NFL Player Props for Steelers vs. Browns TNF (10/1)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday Night Football from Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Steelers vs. Browns on October 1, 2026. Get all of Nick’s props, including picks from other experts as well as access to PickLabs, by subscribing to the RG Props package.
Week 4 of the NFL regular season will begin with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.
Both teams enter tonight’s action 2-1 SU, with the winner taking sole possession of first place in the AFC North division heading into the weekend.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The NFL odds for this matchup have shifted in favor of the Browns, who opened as 3-point underdogs, but they are now only 2.5-point underdogs as we approach kickoff. The total is set at over/under 37.5 points.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Steelers vs. Browns!
Best NFL Player Props for Steelers vs. Browns
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 1st:
- Deshaun Watson Over/Under 29.5 Rushing Yards
- Deshaun Watson Over/Under 189.5 Passing Yards
- Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 216.5 Passing Yards
Deshaun Watson UNDER 29.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSWatson had 45 rushing yards in Week 3 against Carolina, but very few of those were designed attempts. Rather, Watson scrambled from the pocket frequently in that matchup as a consequence of not being able to find open receivers downfield.
Watson has cleared this number in 2 of his first 3 games this fall, but he’s played defenses that skew man-heavier in their coverage. The Steelers have played the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL this season, which should keep Watson from gaining too many yards with his legs.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 189.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMIn Week 3, Watson had only 67 passing yards with 11:35 remaining in the 4th quarter against a Carolina defense that was missing multiple starters. Watson played a good second half against the Buccaneers in Week 2 but has otherwise looked a lot like many pundits expected him to look in 2026.
In the first half of games, Watson ranks 29th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate among 33 quarterbacks to log 25+ plays. Expect him to struggle once again on Thursday.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 216.5 Passing Yards (-111, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSRodgers began Week 3 by completing 10 of 14 passes on Pittsburgh’s first 3 offensive drives. After that, he was only 9 of 20 through the air.
Cleveland’s pass defense allowed 291 yards from Bryce Young last weekend, but that was without Tyson Campbell on the field. His return to action this evening should help the Browns limit Rodgers’ effectiveness on a short week.
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