Week 1 was completely bailed out by a 77-yard TD on busted coverage, he still makes for an excellent price play against a Falcons D that allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season, and was just carved up inside and out by Drew Brees and the Saints last week.

WR AJ Green

It seems like every week now, AJ Green is slipping behind the defense for a long gain or TD. Beyond his 77-yard TD, Green hauled in another 3 passes over 20 yards. He’s got an excellent chance to pick up yards in chunks again this week against a Falcons secondary that was beaten by receivers both large (Marques Colston) and small (Brandin Cooks) last week. This one’s easy: Green is a Top-3 option at WR this week.

WR Mohammed Sanu

Sanu has a few more weeks of potential relevance before Marvin Jones returns. Sanu is a versatile option for the Bengals, but unfortunately that versatility does not translate to either a particularly valuable floor or exceptional ceiling in DFS. But if there is a week to use Sanu, this is the week. He makes for an interesting source of exposure to the Bengals offense that will be much lower owned than AJ Green.

TE Jermaine Gresham

Primary receiving TE Tyler Eifert is out with an elbow injury this week, leaving us with blah option Jermaine Gresham. Gresham makes his money as a blocker, but does hold some value due to his potential as a red-zone target. Eifert’s injury will lead to a few extra targets, which could be profitable versus the Falcons.

RB Gio Bernard

If the Bengals coaches continue to use Gio Bernard as they did in Week 1, Bernard will be an elite option on full PPR sites. He won’t receive the carry volume of a traditional bell-cow back, but has the potential to make Forte/Charles-like contributions in the receiving game to boost his value. This week should be Bernard’s coming-out party, facing a Falcons defense that just gave up 13-60-2 on the ground to RB Mark Ingram and 6-58 through the air to RB Pierre Thomas. Bernard’s upside is a mixture of those lines. He is a clear #1 RB this week and isn’t priced like it.

RB Jeremy Hill

Hill escapes from the ‘Others’ section this week because… you guessed it… he’s facing the Falcons. He’s a GPP option based on his running style and the possibility that the Bengals coaching staff follows through on their comments about getting Hill more touches this week.

New Orleans at Cleveland

New Orleans Saints						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 1:00 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6.5	47.5	27				6.5	47.5	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	34.0	4	6	9		Offense	27.0	11	20	2
Defense	37.0	32	32	22		Defense	30.0	24	31	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland	21	30	28	4		New Orleans	32	27	32	14
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Colston	8	8.0	9.7	6.0		Hawkins	10	10.0	3.0	5.0
Stills			3.0	1.0		Austin	3	3.0	3.0	3.0
Cooks	8					Moore			2.7	7.0
Graham	10					Cameron	5

Quick Grind

• Let’s try this again: “Step 1: Roster Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham. Step 2: Profit”
• Key to the NO passing game is wherever CLE CB Joe Haden is NOT
• If the CLE offense can’t fight back early, expect healthy doses of the NO run game

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

Last week, PIT QB Ben Roethlisberger abused the entire CLE secondary (including Joe Haden) and racked up 365 passing yards. He completed 67.6% of his passes. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger. He also has a better receiving corps. Can we agree Brees is a top-3 QB this week and move on? Anticipate Brees being one of the highest owned QBs this week, especially in cash games.

A quick note on the Saints receivers vs the Browns secondary
The key to identifying the value in NO’s passing game is deciphering who Browns shutdown CB Joe Haden will be shadowing. Every other member of the Browns secondary is exploitable. The Browns were graded in the bottom-10 in pass coverage last season, and that was with Haden. If you take out Haden, the best coverage grade of any returning Browns player is a defensive lineman. This one could get ugly.
As of this writing it’s unclear who Haden might cover, but here are a few thoughts: 1) Haden has successfully shut down prototype WRs in the past, despite giving up a height advantage (i.e. AJ Green, 6’4), 2) Conversely, Haden has struggled against smaller WRs with agility and explosion (i.e. his arch-nemesis Antonio Brown). I think the Browns best chance of eliminating a Saints receiving threat based on Haden’s past success would suggest he’ll be shadowing Marques Colston. That leaves a rookie-rookie matchup of Brandin Cooks vs Week 1 burn victim Justin Gilmore, or 2013 even burnier burn victim Buster Skrine.

TE Jimmy Graham

Has there ever been a quieter 8-82 day out of a TE? Despite the Falcons throwing constant double-teams at Jimmy Graham, he still got his last week, just not to the degree we’ve come to expect. There has been talk that this week Graham’s likely primary cover man will be safety Donte Whitner. Whitner had been a longtime liability in coverage until his apparent renaissance as a 49er. I’m not buying it. The Browns will likely keep LB-S combo coverage on Graham most of the game, but he remains an elite option even in the face of double-teams.

WR Marques Colston

Colston flew under the radar this offseason as the Brandin Cooks hype reached critical levels, and last week he turned in a casual 5-110 line that has gone largely ignored as well. If he isn’t covered by Haden this week he makes for an excellent option. However without knowing Haden’s coverage I think Colston makes too great a risk for cash games this week.

WR Brandin Cooks

I love Brandin Cooks as a player, and especially as a player in this offense. Used in every conceivable way last week, Cooks had quite the rookie debut en route to a 7-77-1 line. Because of Cooks’ versatility, I don’t think the Browns can conceivably ask Haden to shadow him. If that hunch turns out to be correct, Cooks will either face rookie Justin Gilbert, who allowed 7-122 and a 118.8 QB rating last week, or Buster Skrine, who tied for an NFL-high 9 TDs allowed in 2013. Either way, Cooks makes for an explosive GPP option.

WR Kenny Stills

Be careful with Stills this week: although he’s currently listed as probable, his own comments made his playing status seem undetermined. His value as the Saints deep threat is equally compromised if he simply doesn’t trust his injured quad, or if he really is physically unable to fly downfield. There will always be GPP value with an effective deep threat like Stills, but we should be cautious plugging him in given his injury.

RB Mark Ingram / RB Pierre Thomas

An overlooked source of value this week could be a NO running game. #AngryIngram racked up a 13-60-2 line vs the garbage Falcons D, and looks poised to receive the majority of carries for the Saints going forward. This week Ingram faces a Browns defense that threw a coming-out party for Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell in Week 1, serving up 197 total yards and missing 11 tackles against him. If this game gets out of hand early as expected, Ingram should see a larger workload than usual, making him a sneaky #2 RB this week.
Pierre Thomas racked up 13 touches and 89 total yards last week, doing the majority of his damage through the air as usual (6-58). The Browns didn’t show any signs of being able to cover RBs in Week 1, as Le’Veon Bell racked up an 8-88 through the air against them. Thomas remains a high-floor option as your #2 RB or FLEX on full PPR sites.

Cleveland Browns

QB Brian Hoyer

Hoyer managed an acceptable game. He is almost guaranteed to have game flow working in his favor here, as the Vegas line suggests the Browns will be trailing but still rack up some points. For the Browns to have a chance, they will have to loosen the reins a bit on Hoyer and allow him to take risks downfield. However, although the Saints were abused by the pass last week, facing Brian Hoyer, Miles Austin, and Andrew Hawkins is an awfully softer task than facing Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones. I expect the Saints defense to show its true colors in this one, but the likelihood of Hoyer having a high volume of pass attempts makes him passable as a hail-mary GPP QB.

TE Jordan Cameron

Cameron is an extremely risky play this week, as his Week 1 shoulder injury caused him to miss practices Wed-Fr. Players rarely suit up in such cases. This game has a 1pm EST start, so you’ll know ahead of time if Cameron is a go, but I suggest you use that information not to decide whether to play Cameron, but to decide whether to upgrade Andrew Hawkins.

WR Andrew Hawkins

Baby Hawk led the Browns in targets last week, and makes for an intriguing option on full PPR sites, especially if Jordan Cameron is out. Another 10+ target week is almost guaranteed if the Browns are without Cameron. I have no issues with using him as your #3 WR this week.

WR Miles Austin

Austin is technically the Browns #1 WR. That should tell you everything you need to know about the Browns passing attack.

RB Terrance West / Isaiah Crowell
With starting RB Ben Tate defying the odds and not even managing to get through one full game without injury, rookie Terrance West gets the start this week. West managed 100 rushing yards in relief of Tate last week, and looks poised to be an excellent DFS option as a low-priced starting RB this week. Or does he? West popped up in nearly every DFS article this week, and projects to be one of the highest-owned RBs. After all, the Browns must rely on their running game to have any chance of success in this one, leading to more touches for West. Just don’t roster him thinking you’re setting yourself apart with a cheap RB – that’s what everyone is doing.
Crowell is more of a GPP-only play here. He is the better talent of the Browns healthy RB duo, and appears to have been anointed the Browns goal-line back as well. But there are just so many cheap RBs this week that taking a risk on Crowell isn’t necessary.

Others

If Jordan Cameron can’t play, it creates a fantasy wasteland at TE. Jim Dray is primarily a blocker. Gary Barnidge has intriguing athleticism for his size (6’6, 250), but has a career high of 242 yards in a season. If you must choose one, I suggest Barnidge.
The Browns WRs beyond Austin and Hawkins are Travis Benjamin and Taylor Gabriel. Benjamin is primarily a return man, while Gabriel is a 5’7, 170 lb UDFA. Gabriel did lead the Browns in receiving this preseason and had the second most targets last week with 6. I would consider him most likely to emerge as the third option in the Browns passing game with Cameron out.

New England at Minnesota

New England Patriots						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	49	26				3	49	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.0	16	18	14		Offense	34.0	4	30	3
Defense	33.0	26	6	23		Defense	6.0	1	20	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota	2	6	10	16		New England	10	28	5	7
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Edelman	8	8.0	13.7	11.0		Patterson	5	5.0	6.0	5.0
Amendola	5	5.0	6.7	3.0		Jennings	7	7.0	8.3	6.0
Dobson			3.5	3.0		Simpson			5.0	7.0
Gronkowski	11					Rudolph	4

Quick Grind

• With no AP for MIN, NE should roll (keep an eye on the Vegas line)
• Asiata expected to get majority of carries for MIN, but keep an eye on McKinnon
• No AP = more carries/touches for Cordarrelle Patterson?

