NFL PrizePicks: Giants vs. Steelers Player Predictions for Monday Night Football
In this space, we’ll look at the PrizePicks board for the Giants vs. Steelers and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL fantasy pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the number offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
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This game could be a total piece of crap where nothing happens offensively. Vegas has this game’s total at just 36.5, but it could also be one where the Steelers totally crush the Giants. The Giants are an extreme run-funnel defense, but Steelers’ primary back Najee Harris doesn’t carry a DEMON projection on PrizePicks — probably because the sky is the limit, given Pittsburgh’s commitment to the run. But there is the heavy possibility of a blowout where Harris is basically removed from the game. There is also the possibility that Harris gets in his own way, and the Steelers are forced into 3rd downs and 2nd and longs where they have to throw. I’m of the mind that George Pickens is Pittsburgh’s best offensive weapon, that the coaching staff and Russell Wilson are well aware of this, and that they’ll find a way to make this connection effective to create the blowout endgame scenario.
PrizePicks Predictions for Giants vs. Steelers
- Russell Wilson MORE/LESS Than 237.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
- Jaylen Warren MORE/LESS 49.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
- George Pickens MORE/LESS 89.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
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Russell Wilson MORE/LESS Than 237.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
Russell Wilson shushed the naysayers in Week 7 with a 264-yard, 2-TD performance on 29 attempts in the Steelers’ blowout over what’s supposed to be a decent Jets defense. Wilson faces another decent defense in the Giants in Week 8 on Monday Night Football, but the Giants are thriving on above-average pressure, forcing a low 6.0 aDOT. Wilson has a long history of getting the ball out fast when he needs to, on top of getting away from pressure to let big plays develop. He isn’t the runner he used to be, but we saw an 8.2 aDOT from him in Week 7 and should see a lot of binary short and long plays from him in Week 8. Wilson has always used the short stuff to set up the long ball. It’s his M.O., so 237.5 is just too low, even for an ugly-looking game, simply because the Giants offense is too inept to get the time of possession to keep the ball out of Pittsburgh’s hands. We should see the Steelers run a lot of plays, and Wilson shouldn’t need much more than 28 attempts to get to 238 pass yards.
- PLAY: Wilson MORE Than Than 237.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
Jaylen Warren MORE/LESS 49.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
All of that said, the Steelers should absolutely crush the Giants. They’re only 6.0-point favorites, but the Giants have only a 15.25 implied total. Frankly, I’d be surprised if the G-Men score more than 10. The Steelers won’t score with ease, but keeping the Giants down should bring in Jaylen Warren to start closing the game fairly early. We saw Warren get 44 rush yards on 12 carries in Week 7 against a Jets defense whose 4.2 yards per carry allowed is among the better teams in the league. In Week 8, Warren faces a Giants defense that allows the most yards per carry in the league (5.4), and they should be worn down with no momentum by the time Warren gets a lot of his volume. 49.5 rush yards is a decent projection to attack with a fantastic matchup against an extreme run-funnel defense.
- PLAY: Warren MORE Than 49.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
George Pickens MORE/LESS 89.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
If you’re also a non-believer in Najee Harris and agree that the Steelers will crush the Giants, George Pickens is the logical path toward a blowout. Wilson targeted him 9 times in 29 attempts in Week 7 after Pickens saw 8, 7, 11, and 7 targets in the previous weeks. Wilson is looking for him enough to give him an elite target share. The Steelers are clearly looking to run their offense through Harris on the ground and Pickens through the air — which is nothing new to a Mike Tomlin offense. This play serves as a great correlation with Wilson, as this connection could be the story of the game after the Steelers defense dominates the Giants’ ineptitude.
- PLAY: Pickens MORE Than 89.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
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