NFL Reid Option: Week 9

Each week, Sammy Reid will break down each position in detail, pinpointing his favorite plays at various salary ranges. Who should we be focusing our core on this week? Read below to find out!

Week 9

We’re pretty much at the halfway point of this bizarre season, so it’s high time for some ridiculous football tidbits. Disclaimer: These are not meant to be actionable or even DFS-centric, just weird/fun/unexpected/zany/stupid. Off we go:

Delanie Walker (1) has more rushing TDs than Jay Ajayi (0)

— The only full-time starting QBs with more INTs than TD passes are Trevor Siemian, Joe Flacco, and … Cam Newton

Alex Smith leads all QBs with a 16/0 TD/INT ratio and 8.42 yards per attempt

— Le’Veon Bell has two rushes of 20+ yards on 194 attempts. Marlon Mack has four in 43 attempts

Todd Gurley has fumbled five times; no other running back in football has fumbled more than twice

Ed Dickson (349) has nearly as many receiving yards as Dez Bryant (366) on exactly half the targets

Jared Cook (5) has more receptions of 20+ yards than Doug Baldwin (4), Jordy Nelson (4), and Mike Evans (4)

— Teammates DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are the NFL’s co-leaders in TD receptions (7)

— Only three WRs have more than 200 YAC: Antonio Brown (266), Golden Tate (215) and … AARP member Larry Fitzgerald (213)

Jimmy Graham is averaging 9.6 yards per reception; Vernon Davis is averaging 9.6 YAC per reception

Kai Forbath has hit 21 of 22 FG attempts – including 4-for-4 from 50+ yds – but is 12-for-16 on XPTs

— Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn is the only kicker with 10+ attempts to hit 100% of his FGs this season

— DeMarcus Lawrence has racked up 115 yards lost to the offense on his 10.5 sacks, the next-closest player has 72

— The Jets’ Buster Skrine is the NFL’s only defensive player with at least one sack, one interception, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery

— The only NFL teams scoring above 30 points per game are … the Texans (30.7) and the Rams (30.3)

— The NFL is 86-for-200 (43%) overall on 4th down attempts; Denver (0-for-7), Detroit (0-for-6), Indianapolis (0-for-6), Minnesota (0-for-5), and Kansas City (0-for-3) have failed to convert on all of
their attempts

— The LA Rams have the best average starting field position of any team (its own 33.5 yard line). The worst is the Falcons (its own 24.2 yard line – worse than a kickoff touchback)

— 20.8% of the Cleveland Browns’ offensive drives have resulted them scoring, 21.9% have resulted in a turnover

— The hardest NFL QB to sack is … Case Keenum (2.1%)

— Le’Veon Bell (194) has 30 more rush attempts than the next-closest back. He also has 38 rushing attempts in the red zone, the next-closest back has 24

Antonio Brown (104.4) is the only NFL player averaging more than 87 receiving yards per game

— The only backs with 100% of their team’s rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line are Le’Veon Bell and … Joe Mixon. No other back is even
above 90%

DeAndre Hopkins has been targeted five times inside the 10-yard line and has scored a touchdown on every one of them

— The only two players to receive 50%+ of their team’s targets inside the 10-yard line are Dez Bryant and … (player-popup #christian- mccaffrey)Christian McCaffrey

— The New York Giants have allowed a TE to catch a touchdown in every game this season

— The Oakland Raiders are the only defense not to record an interception this season, becoming the first team in the history of the NFL to go interception-less in the first eight games of a season

— Only three quarterbacks have a completion percentage above 70% inside the 10-yard line: Deshaun Watson (81.8%), Aaron Rodgers (71.4%) and … Trevor Siemian (80.0%)

— Only three quarterbacks have a completion percentage under 25% inside the 10-yard line: CJ Beathard (12.5%), Jacoby Brissett (18.2%), and … Marcus Mariota (20.0%)

