NFL Player Props for Rams vs. Falcons MNF (12/29)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Rams vs. Falcons. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
The final regular season edition of Monday Night Football in 2025 will feature MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford and the Rams against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN.
Stafford and the Rams enter play with the 2nd-best point differential in the entire NFL and have won 8 of their last 10 games. However, they are dealing with some significant injuries to key players and will be on the road for their second consecutive game – not an easy scheduling assignment, even for the most talented of teams.
The Falcons have already been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention but have played well since Cousins took over as the team’s starter, winning 3 of his 5 starts.
Nevertheless, looking at the NFL odds for tonight, the market is expecting a relatively easy victory for the Rams, pricing them as 7.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Rams vs. Falcons!
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Best NFL Player Props for Rams vs. Falcons
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Monday, December 29th:
- Kyren Williams Over/Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
- Matthew Stafford Over/Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Matthew Stafford Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions
Kyren Williams UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards (+100, bet365)
Simply, there isn’t much justification for Williams’ rushing prop being 20 yards higher than that of Blake Corum. Since Week 14, Williams has only a 59% snap share, with close to a 50-50 split with Corum on red-zone and goal-line opportunities.
Atlanta’s run defense hasn’t been particularly good during the second half of the season, but this is still a high number for a player who doesn’t have a clear-cut handle on RB1 duties for his team – especially when that team is playing on the road in a primetime game.
Matthew Stafford UNDER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-175, BetMGM)
Stafford and the prolific Rams offense has made it seem as though passing touchdowns are easy at times this season, but it’s still quite rare that we see a road quarterback with an over/under of 2.5 passing touchdowns for a single game. Stafford has thrown 3+ touchdowns in 8 of his last 12 games, but that is an exceedingly rare feat. It’s also worth noting that Davante Adams, who is the team’s top red-zone threat, was available for the vast majority of those games.
Stafford could play well tonight and still stay under this number. He could, of course, also not have his best game. There are a number of different pathways that lead to 2 or fewer touchdown passes for Stafford.
Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+132, FanDuel)
From Week 9 to Week 12, Stafford had a perfect 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with only 1 charted turnover-worthy play on 149 pass attempts (0.7%), per PFF.
Stafford has regressed in that area a little bit during the last month, with a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate since Week 13 – ranking 18th out of 28 qualified quarterbacks in that span. For the sake of comparison, rookie Shedeur Sanders also has a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate since Week 13.
Turnovers are often random and don’t have much predictive validity on a week-to-week basis, but this is decent expected value in a matchup against an Atlanta defense that has generated their fair share of turnovers this season.
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