NFL Week 1: H2H vs. GPP Plays
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 3 NFL contest period from Sunday through Monday’s old school matchup with the New York Jets playing host to the Chicago Bears. Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a 3TD day or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Quarterback
There are multiple ways to go with your QB slot, either with a premium guy like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees; or with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
For example, if we choose Drew Brees as our QB at his current $9,700 price, we would need him to produce about 20 points, which is about 300 passinig yards, 2.2 TDs and 1 INT. These numbers seem very doable for an elite QB like Brees. If we averaged these numbers over 16 weeks, Brees would have had a season that would rank near the Top 25 best seasons of all time. Yes, the NFL has changed into a pass-happy league the last few years, but there is still a small margin of error for Brees to hit his value.
Now let’s look at someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick who is priced at $6,100 in a great matchup against a Washington team that allowed just under 250 yds passing per game last season. We would need Fitzpatrick to get about 12pts to reach our benchmark target which would be accomplished with a game line of 250pyds 1 TD, 2 INTs. Throw in the nearly 20 rushing yards per game he averaged last season and add an extra passing TD and all of a sudden you are well above the 12pt target and at 18pts. That is what we are looking for in our H2H players, an achievable floor, but with upside.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Drew Brees at ATL – $9,700: Yes, I did just mention that there is not a lot of margin for error for Brees, however, this matchup with Atlanta is too good to pass up, even on the road. In the two games against the Falcons last season, Brees threw for 635 yds, 4 TDs and 1 INT, which averages out to about what we need to have him produce in Week 1 to make us happy. When you account for Brees’ upside (six games last season with at least three TDs), then starting a roster off with him seems like a pretty reasonable idea.
Shaun Hill vs MIN – $5,000: From time-to-time there will be an unforeseen bargain, whether due to injury, suspension or a coach’s whim there will be a variable that was not accounted for by the pricing algorithms used to create the player’s salary. In this case, an injury to starter Sam Bradford has thrust Shaun Hill into the starting role for Week 1. At his minimum salary, a stat line of 200pyds 2 TDs and 2 INTs will provide the points we need and more importantly allow us to upgrade other positions on our team.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and receiving yards and receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position like Defense and Kicker which will be addressed in short order.
Jamaal Charles vs TEN – $9,800: With Dwayne Bowe cooling his heels on the sideline this week, it will not be a shock to see Jamaal Charles as one of the most highly owned RBs of Week 1. Charles had 120+ yds in 11 of the 15 games in which he played and had an amazing 70 catches (which are worth 0.5pts each on FanDuel) to go with his 19TDs. All the more reason to work Charles onto your roster.
Andre Ellington vs SD – $6,800: With Rashard Mendenhall no longer on the Cardinals roster, this should be Ellington’s team going forward. Last year he never had more than 17 touches in a game and only had more than 14 twice. He should be seeing closer to 20-25 touches consistently this season. That workload has not yet been factored into his salary and he should have plenty of room to return value at his current price point.
Rashad Jennings at DET – $6,700: After last year and even during this preseason, Eli Manning just doesn’t look like the same confident, thriving-in-the-spotlight QB that has won two Super Bowls. To me, this means that Tom Coughlin will be relying heavily on Rashad Jennings in both the rushing and passing game. It would not be a stretch to hope for 120 combined yards, four catches and a touchdown in this matchup, which would be 20 FanDuel points.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups, typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assembled your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Calvin Johnson vs NYG (simply the best), Julio Jones vs NO (finally healthy and in what should be a high scoring game) and Andre Johnson (there really are not many trustworthy aerial options in Houston)
Mid-Tier Choices – Reggie Wayne (he will want to score in this game just as much as his old pal Peyton – though we’ll be watching injury-rust closely), Eric Decker (easily the top option on his new team) and Michael Floyd (all the attention will rightfully be on Larry Fitzgerald, which should leave Floyd in single coverage)
Bargain Bin Ballers – Golden Tate (actually underrated and will get single coverage with CJ drawing a crowd every play), Jeremy Maclin (finally healthy and at a very low price in a high flying offense) and Rueben Randle (the Lions will be focused on preventing Victor Cruz from doing his salsa dance, so Randle should be good for a couple cheap catches).