Rob Gronkowski (715) has 165 more air yards than any other TE. Antonio Brown (1290) has 337 more air yards than any other WR

— Quietly, Brandin Cooks is 5th among WRs in receiving yards and TY Hilton is 10th

— The 25% team target market share of Jack Doyle is the highest among all TEs and ranks 9th in the NFL including WRs

— The only qualified WR with a catch rate over 80% is … Jeremy Kerley

— Among WRs with 20+ targets, the co-leaders in lowest aDOT are teammates Cole Beasley and (player-popup #terrance- williams)Terrance Williams at 5.8

— The Patriots (Cooks and Hogan) and Bengals (Green and Lafell) are the only teams with two WRs that have played 90%+ of the team’s offensive snaps

— The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed a 49% success rate on 3rd down – the same rate as top 3rd down offense in the league has converted (Rams!)

— No NFL QB has thrown more than one interception in the Red Zone except for DeShone Kizer, who’s done it four freaking times

On a typical NFL week I put together multiple cash game lineups across multiple sites which will have significant player overlap. I diversify to hedge on the players I don’t feel as strongly about to reduce variance in a game where it’s inherent. The players I feel strongest about will be in the majority of my lineups – these are my “high exposure” picks. The “moderate exposure” players will be in roughly half of my lineups, and the “GPP” picks are higher-risk, high-reward plays that I believe will be under-owned by the masses. The GPP options listed aren’t the only guys I’ll be using in tournaments, but more so the gems I see as having the best ownership-to-upside ratio on the board.

(As always, all odds listed are accurate at time of writing, and may shift throughout the week. The Reid Option focuses exclusively on the main slate.)

QUARTERBACKMODERATE EXPOSURE

Drew Brees vs TB ($7000 DK, $$8300 FD, $12,500 FDRAFT) – What can you say about the Tampa Bay defense that hasn’t already been said about Harvey Weinstein? It’s revolting and should be torched alive. The Saints rate to be the executor of this holy retribution with their top-3 offensive efficiency by DVOA and 28.5-point implied team total. In cash games, I’m keen on the idea of locking up the majority of the Saints’ touchdown equity by rostering both Brees and Mark Ingram … and then tilting my balls off when Alvin Kamara rushes for two touchdowns.

Dak Prescott vs KC ($6700 DK, $8200 FD, $11,500 FDRAFT) – If we’re gonna be real, the cheaper pool of quarterbacks position in Week 9 is a squalid cesspool. More often than not, I’m looking to pay down at QB in cash games – especially on Draftkings – but my initial run through the slate this week gives me the feeling that the best value plays are at the skill positions, and the optimal construction entails throwing a little more jing at the signal callers. Dak strikes me as a particularly strong play; he’s been one of the most efficient QBs in the game this season – his 74.0 QBR is 2nd in the NFL and his 6.2% TD rate is 4th – and the KC passing defense has been one of the least efficient, allowing the fourth-most passing yards and passing touchdowns and seventh-most QB rushing yards per game while ranking 20th in pass defense DVOA. With Zeke finally doing his time, the Cowboys – who still have a 25.8-point implied team total, the fourth-highest of the slate – will likely lean more on the passing game, giving Dak added opportunity equity.

QUARTERBACKGPP PLAYS

Carson Wentz vs DEN ($6100 DK, $8000 FD, $11,000 FDRAFT) – We’re getting a huge discount on the NFL’s leading MVP candidate because of a mega-tough matchup … except, is it really as tough as we think? The Broncos pass defense as a whole has actually not been elite this season; it ranks 13th in pass DVOA, has allowed 12 touchdowns against four picks in seven games, and is a good-but-not-great 7th in adjusted sack rate. The Broncos D also has a big weakness covering tight ends – allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to the position – which plays well into the Ertz-centric Eagles attack. At his price on DK I wouldn’t even blame you for rolling Wentz out in cash, but regardless of the format, exposure is warranted.

