NFL PrizePicks: Bills vs. Jets Player Predictions for Monday Night Football
In this space, we’ll look at the PrizePicks board for the 49ers vs. Seahawks and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL fantasy pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the number offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
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Vegas is telling us that this Monday Night Football tilt in Jersey is gonna be an ugly one. The total is only 41, and we’re only looking at a 1.0-point spread in favor of the visiting Bills. We should like Josh Allen to run a bit more in a highly competitive game against a defense that will force him to improvise often. And we’ll get into why we should trust the Jets to run like hell all night.
PrizePicks Predictions for Bills vs. Jets
- Josh Allen MORE/LESS 224.5 Pass Yards (DEMON) and 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
- Breece Hall MORE/LESS 79.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
- Braelon Allen MORE/LESS 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
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Josh Allen MORE/LESS 224.5 Pass Yards (DEMON) and 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
We haven’t seen that game where the ball is largely in the hands of Josh Allen to make plays. Against a tough defense like the Jets, we should expect the Bills to fall into this mode when their primary game plan is inevitably thwarted. When this happens, Allen is matchup-proof. Eclipsing 225+ passing yards comes with the volume, and surpassing 40+ rushing yards comes with the result of great coverage downfield, with the pass rush making him hurry. RotoGrinders has Allen projected for just 208.3 passing yards and 34.2 rush yards, but the PrizePicks projection is so low that it will only take about 2-3 solid events for us to “get there” when we attack these DEMONs.
- PLAY: Allen MORE Than 224.5 Pass Yards (DEMON) and 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
Breece Hall MORE/LESS 79.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
The Jets coaching shakeup makes it difficult to implement some sort of strategy that effectively beefs up the passing attack in such a short amount of time — not to mention coming off of a London disaster in Week 5. Add that the new regime has expressed the will to be a run-first offense, and that this new regime is led by a defensive-minded coach, and I say that we believe this rhetoric as more than coach speak. Do we believe that this means that Breece Hall will now be the bell cow our seasonal and Best Ball rosters want? We don’t know, but we should expect an extremely run-heavy attack with Hall as the primary back. RotoGrinders has Hall projected for 72 rushing yards on 16.6 attempts. If his volume is beefed up near 18 carries, 80 yards should come fairly simply for Hall. He came into 2024 averaging 4.81 yards per carry to start his career.
- PLAY: Hall MORE Than 79.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
Braelon Allen MORE/LESS 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
I don’t think we play Hall and Braelon Allen in contests together, but we should have exposure to both because we’re not sure which of the two will benefit most from the run-heavy approach that we should expect from the Jets. Allen is averaging 4.5 yards per carry in his rookie campaign, so we shouldn’t expect him to get totally phased out of the game plan. There’s also the outside shot at a blowout where Allen closes it out. RotoGrinders has Allen projected for 36 rushing yards. Playing 3 contests, I’m probably not exposed to this play, but we should definitely have exposure to this DEMON if we’re playing 5+ contests. There is a world where the Jets run the ball 30 times through Hall and Allen, and they each get double-digit carries.
- PLAY: Allen MORE Than 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
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