Tight End
Jimmy Graham will be the highest scoring tight end most weeks, but the decision will have to be made if he is worth his DFS price each week. The alternative to Graham is selecting one of the mid-tier players with fantastic matchups. In Week 1, we have Greg Olsen at TB, Martellus Bennett vs BUF or Jordan Reed at HOU. Finally, there are punt plays like Ladarius Green at ARI or Zach Ertz vs JAX.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I like Josh Brown at DET and Greg Zuerlein vs MIN.
Defense / Special Teams (DST)
DST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have ten return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know when these may occur.
Generally I start at the bottom of the price list and work my way up until I find a defense that has a matchup that doesn’t completely scare me. This week I am looking to the Detroit Lions who are hosting interception extraordinaire Eli Manning. The Houston Texans are at home facing a very shaky Robert Griffin III. Last, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also at home against an already banged up and depleted Carolina Panther squad.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Jay Cutler vs BUF – $8,000: Later in the season, Cutler will likely be dinged up, however, this Sunday he will be a full go and has arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL on the other end of his passes. Last year, Cutler’s production in contests where he played the entire game was about 275pyds 2 TDs and 1 INT. With Alshon Jeffery dominating from the first snap this season, Brandon Marshall still an elite option, Matt Forte in the flat, and Martellus Bennett on the drag routes, Cutler is looking primed for a big game. He has 300yd, 3TD upside, which is what you will need if you want to see your name near the top of the leaderboard.
Geno Smith vs OAK – $7,000: Smith had some surprisingly good games last year, especially for his price point. This is the kind of player that you want, one that will be on a low percentage of entries, who can get to 3-3.5pts/$1k salary.
Running Back
Monte Ball vs IND – $8,000: In case you didn’t know, the first Sunday Night Football game will feature Peyton Manning and his new team hosting Peyton Manning’s old team. Getting lost in the hype is the fact that Knowshon Moreno is no longer in town and Monte Ball will be the entire Denver rushing attack. This is a role he has definitely earned. There was some concern about his recovery from his appendectomy procedure earlier in the preseason, but he looked solid with heavy usage during the first two drives of the Broncos’ final preseason game and should be a full go. A lot of people will be focused on Peyton, but if he has a merely pedestrian game and Monte goes off, you will be ahead of most of the Manning entries.
Shane Vereen at MIA – $6,600: Up until the last minute prior to the final roster cuts, there were rumors that Stevan Ridley would not be with the Patriots when they broke camp. He still is, but I think that this highlights Vereen as the main option in this year’s iteration of the New England running back by committee. Would it be a shock to see Vereen end the day with 100yds and two scores? If he doesn’t, oh well, it wasn’t your day. However, if he does, you will be looking good as he will probably be on less than 15% of the rosters in most GPPs.
Pierre Thomas at ATL – $6,600: Another RB on a high scoring team, but also in a committee. Again, would two TDs be out of the blue?
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP, it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember, you want to go big or go home in this format.
Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall vs BUF: if you have these guys along with Jay Cutler and catch lightening in a bottle, you will be smiling. You won’t be alone either, but this scenario would likely put you in the top 20% of the field and if you hit on a couple other positions, well you can consider yourself Belichickain.
Roddy White vs NO: Julio Jones will likely be on twice as many rosters as Roddy White, so if it is Roddy that has 100yds and 2 TDs and Julio only gets and empty 80yds, then you would be ahead of the game.
Emmanuel Sanders vs IND: As of this writing, it looks like Wes Welker will be suspended for the first four games. Last year in Week 1, Julius Thomas had a crazy game with 7/110/2. While that is a stretch, it certainly isn’t impossible for Sanders to have a similarly big game.
Tight End
This a good position to take chances on. While I wouldn’t dream of using Rob Gronkowski this week (limited workload) on my H2H teams, I don’t mind him in a tournament. Even if he played 15-20 total snaps, he could still conceivably end up with 2TDs if things bounce the right way.
Another interesting choice would be to punt with Ladarius Green and hope that Antonio Gates is relegated to decoy status this season. Again, think outside the box at TE.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Good Luck Gamers!