RUNNING BACKHIGH EXPOSURE

Mark Ingram vs TB ($7600 DK, $7900 FD, $13,200) – Another week, another slate where I lock in Mark Ingram. The dude’s usage has been elite level without the meddling Adrian Peterson in the picture – 26.7 touches and 5.3 targets per game – and his price tag across the industry remains too low for that kind of run. With the Saints opening as 7-point home favorites and the Bucs trotting out a mediocre rush defense, I don’t see any reason we won’t see more of the same this week from Ingram.

RUNNING BACKMODERATE EXPOSURE

Lamar Miller vs IND ($6200 DK, $7500 FD, $10,900 FDRAFT) – You know who sucks? Lamar Miller. But you know who sucks worse? The Indy defense. I’m a noted Miller shader, but I’d roster a three-legged koala against Indy if it was getting 19.6 touches per game like Miller is. The Colts have allowed nine total TDs to opposing backs (only the 49ers have allowed more), and the Texans have the highest implied team total of the week (31.5 points) as 13-point home favorites – it’s Miller time.

Carlos Hyde vs ARI ($5200 DK, $6500 FD, $10,700 FDRAFT) – La da da da da da la, da daaa
La da da da, la da da da, la da da daaa

I was gonna get swept in cash, but then I got Hyde
My lineup looked like trash, until I got Hyyyyyde
Now I’m winning all the scratch and I know why (why man?)
Yeah heyyyy
Because I got Hyde
Because I got Hyde
Because I got Hyyyyyde
La da da da da da da da da

I was gonna pay up at flex, but then I got Hyde
I was gonna go without havin sex, but then I got Hyyyyyde
Now I’ve got ends for yeyo and escorts, and I know why (why man?)
Yeah heyyyy
Because I got Hyde
Because I got Hyde
Because I got Hyyyyyde
La da da da da da da da da

I was gonna listen to Davis Mattek, but then I got Hyde
I was gonna pull some fishy antic, but then I got Hyyyyyde
Now I’m gonna call him a fish on the pod, and I know why (why man?)
Yeah heyyyy
Because I got Hyde
Because I got Hyde
Because I got Hyyyyyde
La da da da da da da da da

WIDE RECEIVERMODERATE EXPOSURE

Devin Funchess vs ATL ($5400 DK, $6100 FD, $10,400 FDRAFT) – Kelvin Benjamin has been shipped off to Buffalo, and now Funchess gets Cam Newton’s off-target downfield throws all to himself – it’s a very exciting time. Really, Funchess’s workload has been strong for awhile now – since Week 2, he’s averaged 8.0 targets per game with six or more in every contest. With the expectation of an extra look or two, he becomes a strong value at his price point.

DeSean Jackson @ NO ($5500 DK, $6200 FD, $10,400 FDRAFT) – This will be the second week in a row that I play Jackson – a man who should never be played in cash – in cash. That may sound fishy, but once you hear me out and you’ll see that it definitely is. Jackson sits behind only AB and Alshon Jeffery in total air yards, and Mike Evans will spend a plurality of his time covered up by stud CB Marshon Lattimore. With Tampa likely to trail and be forced into a pass-heavy gamescript, DJax should see plenty of work in a likely shootout. In other news, I have gills and scales and sleep with my eyes open.

Jarvis Landry vs OAK ($6300 DK, $7000 FD, $11,500 FDRAFT) – Landry has been a target hog all season, ranking 2nd in overall looks (80) and 3rd in target market share (32%) while seeing double-digit targets in all but one game. The Raiders have been the NFL’s worst team in pass defense efficiency and also have the league’s 2nd-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.4%), which should allow the Miami passing game a far easier go of it than he had last week in Baltimore. He’s the cheapest 10+ targets on the slate and an especially strong play on full PPR sites.