New England Patriots

QB Tom Brady

I think Tom Brady is being overlooked in DFS this week. Yes, he missed an awful lot more throws than we’re used to seeing him miss. Yes, his offensive line caved easily against the Dolphins pass-rush. But this is the Vikings defense we’re talking about – a defense that had the 2nd-worst coverage grade on PFF last season, and allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per game. Aside from the addition of slot CB Captain Munnerlyn (yes, his first name is Captain), not much has changed about this unit. New head coach Mike Zimmer will likely have a positive effect, but the personnel are still exploitable. Brady’s price has absolutely plummeted on some sites (he’s the 17th-most expensive QB on DK for example), and is in a tremendous situation to pay off his salary and then some in a game Vegas is still projecting to be among the highest scoring of Week 2.

TE Rob Gronkowski

Gronk clearly isn’t 100%, but with the target share he’s receiving, he doesn’t need to be. He is an elite option against a Vikings team that allowed 13 TDs to TEs in 2013. He is an especially appealing option on sites where he is discounted relative to Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas.

WR Julian Edelman

After one week, Julian Edelman still appears to be a reliable option on full PPR sites, tallying a 6-95 line against the Dolphins. Be careful using him in this matchup against Captain Munnerlyn, who had one of the highest coverage grades of all slot CBs last season.
RB Shane Vereen

Vereen had a very Vereen Week 1, with 71 total yards and a TD on 12 touches (5 receptions). However his usage appears to be expanding, as he had three goal-line carries (one of which he converted for a TD). Vereen’s value is already exceptional on full PPR sites, but if he begins to reliably see goal-line work, there will be at least a few weeks in which he’ll have elite upside at a moderate cost on most sites. Against a defense that struggled against pass-catching RBs in 2013, Vereen makes for a rock solid
#2 RB option.

Others

There isn’t a reliable Patriots WR other than Edelman right now. For Brady to have a strong Week 2, one of Kenbrell Thompkins, Danny Amendola, or Aaron Dobson will have to step up. Thompkins finished with the 2nd most targets in Week 1, but failed to do much with them (5 catches for 37 yards). Amendola finished 3-16, and Dobson was inactive. Of the trio, Dobson has the most upside, but I would avoid them all until one emerges.

Minnesota Vikings

QB Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel is at his best when his pass attempts are limited, which is exactly the opposite of what we want in DFS. Cassel is likely going to be forced out of his comfort zone in this one, however, as Adrian Peterson’s deactivation removes much of the threat of the Vikings run game. Vegas suggests Cassel will have gameflow in his favor, but I don’t see a consistent matchup for him to exploit. Sure, Cassel’s production could be buoyed by a long Cordarrelle Patterson TD, but the Vikings passing attack could also be shut down completely by Revis and Co. I would avoid Cassel against his former team.

RB Matt Asiata

Adrian Peterson’s deactivation means the triumphant return of Matt “50 yards and 3TDs” Asiata. He should handle the majority of carries in Week 2 and will be min-priced everywhere. His limited athleticism limits his big-play upside, but volume is volume, and Asiata will be running behind 2013’s th-best run-blocking unit. We’ve seen Asiata convert this kind of volume into a huge fantasy day (once) before. Roster him and cross your fingers that the Vikings can keep the score close.

RB Jerick McKinnon

For a spirited discussion about the Vikings new #2 RB Jerick McKinnon, and whether or not he should be playing over Asiata, check out our NFL Experts Roundtable discussion at around the 10 minute mark.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

The X-Factor in the Adrian Peterson deactivation fallout is WR Cordarelle Patterson. We saw again what Patterson is capable of with the ball in his hands when he took a run-of-the-mill handoff for a 67 yard TD in Week 1. There’s some talk that Patterson will get an extra handful of carries without Peterson, as the Vikings find themselves even more desperate for big-play opportunities. Patterson represents the top risk/reward GPP play in Week 2 – he is the sole playmaker left on the Vikings offense (so his touches should increase), but he’s also likely to be the sole focus of a defense that is notorious for eliminating individual playmakers.

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings led the Vikings in targets in Week 1, but I fear he’s the likely victim of DarrelleRevis here. Unless Belichick switches course from Week 1, it seems like Revis will be used solely at LCB (presumably because ex-Seahawk Brandon Browner will man the RCB spot when he returns). This would allow the Vikings to ‘sacrifice’ a receiver to Revis’ coverage much like the Packers did with Jarrett Boykin vs Richard Sherman in Week 1. That receiver won’t be their prized chess piece Cordarelle Patterson; it will be Jennings. Avoid him this week.

TE Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph had a quiet Week 1 vs the Rams (2-16-1) but pulled in the all-important TD. Expect him to be 1st or 2nd in targets this week as Cassel tries to avoid throwing at Revis whenever possible. Rudolph’s always has a strong chance for a red-zone score, and makes for a solid mid-range TE play this week.

NFL Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3