NFL Week 1 Review
NFL Week 1 Review
Pleasant Surprises
- Arian Foster – The 2nd year running back out of Tennessee who went undrafted, erased any memories of Steve Slaton’s existence in the fantasy football realm over his 33 carries for 231 yards and 3 scores on Sunday. So far he has exceeded the pre-draft hype. Congratulations if you grabbed him.
- Wes Welker – Speaking of being undrafted, Wes Welker continues to defy all odds. If he continues at the rate he’s been on since joining New England, his football life-story is capable of making Rudy look like a whiny bitch. ACL’s be damned to the tune of 8 catches, 2 touchdowns and 64 yards.
- Jamaal Charles – There is no more denying that Jamaal Charles is, at worst, the second most explosive running back in the NFL. Had he started every game last season he likely would have had more total rushing yards than Chris Johnson. Charles’ big first game was extremely important for him over the next few weeks, because it solidifies the fact that you can’t keep him off the field. Apparently KC coach Todd Haley is the only person on the planet unaware of this.
- Jahvid Best – This was the first test for the rookie, and he proved himself against a formidable Bear’s defense. While the 14 rushes for 20 yards was disappointing, he did have 5 catches and he was the clear #1 back. Sure the Lions have some issues on offense right now, but we are looking at a 2009 Kevin Smith at worst and a 2009 Kevin Smith with this massive upside at BEST.
- Mike Williams – While both showed promise, only Mike Williams of Tampa Bay makes this list. Mike Williams is just poised to be a star wide receiver in the NFL…if only he had more talent around him. M-Wil-TB (best I could do, sorry) managed 1 TD on 5 of 9 targets and should have had 2 TDs and an additional 30 yards. After the game, Josh Freeman apologized to the media for missing a wide-open Mike Williams and costing the rookie WR a touchdown.
- Miles Austin – I’m feeling pretty stupid for sleeping on Miles Austin right now. The Redskins pass defense came into this season ranked 6th based on my defensive fantasy projections, and they really are good. This makes a line of 10 catches on 11 targets for 146 yards and 1 TD that much more impressive. Miles Austin is the real deal.
- Mark Clayton – If 2 months ago you told me that this season Mark Clayton would have the first 100 yard game of his career on week 1…with 16 targets and 10 catches…while a member of the St. Louis Rams…all being thrown by fellow Boomer-Sooner alumnus Sam Bradford…I would have punched you in the face. Likely without hesitation.
- Ray Lewis – Never. Ever. Question Ray Lewis again. It appears his Old Spice commercials didn’t detract from his ferociousness on the field. He single-handedly made Dustin Keller and Shonn Greene look like Pop-Warner players on 2 of his 4 tackles Monday Night.
- Chad Ochocinco – Most of 85’s numbers came in the second half when the game was, for all-intensive purposes, out of reach for the Bengals. Still, a very impressive debut. On a side note, I would recommend watching this.
- Jermaine Gresham – Another Bengal with an impressive showing through the air, this rookie Tight End had 6 catches, 10 targets and 1 touchdown. The Bengals have been in dire need of a solid TE for years now, and Gresham could be their answer. He could provide some serious value at the TE spot in the upcoming weeks.
Disappointing Debuts
- Shonn Greene – Uh oh. Sure it’s the Ravens defense, but that is the least of your concerns if you took Shonn Greene right now. As a starter Greene was only given 5 carries compared to LT’s 11. On those 5 carries he generated only 18 yards…oh yea, he fumbled the ball twice losing one of them.
- CJ Spiller – He still has the potential to be a top back in the NFL, but those of you who grabbed Spiller as a low-cost RB play this week are probably kicking yourself right now. Spiller received only 7 carries, while Fred Jackson had 4 and Marshawn Lynch had 3. It seemed like just yesterday CJ Spiller was the only healthy back in Buffalo. The Bills have a strong chance of being the worst team in the NFL this season, unless the Bucs or the Browns have something to say about it.
- Jerome Harrison – What a roller-coaster week for Jerome Harrison. I kind of feel bad for the guy. Every opportunity he was given last season, he more than proved himself. What does Mangini want from him? To double the NFL single-game rushing record? Merely setting the record was not enough apparently. Nothing against the least-known member of the Arkansas NFL RB Trio, but I still don’t know why Jerome Harrison had to take a backseat to James Davis last season, and what he did to deserve splitting touches with Peyton Hillis week 1. In addition, on Sunday Harrison also received 4 less passing targets, and may have no shot at red-zone duties. Oh Cleveland…
- Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub – Nothing to worry about here. This was just a weird game for lack of a better word. But still, the stat lines from these two usually stud players might have you worried based on what you paid for them. It’s unlikely Arian Foster averages 3 touchdowns a game, but weeks 2 and 3 feature matchups against the Redskins and the Cowboys, both of whom have solid pass defenses. However, less a matchup with the Jets in Week 11 and the Ravens in Week 14, the remainder of the season should be smooth sailing for the Texan’s air-attack.