WIDE RECEIVERGPP PLAYS

T.Y. Hilton @ HOU ($4900 DK, $6600 FD, $10,700 FDRAFT) – Hilton’s home/road splits are well-documented, and he’s been woefully inefficient this season. However, he’s cheaper than a Tijuana street walker and still ranks in the top-10 in both receiving yards and air yard market share, and because he runs roughly 40% of his routes out of the slot, should see plenty of time against Kareem Jackson, who’s allowed the 4th-highest fantasy points per route run of any cornerback slated to start this week.

Dez Bryant vs KC ($6400 DK, $7700 FD, $11,600 FDRAFT) – My love for Dak and the Dallas passing game has been documented, and it’s Dez who is likely to be the main receiving beneficiary. The RCB slot for KC has been a sieve all season, and last week Phillip Gaines was benched for Kenneth Acker – who promptly allowed .4 fantasy points per route run, including 5-66 on nine targets from Demaryius Thomas. Dez – who ranks 5th in the NFL in air yards market share – has also been given a strong pricing discount despite the dream matchup, making a Dez Prescott stack both affordable and fire af.

TIGHT ENDMODERATE EXPOSURE

Jack Doyle @ HOU ($4300 DK, $5700 FD, $8900 FDRAFT) – Dump-Off City, Population: Doyle

TIGHT ENDGPP PLAYS

Vernon Davis @ SEA ($4100 DK, $5400 FD, $6500 FDRAFT) – Davis’s big-play ability is clearly still intact; since joining the Redskins in 2016, an incredible 27.9% of his receptions have gone for 20+ yards. With both Jordan Reed and Earl Thomas appearing extremely doubtful for this week’s game, Davis should own the snaps and the middle of the field against a defense that naturally filters targets there anyway. Getting some VD in your life never felt so good.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMSMODERATE EXPOSURE

Eagles vs DEN ($3300 DK, $5200 FD, $6000 FDRAFT) – Imagine that you got paid every time Brock Osweiler got sacked, clumsily fumbled the ball, or stupidly threw it to the other team. And the only caveat was, you’d lose money if he ever scored. You’d laugh heartily and say, “hell, that’s the best deal I ever done been offered!” Well friends, it’s not too good to be true. This offer, which is may or may not be a one-time deal, is available to you in Week 9. Take advantage.

Panthers vs ATL ($2700 DK, $4500 FD, $6000 FDRAFT) – If you can’t get up to JAX, HOU, or PHI, don’t feel bad about dropping down to the Panthers for value. They rank 6th in overall defensive DVOA and are one of just three teams – along with PIT and DET – to rank in the top-10 against both the rush and the pass. The Panthers also rank 2nd in the NFL in adjusted sack rate (10.1%) behind only Sacksonville, and provide great value on both Draftkings and FanDuel at their respective price points.

Thanks for reading everyone! Let’s go make some money in Week 9.

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

About the Author

  • Sammy Reid (SammyReid)

  • Sammy is a former online poker professional and Hearts champion who has been playing competitive fantasy sports for more than 15 years. A student of both sports and game theory, Sammy has been grinding DFS cash games since 2013. You can find more of his work in the 2017 edition of Joe Pisapia’s Fantasy Black Book, at FantasyInsiders.com, RosterCoach.com, and the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast.

Comments

  • Feelingfroggy

    Great write-up. Thank you. Not often I can say I laughed while doing my homework.

  • boogereatingmoron

    • 992

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Another great article Sammy, thanks…..now if you will excuse me, I am gonna get Hyde…..and maybe a little VD in my life

  • tkdman14

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Probably the most entertaining read of the year so far!

  • mrjordan23

    “he’s cheaper than a Tijuana street walker”….. and you would know this how? :) j/k

  • CalRipkenJr

    When Taijuan Walker get the nickname “Street” again? lol I kid, I KID

  • Sportymouth

    The Carlos Hyde reading was really good and funny! 🏆

  • Mfulwiler

    Great article filled with juicy stats! Loved that it made me LOL. Thanks man keep it up.

  • hotchef504

    Great read man, most I’ve laughed in a while.

  • SammyReid

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler