NFL Grind Down: Wildcard Weekend - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2015-01-04 04:33:27

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati Bengals						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:05 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	49	22.75				-3.5	49	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.8	15	28	3		Offense	28.6	6	1	24
Defense	28.6	6	1	24		Defense	22.8	15	28	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	13	21	2	26		Cincinnati Bengals	4	27	6	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	116	69	6	1041		Hilton	132	82	7	1345
Sanu	99	57	5	790		Wayne	117	64	2	779
Tate	26	17	1	193		Moncrief	49	32	3	444
Gresham	80	62	5	460		Fleener	91	51	8	774

Quick Grind

•Second-highest Vegas total
•Target the Bengals running game
•Injury Update: Bengals WR AJ Green is DOUBTFUL this week

Cincinnati Bengals

RB Jeremy Hill

It says a lot that Hill’s 110 yards on 25 touches last week can be viewed as a disappointment. He is a massive talent and can smash basically any defense so long as his occasionally clueless team continues to feed him the ball. The question is whether he’ll be fed enough against the limp Colts run defense. I’m contractually obligated to always mention Jonas Gray’s 200+ yard, 4 TD demolition from Week 11 when talking about the Colts run D (#NeverForget), but they’ve also given up 99 or more rushing yards in each of the last 4 games as well. That includes somehow allowing the hopeless Titans to run for 114 yards last week. We don’t need much more analysis here – Hill is arguably the top RB of the week factoring in price, and will likely be the most popular for that reason.

WR Mo Sanu

Editor’s Note: Mohamed Sanu gets a boost with AJ Green (concussion) now ruled out.

Sanu could be a strong value if AJ Green doesn’t play. I talked about him further in the Rotoworld WR/TE Grind Down:

“This pick is contingent on WR AJ Green being OUT this week (Green is currently Doubtful). And even then, it takes a leap of faith to roster a guy who hasn’t had more than ONE catch in any of his last 3 games. But let’s not forget how great Sanu was when Green was hurt earlier this year – he was basically unstoppable when force-fed the volume of targets befitting a #1 WR. The other worry here is the lockdown coverage of Colts CB Vontae Davis, but most people are overlooking the fact that Davis only plays on half of the field; the Bengals can scheme Sanu away from Davis if they want to. If Green sits, the sheer volume of targets that Sanu should see will make him a strong value at his increasingly depressed price point.”

Adam Levitan further sums up Mo Sanu’s opportunity with AJ Green out in the tweet below:

RB Gio Bernard

It’s worth noting that Gio has basically been performing like a #2 WR over the last few weeks, with 5-45-1 against Denver in Week 16 and 7-56-1 last week against the Steelers. He’s a full PPR option that few will choose to use their RB slot on.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

We talk often about how good the Bengals pass defense is, but although they’ve forced 7 INTs over their past 4 games, they’ve also allowed 7 TDs, and 300+ passing yards in 3 of those 4 games. Prior to that stretch, the last 300+ yard passer the Bengals allowed was way back in Week 7. That passer’s name? Andrew Luck. Luck carved the Bengals for 344 yards and 2 TDs, but has a banged up and worn down set of weapons this time around. TY Hilton has a bum hammy, Dwayne Allen has been missing time (but will play), and Reggie Wayne looks like he needs a Tim Duncan-esque ‘DNP-Old’ to recharge. That said, it’s hard to not consider Luck the top QB this week. He’ll cost you the most salary, but he’s also the most reliable option in this slate.

WR TY Hilton

Hilton is somebody that not many people are talking about. Here’s my take:

“If you want to take on a little risk in order to differentiate yourself in a tournament, I doubt many will be looking to TY Hilton after he saw just three targets and played only one half in Week 17. We shouldn’t overlook the fact that Hilton broke out for 82-1345-7 this season; nor should we forget that Hilton bombed these same Bengals for 7-109 back in Week 7. He’s basically uncoverable when healthy. If Hilton is finally able to push his balky hamstring again, he could have a massive day against the Bengals.”

TE Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen

With Dwayne Allen practicing in full, we go back to the Fleener/Allen TE split that caps both players’ upside. If you’re targeting a Colts TE, Fleener is your best bet for more receptions and yards, whereas Allen is the TD machine. I prefer to just pay up for Greg Olsen.

