NFL PrizePicks: Chiefs vs. Falcons Player Predictions for Sunday Night Football
In this space, we’ll look at the PrizePicks board for the Chiefs vs. Falcons and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL fantasy pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the number offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
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PrizePicks Predictions for Chiefs vs. Falcons
- Patrick Mahomes MORE/LESS 299.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
- Travis Kelce MORE/LESS 59.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
- Bijan Robinson MORE/LESS 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
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Patrick Mahomes MORE/LESS 299.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
We shouldn’t overthink this because we absolutely need the 300 yards from Patrick Mahomes to get there. The only reason to shy away from Mahomes for 300+ passing yards in a dome is game script, but Vegas is giving the Falcons a lot of respect. With the Chiefs only 3-point favorites, they shouldn’t take their foot off of the gas, and that’s what we love most for Mahomes. Over his career, he averages 300.7 yards per game in outcomes within a touchdown compared to 294.9 per game in blowouts where the final margin in 15+ points, and 279.6 where the margin is within 8-14 points. This is clearly where Mahomes thrives most, and it all makes sense because closer games are when his volume is the highest. RotoGrinders has Mahomes conservatively projected for 290.3 passing yards on the evening.
- PLAY: Mahomes MORE Than 299.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
Travis Kelce MORE/LESS 59.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
If we can’t buy into Travis Kelce logging 60+ receiving yards, we’re moving him into glorified right tackle range, and that’s a mistake. PrizePicks is overreacting to his low volume through the first couple of games to where we should just rely on the talent against a defense with no answer for him. The Chiefs haven’t dominated at all through two weeks, and Vegas is saying they won’t today, but we should believe narratives of getting a guy going in extreme cases against vulnerable defenses.
Kelce is an extreme case of a great talent who saw more than 8 targets per game last season and nearly 9 the season before. If we’re buying into more volume for the passing attack in general, we should buy into Mahomes going to his most tried-and-true option early and often with little resistance. Despite the slow start, RotoGrinders has Kelce projected for 55.7 receiving yards tonight. His ceiling is so high in a get-right game for him.
- PLAY: Kelce MORE Than 59.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
Bijan Robinson MORE/LESS 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Bijan Robinson has yet to find the end zone this season, and that should change tonight. The Chiefs have a tough defense, but Vegas telling us that the Falcons are gonna score some points tells us that this could be a big game for Robinson simply because it’s really difficult to see who else gets pay dirt from this squad. There aren’t many RBs in the league in whom we can feel confident for 20+ opportunities, but Robinson is one of them. He should be the Falcons’ go-to throughout the red zone, which is probably why RotoGrinders has Robinson projected for 0.9 TDs. It’s rare that a guy is projected with such a high probability to score. It’d be great to get a DEMON boost on this, but I’m playing Robinson to score a touchdown regardless.
- PLAY: Robinson MORE Than 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
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