NFL Player Props for Patriots vs. Bills SNF (10/5)
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday Night Football from Joshua Palmer, Jackson Hawes, and Josh Allen? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Patriots vs. Bills on October 5th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature Drake Maye and the Patriots against Josh Allen and the Bills in an AFC East showdown. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
New England is fresh off of their best win of the season, defeating Carolina 42-13. Following a Philadelphia loss earlier this afternoon, Buffalo is the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL early in the 2025 season.
Looking at the NFL Weather ahead of kickoff, there don’t appear to be any significant elements that figure to impact the game. We should get to see both of these teams in clean playing conditions.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Patriots vs. Bills!
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Best NFL Player Props for Patriots vs. Bills
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 5th:
- Joshua Palmer Over/Under 16.5 Receiving Yards
- Jackson Hawes Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
- Josh Allen Over/Under 225.5 Passing Yards
Joshua Palmer OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
BET365This line is likely a reflection of Palmer seeing a declining snap share each week so far in 2025. That being said, he was only on the field for 15 snaps in Week 4, but he still managed a pair of receptions for 25 receiving yards. Tonight, he’s unlikely to draw many snaps against New England’s top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez.
Palmer is capable of going over this number with only 1 catch. If the coaching staff decides that his skill set works well in this matchup, he could clear this line easily with increased playing time.
Jackson Hawes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1500, ESPN BET)
Hawes is quietly looking more and more like Buffalo’s favorite option at the tight end position. In Week 4, he was used in some single tight end sets and had 31 total offensive snaps compared to only 23 for Dawson Knox and 22 for Dalton Kincaid. There is a reason that Hawes, who has only 4 receptions this year, is priced at such long odds to score this evening. Yet it’s hard to dispute that this is good value against a team that has been vulnerable against opposing tight ends early in 2025.
Josh Allen OVER 225.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Allen is really good – like really good. Through 4 weeks this season, he’s yet to have a game with worse than 0.279 EPA/play. He’s already had a pair of games with a success rate north of 50%. Allen is capable of throwing the ball deep, making good decisions underneath, and everything in between.
New England’s pass defense looked better in Week 4 with CB Christian Gonzalez back on the field. Still, this doesn’t project to be an elite secondary unit. It wouldn’t be surprising if Allen has a big day through the air, especially if the game script remains competitive against a divisional foe.
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