NFL Grind Down: Wild Card Weekend

by ohnjz Last Updated 2015-01-07 15:54:08

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Arizona Cardinals						Carolina Panthers
Sat – 4:35 PM						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	38	16.25				-5.5	38	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.4	23	17	30		Offense	21.2	18	16	14
Defense	21.2	18	16	14		Defense	19.4	23	17	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	17	17	20	12		Arizona Cardinals	22	2	19	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	103	63	2	784		Benjamin	145	73	9	1008
Floyd	99	47	6	841		Cotchery	78	48	1	580
Brown	103	48	5	696		Brown	36	21	2	296
Carlson	54	33	1	350		Olsen	123	84	6	1008

Quick Grind

•Miserable sub-40 point Vegas line suggests limited fantasy goodness
•Avoid the Arizona Fightin’ Ryan Lindleys

Arizona Cardinals

Note: the Cardinals are by FAR the least attractive team to target this week. Cardinals players are sure to be low-owned in tournaments, but it’s for good reason. I would suggest looking elsewhere for your core players this week.

RB Kerwynn Williams

While I don’t recommend playing any Cardinals in cash games this week, there are a few theoretically viable tournament plays we can consider. The first is RB Kerwynn Williams. Williams has quietly emerged as the Cardinals top RB in the wake of Andre Ellington’s injury and has led the team in rushing three of the past four games. When Williams has been ‘the guy’, his workload has also been awfully stable, and he’s found success even against tough run defense squads:

While we often smashed RBs against the Panthers defense in the first half of the season, they haven’t allowed more than 100 rushing yards since Week 9, and haven’t allowed a single rushing TD since Week 10. I think Williams should again see at least 15 touches as the Cardinals look for balance (especially if they realize that Ryan Lindley should never be allowed to throw 40 passes in an NFL game), but the matchup certainly isn’t as inviting as it was earlier this season. Williams is best used as a tournament play for that reason.

WR Michael Floyd

Floyd came back from the dead last week to detonate the division rival 49ers for 8-153-2. That stat line is NOT a typo – and I’m as surprised as you are. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, at least we now know that Bruce Arians is insane enough to allow QB Ryan Lindley to throw it 40 times a game against a tough pass defense (49ers), with the same YOLO vertical attack that he’s employed with [Insert QB Name Here]. However, I’ve mentioned repeatedly in past weeks how effective the Panthers new tandem of outside CBs (Bene Benwikere & Josh Norman) have been, and after they limited Julio Jones last week (or rather, after the Panthers pass-rush pressure did), we’ve got even more evidence that we shouldn’t be aggressively targeting this secondary like we did earlier in the season. But if you must take a Cardinals WR, I think Floyd is pretty clearly the guy you want to own.

QB Ryan Lindley

Yes, Ryan Lindley threw for 316 yards and 2 TDs against a tough 49ers team last week. But he also threw 3 INTs, which should have been about 5 or 6. The 2 TDs were also the first of his career. His high volume of attempts the past two weeks are more valuable to us as an indication that a Cardinals WR could meet value, rather than evidence we should be rostering Lindley himself. With the way the Panthers defense is playing, I wouldn’t get cute with Lindley here. Roster the Panthers defense instead.

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton

I thought Newton would be in for a massive game last week against the Falcons, and it sure looked like he was on his way… but the Panthers quickly turned the game into a stomp, and Cam simply didn’t need to do more than his 10/16 for 114 and 1 TD through the air and 6-51-1 on the ground. I think we’ll see a lot more from Cam this week, as he faces a real NFL defense that has been one of the league’s best all season. However, they do have one weakness – the mobile QB. GPP Hero Russell Wilson undressed the Cardinals for over 400 total yards and 3 TDs in Week 16, including 6-88-1 on the ground (and 10-73 on the ground in Week 12). Wilson’s rushing success is a little different in that most of his yardage in Week 16 came on scrambles, whereas Cam sees more designed runs. But I think the opportunity for Cam to scramble is much higher in this game based on the defensive scheme of the Cardinals. This is in addition to an already obnoxious usage rate in the last 3 games Cam has seen a full workload, where he’s combined 30+ pass attempts with at least 9 rushes in each. I think a lot of people will avoid Cam because of the miserable Vegas line and tough matchup – but he’s a high ceiling play that shouldn’t be overlooked in tournaments.

