NFL Pick'em Pool Week 17 Confidence Rankings and Picks (2021)
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. We regressed slightly in Week 4 due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but rebounded for a strong 13-3 outing, including hitting each of our top 10 confidence plays in Week 5. We stayed hot with a 9-5 record in Week 6 and a 10-3 showing in Week 7. We had a disappointing 8-7 showing in Week 8. Despite three major upsets in Week 9, we still managed to post a 9-5 record. In Week 10, we finally had our first losing week, owing to the fact that there were a number of late-week injury reports that went against our Thursday expectations. In Week 11, we returned to having a winning week, even though late-week injuries continue to be a problem late in the season. In Week 12, we once again were burned by some late-week injury news in Dallas and Los Angeles, but still managed to hit successfully on five of our top six confidence plays. Better health around the league in Week 13 resulted in a strong 11-3 showing. We stayed hot in Week 14, delivering a 12-2 result. In Week 15 and Week 16, we delivered back-to-back 11-win performances! We will hope for good fortune on the injury report once again with our Week 17 analysis for NFL Pick’em below!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we’ll focus on confidence rankings. I’ll begin by listing each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 17 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
Week 17 Selections
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New England Patriots
4. Los Angeles Chargers
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Tennessee Titans
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. San Francisco 49ers
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. New Orleans Saints
15. Chicago Bears
16. Seattle Seahawks
Packers (vs. Vikings)
Green Bay was our top selection in Week 16, which worked out nicely. We see no reason to demote them after Friday’s news that Kirk Cousins will be out for this contest after testing positive for COVID-19. When the starting quarterback matchup is Aaron Rodgers versus either rookie Kellen Mond or Kyle Sloter, who was signed this week–there is not much else that bettors need to think about. The Packers are still without Billy Turner and David Bakhtiari, but that is unlikely to derail the offense enough to put the outcome of this game in question. Green Bay is a strong play here.
Bills (vs. Falcons)
Buffalo went from the favorite to win the AFC to a threat to miss the playoffs during a terrible stretch from Week 9 to Week 14. Back-to-back convincing wins over the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots should be enough for bettors to trust this team again. Josh Allen has been playing much better football in recent weeks, totaling 9 touchdowns against only two interceptions in his last four games. The Atlanta Falcons have little talent on either side of the ball, and stand little-to-no chance of keeping up with Buffalo in this one. These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Do not overthink things here–take the Bills.
Patriots (vs. Jaguars)
New England is dealing with a number of notable injuries heading into Week 17. We saw their injuries have a tangible impact on the field in an embarrassing Week 16 loss to the Buffalo Bills at home. Still, the Patriots possess one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Even with Mac Jones recent underwhelming performances, New England still has the better quarterback in this matchup as well. Jacksonville is a two-touchdown underdog for a reason. Similar to the other heavy favorites this week, there is little reason to explore the possibility of a surprising upset.
Chargers (vs. Broncos)
Earlier this week, the Chargers were 5.5 point favorites on the spread. As the week has progressed, we have seen tremendous line movement in favor of Los Angeles–to the point that they are now favored by greater than a touchdown. Part of the reason for this is the final injury report. Only linebacker Drue Tranquill is listed as doubtful for the Chargers. The Denver Broncos have a laundry list of potential absences with Ronald Darby, Kareem Jackson, Kenny Young, Melvin Gordon III, Shelby Harris, Dre’Mont Jones, Shamar Stephen Javonte Williams, and Courtland Sutton each carrying a questionable tag into the weekend. This is not a tough spot for Denver to travel on the road to face a tough division opponent. The Chargers should roll in this one.
Eagles (vs. Football Team)
The Miles Sanders injury seemed to cause some line movement early in the week in favor of the Washington Football Team. However, as we have approached the weekend, we have seen the line swing a full point back in favor of the Eagles–and for good reason. Philadelphia possesses one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which should enable them to run the ball effectively, regardless of who is in the backfield handling the majority of the rushing attempts. Washington has struggled mightily this season, and recent injuries on the defensive side of the ball have only made it less likely that this team puts together competitive performances down the stretch of the season. Philadelphia is fighting for a playoff spot, and Washington is looking forward to the off-season. Expect the Eagles to fly this Sunday.
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