NFL Pick'em Pool Week 16 Confidence Rankings and Picks (2021)
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. We regressed slightly in Week 4 due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but rebounded for a strong 13-3 outing, including hitting each of our top 10 confidence plays in Week 5. We stayed hot with a 9-5 record in Week 6 and a 10-3 showing in Week 7. We had a disappointing 8-7 showing in Week 8. Despite three major upsets in Week 9, we still managed to post a 9-5 record. In Week 10, we finally had our first losing week, owing to the fact that there were a number of late-week injury reports that went against our Thursday expectations. In Week 11, we returned to having a winning week, even though late-week injuries continue to be a problem late in the season. In Week 12, we once again were burned by some late-week injury news in Dallas and Los Angeles, but still managed to hit successfully on five of our top six confidence plays. Better health around the league in Week 13 resulted in a strong 11-3 showing. We stayed hot in Week 14, delivering a 12-2 result, before following up with an 11-5 record in Week 15.
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on the classic style.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 16 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
Week 16 Selections
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. New England Patriots
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Arizona Cardinals
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. Denver Broncos
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Miami Dolphins
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Atlanta Falcons
15. Tennessee Titans
16. New York Jets
Packers (vs. Browns)
Green Bay’s offensive line remains somewhat of an issue, but as long as this offense has Aaron Rodgers under center and DaVante Adams out-wide, this is a unit in good shape. Factor in that Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have settled into a dominant running back duo and there are few concerns when it comes to putting points on the board. Billy Turner is the only potential notable absence for the Packers in Week 16. The Cleveland Browns are returning a number of players from the COVID-reserve list, but this is still a group dealing with a large number of absences. Even if the majority of Cleveland’s roster suits up on Sunday, missed practice time is going to make it difficult to go to a hostile environment on short rest to secure a win. Take the Packers here.
Eagles (vs. Giants)
From a betting perspective, one of the most frustrating games to watch this season was when the Eagles played the New York Giants in Week 12. Philadelphia outgained New York 332-to-264, but committed four inexplicable turnovers, three of which came through the air, on a day in which the Eagles averaged an astounding 6.3 yards-per-carry. If not for inept coaching, the Eagles would have won that game with relative ease. In the rematch, New York will be without Daniel Jones at quarterback. Philadelphia has seemingly realized that they have one of the best running attacks in the league after consecutive dominant wins over the New York Jets and Washington Football Team. If the Eagles coaching staff can stay out of the way, this should be a rout in favor of Philadelphia.
Chargers (vs. Texans)
The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent in 2021, considering the bevy of talented players on this roster. Still, the important part of the previous sentence is that this roster has a bevy of talented players–something that cannot be said of the Houston Texans. Justin Herbert struggled last week against an emerging Kansas City Chiefs pass defense, but has been otherwise excellent in recent weeks. On the season, Herbert ranks 4th in passing yards, 3rd in passing touchdowns, and 2nd in QBR. If he can limit the turnovers in this one, Los Angeles could be in for a big day on the offensive side of the ball. It is doubtful that Davis Mills and company will be able to repeat their 30-point performance from a week ago against a real NFL-caliber team. The Chargers should roll in this one.
Patriots (vs. Bills)
When these two teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 13, Bill Belichick ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards. Mac Jones attempted only three total passes for the game. Josh Allen was held to 145 passing yards and a 20.1 QBR. In the rematch, the weather is unlikely to be nearly as hostile, but Buffalo will certainly find it difficult to go to Foxborough and walk away with a victory. From a psychological perspective, New England essentially defeated Buffalo with half of their offensive capabilities earlier this month. The Patriots are in a far better position to win this contest, playing at home with a better head coach and a better defense.
Cowboys (vs. Football Team)
Dallas lost to the defending Super Bowl Champions on opening night of the NFL season. They lost to the defending AFC Champions in Week 11, and suffered a tough overtime loss on Thanksgiving–a game in which they lost numerous coaches shortly before kickoff due to a COVID-19 outbreak. Other than a Week 9 loss to the Denver Broncos, Dallas has easily handled inferior opponents on their schedule. Bettors should expect more of the same in Week 16 when the Cowboys host the Washington Football Team, who they easily handled in Week 14 on the road. In the rematch, Washington is dealing with a number of key injuries and the demoralization of seeing their playoff hopes quickly fade. The Cowboys have an opportunity to deliver a kill shot on Sunday. This should be an uneventful funeral for the Football Team.
Image Credit: Imagn