NFL Player Props for Texans vs. Chiefs SNF (12/7)
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defense/special teams? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Texans vs. Chiefs on December 7th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Following an exciting prime-time game on Thursday, NFL fans should be in for another entertaining matchup on Sunday Night Football, with the Texans vs. Chiefs shaping up to have a playoff-like atmosphere. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Entering play, Houston has won 4 consecutive games to reinsert themselves into the playoff conversation in the AFC. A big reason for their success has been improved offensive line play – they rank 2nd in pressure% allowed since Week 8.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has lost 3 of their last 4 contests and will see their postseason hopes plummet to nearly zero if they can’t manage to defend their home field this evening. They have a tough task in front of them after LT Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve earlier this week.
Still, when a team has Patrick Mahomes under center, it’s difficult to completely count them out. Looking at the NFL Odds for Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs are favored by 4.5 points on the spread, with the market anticipating them doing enough to keep their season alive for at least one more week.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Texans vs. Chiefs!
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Best NFL Player Props for Texans vs. Chiefs
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, December 7th:
- Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 22.5 Completions
- Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
- Kansas City Defense/Special Teams Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 22.5 Completions (-119, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSMahomes has cleared this number in each of his last 3 games, but he’s done so while completing at least 63% of his passes in each of those contests. The Texans haven’t allowed a single quarterback to have better than a .128 EPA/play against them in 2025. Only 2 quarterbacks have managed better than a 50% success rate against the Texans defense this fall.
If the Chiefs are fortunate to be playing with a lead on Sunday, they are likely to grind as much time off of the clock as possible with their run game. This might not end up being a great box score game for Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+525, BetMGM)
BETMGMIf the Chiefs are going to keep their season alive, it’s probably going to take a heroic performance from Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City will be down multiple starters on the offensive line on Sunday against one of the league’s best defenses. Traditional play calling and ways of generating offense might not yield great results.
However, we have seen Mahomes extend plays with his legs in 2025, and he might need more of that magic tonight with Kansas City’s playoff hopes essentially hanging in the balance. Don’t be surprised if he takes matters into his own hands.
Kansas City Defense/Special Teams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+700, BetMGM)
BETMGMKansas City is down some key foundational pieces in their offense for Week 14, which means they likely will need to get creative in how they put points on the board this evening.
C.J. Stroud is no stranger to making poor decisions. He ranks 21st out of 28 quarterbacks (min. 265 dropbacks) this year in turnover-worthy throw rate. Playing on the road in a hostile environment is not a context that figures to make his life any easier.
Houston also hasn’t been particularly good on special teams this year, ranking only 18th in DVOA through 13 weeks. Given the new kickoff rules, which make long returns more likely than in past seasons, it’s likely worthwhile to include that part of the game in this wager. Be mindful to avoid FanDuel – which has Kansas City’s defense (not including special teams) priced at +1100 to score a touchdown.
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