TE Greg Olsen

After being one of our top sneaky targets all season, Olsen finally breaks free as the top option. He’s the Elite TE in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on Rotoworld:

“In a week where there’s no Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham to soak up the spotlight, at long last, Greg Olsen gets his chance to shine. Olsen has sneakily been an excellent alternative to the two ‘stud’ TEs all season, offering a consistently high floor to go with the occasional top overall TE ceiling. And now Olsen draws a matchup with the Cardinals, who allow the MOST yards per game and the 5th-most FPPG. Their average line allowed to opposing TEs is 5.3 receptions, 67.8 yards, and .5 TDs. That’s an unbeatable floor, which reinforces Olsen as the top overall TE this week.”

RB Jonathan Stewart

Last week Stewart – one of the hottest RBs on the planet – faced the single MOST favorable RB matchup in the NFL; so, naturally he compiled just 69 total yards. Don’t let the box score fool you though, the game was out of hand shortly after the National Anthem was finished, and J-Stew looked GREAT as usual. Keep in mind that Panthers HC Ron Rivera has said that fellow RB DeAngelo Williams is ‘ready to roll’ this week, which means… well, I’m not exactly sure what that means, but we should expect D-Will to at least siphon a few carries from Stewart this week. Don’t let that, OR the Cardinals seasonal DVP fully dissuade you from rostering Stewart this week though. I’ve preached all season about how the Cardinals defensive injuries should lead to them leaking in run defense, and it’s finally been coming to fruition over the regular season’s final weeks: after not allowing 100+ yards for the first 12 weeks of the season, the Cardinals have allowed 100 or more rushing yards in FOUR of their last five games. That includes a preposterous 179 and 143 rushing yards allowed in their last two games, respectively. It’s a risky play based on how the Cardinals D has performed over the entire season, but based on the past 5 games I think Stewart could be an awfully sneaky tournament RB.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Benjamin is a little bit of a tough sell this week considering his struggles in Week 17 and the impending matchup with the Cardinals rugged press coverage. But most people will be avoiding him for exactly that reason. There’s always upside with Benjamin due to his target volume and TD potential, and he’ll be awfully contrarian in tournaments.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sat – 8:15 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	46.5	21.75				-3	46.5	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.6	8	13	5		Offense	27.3	7	4	20
Defense	27.3	7	4	20		Defense	25.6	8	13	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	27	13	22	21		Baltimore Ravens	15	1	28	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	92	49	11	767		Brown	181	129	13	1698
Smith						Bryant	48	26	8	549
Brown	31	24	0	255		Wheaton	86	53	2	644
Daniels	78	48	4	527		Miller	91	66	3	761

Quick Grind

•Keep an eye on the weather: it could limit both passing attacks
•If the weather checks out, both secondaries are awfully weak…
•Injury Update: Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell is OUT

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Reports of Forsett being worn down are awfully clueless to the game scripts and matchup problems the Ravens had faced in recent weeks. I surprisingly found myself one of the only people recommending Forsett as an excellent bounceback candidate against a limp Browns run defense last week, and Forsett predictably responded with a spry-looking 136 total yards on 19 touches. The truth is that Forsett looks the same as he did during his scorching stretch earlier in the season – it’s simply injuries across the offensive line and bizarre game scripts that have limited both his touches and ‘effectiveness’ of late. It’ll be interesting to see how effective Forsett and the Ravens somewhat patchwork offensive line can be against the Steelers, who allow just 84.6 rushing yards per game (7th-fewest) and have allowed 100+ rushing yards in just two games over 2014’s second half. I think the Ravens will look to grind Forsett over 20 touches as they had throughout their hot-running stretch in the middle of the season, especially if the weather limits Joe Flacco’s passing. If you’re looking for an alternative to top plays like DeMarco Murray or Jeremy Hill, Forsett could be a sneaky option.