- DeSean Jackson – DeSean Jackson was an all or nothing play when the Eagles had McNabb last season – Most days being an all. Now, not only do they not have McNabb, but it is Week 2 and the Eagles are already in the midst of a Quarterback controversy. The icing on the cake to your WR-worry is that DeSean only managed 30 yards on 4 catches. It’s a rough start for his cost and potential, but I wouldn’t worry too much as he was targeted 11 times in the game, he is a freakishly-good athlete, and things can only go up from here.
- The Jets Offense – Where I would worry, is if you own anyone on the Jets offense. I still think I like Santonio Holmes, but from a fantasy perspective this entire offense looks to be headed on a one-way path to costing your weekly team a victory.
- Michael Crabtree – This situation is a mess. The 49ers looked absolutely miserable against the 4th worst fantasy defense headed into this season. They didn’t even manage 1 touchdown against a Seahawks D that let up 2.8 touchdowns per game last season. I have faith in every aspect of Mike Singletary’s offense, and the Niner’s schedule provides tasty matchups all season long. Let’s just hope this was a fluke week for Crabtree and the Niners.
- Michael Turner – While 19 carries for 42 yards is scary, there is no need to panic. This was the Steelers, and their run D is capable of stopping anyone. If this drops Turner’s value in any of your Daily Fantasy sites, he might be worth pouncing on in Week 2.
- Mike Sims-Walker – Wow. Goose-egg city. I would love to tell you not to worry, but there is reason to stray from Sims-Walker altogether until you see him put up a solid game again.
The Grey Area
- Cedric Benson – 43 yards, a fumble, and a good showing from Bernard Scott has to have you worried about Benson’s value moving forward.
- Ray Rice – The PPR Machine is still one of the most talented RBs in the NFL, but the PPR production is going to go down this season…a lot. With Boldin, Mason, Housh and Heap all short route experts, it is unlikely Ray Rice sees as many passing targets as he did last season. What does that leave him with? Hopefully 20 rushes per game while Willis McGahee handles RedZone duties. I don’t need to see the salary on a site-by-site basis here. Ray Rice is over-priced.
- Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells – This battle may never go away. I will believe Wells is the #1 back when I see it. Neither RB has good value unless the other is out, unless it the site offers PPR scoring, then Hightower is still worth a look.
- Darren McFadden – Is this finally the year for Run-DMC? He does have the potential, but he is very injury prone. He more than proved his capabilities against the Titans in Week 1 while Michael Bush was sidelined. However Michael Bush is also a very solid back himself and is almost healthy which makes the future of rushing production in Oakland is a murky situation to predict.
- Hakeem Nicks – I had to include Nicks somewhere in this piece for his monster 3 TD performance against a stout Carolina pass defense. However, I am more confused about the Giants passing threats now than I ever have been before. I don’t see a clear-cut choice here, and I don’t trust Eli Manning to consistently spread the wealth enough for fantasy production for the entire offense. The Giant’s WRs are beginning to look like a crap shoot of a pick from week to week.
- Dexter McCluster – While we are on the Chiefs, it was clear that Charlie Weiss plans on getting Dexter McCluster involved in their offense this season. He can be closely compared to a Percy Harvin and has immense upside. However, Matt Cassel cannot be compared to Brett Favre, nor can the Chiefs O-line be compared to the Vikings. He is a low-cost, high-potential pick right now and it should take a while for his weekly salary cost to reach his true value. I would recommend grabbing him in certain low-cost filler situations early in the season while it’s still affordable to do so.
Injury Issues Create Salary Value
- Michael Vick – Kevin Kolb is likely out Week 2 with a concussion and Vick appeared to have his burst back against the Packers Sunday. Mike Vick could make an excellent spot play this week.
- Brandon Jackson – Ryan Grant is set to miss his first ever NFL game due to injury. Brandon Jackson is an above-average back in an above-average situation. Likely to have an extremely low cost in Week 2, Jackson might be an excellent value play.
- Shaun Hill – Matthew Stafford is out ‘indefinitely’ with an AC shoulder sprain. This means you have the option to choose Hill now. He is a low-risk, low-reward QB option that has to hurt the potential for Megatron moving forward.
- Jimmy Clausen – Matt Moore is the 2nd QB that is likely out Week 2 with a concussion. For a rookie, Jimmy Clausen looked poised in the preseason while operating the Panthers offense. Steve Smith looks back to full-form, so Clausen could be a solid value QB pick Week 2 vs the Bucs.
- Steven Jackson – Uh oh…The oft-injured S-Jax is having issues with his knee already this season. This is a situation to monitor closely.