NFL PrizePicks Predictions Week 10: Darnold, Caleb, Jones, Javonte, Swift Make Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 10 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
For Week 10, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, game flow, oddsmakers, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks. For the best ways to attack standard projections as the base for our tickets, use our fantasy pick’em tool to get more PrizePicks picks today. We’ll also look at DEMON projections to boost our payouts.
This isn’t a great week for DEMONs so far, but more will spill out over the next 24 hours. We can jam in a lot of volume though, as our PrizePicks pick’em tool is free just for Friday! We can just attack the standard projections with the best edge and sprinkle in the DEMONs in this article for a payout boost. How we’re giving this away for PrizePicks and Underdog is beyond me, but you should take advantage of these free picks today to construct your PrizePicks contests for Week 10.
There are only 11 games this Sunday before primetime, including the morning game, but four team totals of 25 or more in the 49ers, Eagles, Bills, and Vikings for fireworks with some wide spreads to attack for rushing yards from favored RBs. The Eagles are 7.5-point favorites, the Vikings and Chargers are 7-point favorites, the Chiefs and 49ers 6.5, while Bears are only 5-point favorites, but the Pats’ implied total is only 16.25. There should be lots of late work by RBs to close out games.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 10
- Sam Darnold MORE/LESS 30.0 Pass Attempts
- Caleb Williams MORE/LESS 29.5 Pass Attempts
- D’Andre Swift MORE/LESS 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs (DEMON)
- Daniel Jones MORE/LESS 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
- Javonte Williams MORE/LESS 24.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
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Vikings vs. Jaguars PrizePicks Predictions
Sam Darnold MORE/LESS 30.0 Pass Attempts
The Jaguars are a bit of a pass-funnel defense. They give up a near-league-average of 4.4 yards per carry but a near-league-worst 7.3 net yards per pass attempt. The Vikings will know this and likely exploit it to build up a huge lead through Sam Darnold, who’s averaging 17.1 pass attempts in first halves this season, completing nearly 71% of those passes. There’s a good chance that the Vikings have enough time of possession to dominate the early game to where Darnold gets 20 attempts just in the first half, so RotoGrinders has him projected for 36.4 pass attempts in total. Our pick’em tool has this as the best play on the PrizePicks board with a 70.35% win percentage and 12.61% edge. It’s one of three plays with a three-star grade.
- PLAY: Darnold MORE Than 30.0 Pass Attempts
Patriots vs. Bears PrizePicks Predictions
Caleb Williams MORE/LESS 29.5 Pass Attempts
The 3rd-best play on the PrizePicks board is Caleb Williams to get some volume at home against the Patriots. The Bears are favored by 6, but this game is low-scoring enough to where it stays competitive enough for Williams to keep slinging the rock. In the Bears’ 4 wins, Williams hasn’t thrown much – just 29, 29, 23, and 29 times – but this is so close to us getting there this week, despite the slower pace of this game. RotoGrinders has Williams projected for 34.5 pass attempts, so our pick’em tool gives this play a 68.87% win percentage with an 11.13% edge. We’ll get to the 2nd-best play on the board when we dive into the DEMONs.
- PLAY: Williams MORE Than 29.5 Pass Attempts
D’Andre Swift MORE/LESS 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs (DEMON)
This is a pure projection play. RotoGrinders has D’Andre Swift projected for 0.7 TDs in this game, so getting a DEMON boost on 0.5 is something we wanna target if we’re playing a higher volume. We don’t normally attack these high-variance scoring projections, but there is serious edge here to consider.
- PLAY: Swift MORE Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs (DEMON)
Giants vs. Panthers PrizePicks Predictions
Daniel Jones MORE/LESS 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
RotoGrinders has Daniel Jones projected for 37.3 rush yards, making his standard projection of 26.5 the 2nd-best play to attack on the board. We should have a lot of exposure to this, but we should have exposure to his DEMON boost as well, as there isn’t much difference between his median projection and the 40 rushing yards that we need to get there. The Panthers have a horrendous team, but they do blitz nearly 29% of the time, which should force Jones to use his legs, despite not facing much imminent threat of getting sacked.
- PLAY: Jones MORE Than 39.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
Broncos vs. Chiefs PrizePicks Predictions
Javonte Williams MORE/LESS 24.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
The Broncos are going to struggle. They’re 6.5-point underdogs, which doesn’t bode well for Javonte Williams in the rushing game, but Sean Payton doesn’t like to telegraph his pass-run selection through backfield personnel, so Williams is fairly safe for 55-60% of the snaps. He’s been a low-key volume receiving back in his time in the NFL too, averaging 3.7 targets per game in his career — amassing 37 targets through 9 games this season and 16 across the Broncos’ 4 losses. He’s had 5-6 targets in 4 games this season, and we should expect something like that in a game against what should be tough coverage and pressure from the Chiefs defense. We normally don’t like RBs to catch balls from mobile QBs, but he’s getting volume that we can’t deny, averaging 7.4 yards per reception. RotoGrinders has Williams projected for 25 receiving yards, so his DEMON should be north of 29.5 here. We’re getting a good deal.
- PLAY: Williams MORE Than 24.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
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