Too Many Smiths

Yes, the header is a reference to this.

Though they aren’t top options this week, both Torrey and Steve Smith make strong tournament plays based on their matchup with a Steelers secondary that seems to fall asleep often in coverage. I prefer Torrey Smith based both on his perpetual big-play ability and recent performance (5-59-2 & 4-83-1 last 2 games), but Steve has shown signs of life over the past month (at least 5 receptions in each of the last 4 games).

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

After you’re done marveling at the completely ridiculous things Antonio Brown did in the regular season, scope out my take on Brown as the week’s top WR in the Rotoworld WR/TE Grind Down:

“Antonio Brown is arguably the top WR to stack with one of the top QB’s from STLCardinals84’s QB/RB Grind Down. Readers of mine at RotoGrinders are plenty familiar with my Antonio Brown love affair in DFS, but allow me to list just a few reasons why the Steelers stud WR is both an excellent DFS option and 2014’s top WR. Brown is the quintessential high-floor DFS play, with NINE games of at least 8 receptions, and TWELVE games of at least 90 receiving yards. Like a high CEILING to go with your high floor? Brown is your guy: he’s had EIGHT games with at least 1 TD, and a crazy FOUR games with at least 2 TDs. Dude is just unreal. This week Brown’s high-floor/high-ceiling freak show faces the Ravens, whom Brown has already undressed for a combined 18-234-1 over their two 2014 regular season meetings. That includes an 11-144-1 shredding in Week 9. The scary part is that since Brown has faced these Ravens, they’ve gotten progressively worse against the pass, as injuries have decimated a unit that was among the NFL’s strongest earlier in the season. Now instead of stud shutdown corner Jimmy Smith, Brown will see coverage from players like Rashaan Melvin and Anthony Levine, whom you’ve never heard of because they aren’t any good. If you’re only paying up for one WR this week, make it Brown – he could go absolutely berserk against this wimpy Ravens secondary.”

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben finished the 2014 regular season the way he started – with a 300+ yard performance, his NINTH of the season and 4th in his past 5 games. With RB Le’Veon Bell already ruled OUT for this week, I see little chance that Ben doesn’t crack the 300 yard barrier yet again against the Ravens. Anybody remember what Ben did the LAST time he faced the Ravens? Yeah, he only bombed them for 340 yards and SIX touchdowns. And as I mentioned above in the Brown analysis, the Ravens defense has only gotten worse. Ben has immense upside in this matchup.

WR Martavis Bryant

If you’re looking for a cheap, high-upside WR play – Martavis Bryant could be your guy this week. He was the featured Bargain Bin Baller in the WR/TE Grind Down on Rotoworld:

“Bryant offers tantalizing upside at a modest price this week. Unfortunately, he also offers a pretty pathetic floor. When the Roethlisberger-Bryant deep ball connection is on, we get performances like Week 10 vs the Jets (4-143-1), and Week 14 vs the Bengals (4-109-1). But when it’s off, or simply isn’t needed, we can often be left with performances like Week 13 vs the Saints (1-23), or Week 17 vs the Bengals (1-21). It’s maddeningly difficult to predict what version of Bryant we’ll get on a weekly basis, but his ceiling is undeniable, and the paper-thin Ravens secondary will be no match for Bryant’s obnoxious size/speed combination.”

The Steelers RB Situation

Without Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers rushing attack goes from being spearheaded by an elite All-Pro, to being ‘led’ by something named Josh Harris. Harris is an undrafted free agent that has seen all of nine touches across the five games he’s appeared in this season. It’s a massive, massive drop off (early frontrunner for understatement of the year). Harris will likely have his already limited opportunities further capped by the presence of fellow rookie Dri Archer on passing downs, and possibly even Browns/Vikings castoff and recent signee Ben Tate. And of course we also need to consider the massive, run-stuffing elephant in the room: the Ravens defense. There’s always value in the salary relief that a replacement player like Josh Harris can offer… but his floor and ceiling production is capped by the matchup with the defense allowing the FEWEST FPPG to opposing RBs.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2