NFL PrizePicks: Bills vs. Dolphins Player Predictions for Thursday Night Football
In this space, we’ll look at the PrizePicks board for the Bills vs. Dolphins and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL fantasy pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the number offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
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PrizePicks Predictions for Bills vs. Dolphins
- Tyreek Hill MORE/LESS 109.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
- Tua Tagovailoa MORE/LESS 18 Fantasy Points
- Tyler Bass MORE/LESS 1.5 FG Made (DEMON)
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Tyreek Hill MORE/LESS 109.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
We have Hill projected for just short of 100 yards, and that might be too conservative, considering that we also have him projected to see 11.27 targets. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Hill has averaged 10.54 yards per target, and Week 1 showed no signs of slowing down on this approach, as Hill saw an 11.9 aDOT over 12 targets. If we like Hill for 11+ targets, we should like him for 110+ receiving yards.
- PLAY: Hill MORE Than 109.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
Tua Tagovailoa MORE/LESS 18 Fantasy Points
Tagovailoa isn’t a top QB in the league, but he’s very well-trusted to throw a lot, take shots, and do so for volume. Not to mention, he has all of the weapons in the world. What he doesn’t do is run, which is concerning, but Miami should win the time of possession game within the game, allowing for Tagovailoa to throw 30+ times.
We have Tagovailoa projected for 37 pass attempts. He’s had 35+ pass attempts 7 times since the start of the 2022-23 season, in which he’s thrown for multiple TDs 4 times. The Dolphins will still run a lot, despite DeVon Achane nursing an ankle sprain, but they should run a lot of plays, and the passing volume within the red zone should get some sort of uptick.
- PLAY: Tagovailoa MORE Than 18 Fantasy Points
Tyler Bass MORE/LESS 1.5 FG Made (DEMON)
I’m a bit shocked that the Dolphins are only favored by 2.5 points at home, because it’s really difficult to see how Buffalo gets into the end zone much on a short week and starting two rookie WRs. Thursday Night Football is usually great for running games, defenses, and field goals in fantasy. That this game will be tightly contested and high scoring for two teams on a short week should tell us that the Buffalo kicking game will play a big role in the scoring, so we should like Bass to kick multiple field goals, getting us the DEMON boost.
- PLAY: Bass MORE Than 1.5 FG Made (DEMON)
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