RB BOOM Herron

Herron is arguably the top value option this week. He’s a value for good reason though, racking up 60 or more rushing yards in just 1 of his last 4 games – though he has contributed at least 3 catches and 31 yards in the receiving game in 3 of the last 4 as well. Beyond the massive savings, Herron also draws one of the top RB matchups of the week against a Bengals squad that grades out as the 10th-worst run defense unit on Pro Football Focus, and allowed the 4th-most FPPG to RBs in the regular season. While his workload isn’t massive, if you need salary relief this week, Herron is an excellent choice.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Detroit Lions						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 4:40 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	48	20.5				-7	48	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.1	21	15	25		Offense	29.2	5	7	2
Defense	29.2	5	7	2		Defense	20.1	21	15	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	19	16	5	32		Detroit Lions	5	3	11	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	129	71	8	1077		Bryant	136	88	16	1320
Tate	142	99	4	1331		Williams	65	37	8	621
Ross	35	24	1	314		Beasley	49	37	4	420
Pettigrew	15	10	0	70		Witten	90	64	5	703

Quick Grind

•Top Vegas total
•Closest game to a Gary Oldman Seal of Approval (i.e. Play Everyone!)
•Calvin Johnson should devour Cowboys CB Brandon Carr

Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson

Another week, another simple disclaimer: you don’t need analysis to justify rostering Calvin Johnson. But hey, there’s only 4 games this week, so we might as well check in on one of our favorite CBs to abuse in DFS – Brandon Carr. Carr is in the bottom-10 of CBs in terms of yards allowed (849; 7th-most), TDs allowed (6; t-9th-most), and QB Rating allowed (116.6; t-9th-most). He sucks. Roster Calvin Johnson.

RB Joique Bell

I don’t know what the Lions coaches are thinking, but after Bell was one of the NFL’s most effective RBs between Week 11 and Week 15, he’s now seen 15 or less touches in each of the last two games. Maybe they were just ‘saving’ him for the playoffs a bit, but the flux in work is definitely a cause for concern. The Cowboys have made an awful lot of RBs look awfully efficient this season, but I would only target Bell if you’re trying to differentiate yourself in a tournament.

QB Matt Stafford

Stafford turned around another late-season meltdown last week with 217 yards and 3 TDs against the Packers, but was awfully erratic en route to that somewhat productive box score. I’m ambivalent to Stafford’s prospects this week, as even though the Cowboys allow the 11th-most FPPG to QBs, their ball-control offense often limits the upside of the opposing offensive players. He’s always got a high-ceiling thanks to the existence of Calvin Johnson and emergence of Golden Tate, but I would prefer to target him only in Lions tournament stacks this week.

WR Golden Tate

As usual, Tate is viable given the theory that teams will sell out to stop Calvin Johnson.

TE Eric Ebron

Ebron is a YOLO matchup play against a Cowboys squad allowing the MOST FPPG to opposing TEs.

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

Murray is a polarizing player to consider this week. On one hand, no RB is a surer bet to see heavy volume. On the other hand, that volume comes against the team allowing the FEWEST rushing yards per game to RBs. The Lions have allowed just TWO performances over 100 yards… but the biggest of those came against the Packers just last week. Murray has cracked open top run defenses this season, with 146-1 against the Seahawks in Week 6 being the most prominent example. While Jeremy Hill is arguably the best RB play with price considered, Murray remains a top-tier option and will be central to the Cowboys’ gameplan as usual.

WR Dez Bryant

Bryant has essentially reached Calvin Johnson status in that we don’t really need to analyze much to justify playing him. He does draw a tougher matchup on paper in outside CBs Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis, but do you really care? Bryant has 6 TDs and nearly 300 yards in his last 3 games, and is basically matchup proof. He’s an excellent tournament pivot from Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson.

QB Tony Romo

Here’s a trivia question for you: which QB has the highest QB Rating this season? Technically, it’s Ryan Nassib, but he only has 5 attempts. But after Nassib, it’s Romo, who has a higher QB Rating than Aaron Rodgers. Romo’s continued efficiency makes him a definite consideration this week, as does the fact that the Cowboys might be slowed on the ground by the Lions stout run defense. I would put Romo a tier below the top options this week.

TE Jason Witten

I suggested Witten as a value TE option in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on Rotoworld:

“I’m not in love with any value TEs this season, but there are a few viable alternatives if you don’t want to pay up for Greg Olsen. One of the top alternatives is Jason Witten, who has turned around a disappointing 2014 (from a receiving standpoint) to post lines of 7-69, 7-90-1, and 4-49 over the Cowboys last 3 games. While the Lions are middle-of-the-pack in terms of FPPG allowed, they’re actually allowing the same number of receptions per game as the Cardinals (t4th-most, and a reason why I suggested Greg Olsen above). It’s not an ideal play, but if Olsen is held to his floor this week, Witten could get you the same production and also provide $1000 of salary relief.”

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me @ohnjz, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!