NFL Week 3: H2H vs. GPP Plays

by Emac (emac) Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:27:21

In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.

In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 3 NFL contest period from Sunday through Monday’s old school matchup with the New York Jets playing host to the Chicago Bears. Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.

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Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format

The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.

For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a 3TD day or they may not see the end zone for a month.

We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.

With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.

Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.

Quarterback

Depending on the style that best suits your team building preference and appetite for risk; you can go with a premium guy like Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning; with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.

Andrew Luck $9,500 at JAX: If we choose Luck as our QB at his current price, we would need him to produce about 20 points or 300pyd, 2 TDs, 1 INT and 20ryd. This is very doable and I don’t mind Luck as my main QB in the H2H format. One thing to consider though is that if the Colts get out to a big lead (-7 road favorites) they may decide to try and get Trent Richardson going to help boost his confidence. That would cut down on the stats produced by Luck. However, he does have a very solid floor which is what we are looking for from our premium priced players.

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Matthew Stafford $9,000 vs GB: Stafford has put up 80 pass attempts through the first two games this year for 637pyd 3 TDs and 1 INT. The yardage has been especially strong and it projects to an excellent 5,096pyd for the season. One of the reasons I am leaning towards Stafford over Luck, and it is splitting hairs somewhat, is that I believe he will be in more of a shootout against Aaron Rodgers and a host of outstanding receivers. This should create a high scoring game and we should see Stafford eclipse the 30 FanDuel points he scored in Week 1 against the NY Giants.

Kirk Cousins $6,800 at PHI: Cousins is exactly the type of situation we look for in Daily Fantasy Sports, someone who as a result of a major change in roles, is in a terrific spot to exceed his points/price ratio. With the unfortunate injury to Robert Griffin III, Cousins will get to helm the Washington football team for the foreseeable future. He had a nice game in relief of RGIII with 22/33 250pyd and 2 TDs. If he replicates those numbers this week against the Eagles, in a game with the highest over under of the day at 50.5, then he will easily pay off his current price point and allow you to upgrade your roster at other positions.

Running Back

While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position like Defense and Kicker which will be addressed in short order.

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Giovani Bernard $8,500 vs TEN: Bernard was absolutely brilliant last week and a real treat for those gamers that selected him for their squads. His 169 yards, 5 receptions and a TD have led to a $700 price increase over last week’s salary. This is a favorable matchup against the visiting Titans this week who allowed the Cowboys to run wild for 220 yards last week, so don’t let yourself be dissuaded from using one of the most effective RBs of 2014.

Knile Davis $7,000 at MIA: Well, that escalated quickly, to paraphrase Ron Burgundy. This week Knile Davis will be one of the most popular choices in daily fantasy football with good reason. For his price, he just needs to get 100 yards, a couple of catches and a TD and everyone will be thrilled. This is one occasion that I do not mind rostering a player that I believe will be very highly owned. The matchup is a solid one and having him on my squads will also protect me against the many other gamers that have him on their teams.

Stephen Ridley $6,200 vs OAK: It is never easy to trust a running back for the Patriots, however, with New England favored by two touchdowns we can connect the dots and project Ridley to have a larger-than-normal role as Belichick and company run to protect the lead.

Wide Receiver

There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups, typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assembled your receiving corps.

Top Shelf Options – Calvin Johnson $9,000 vs GB: while I don’t normally pair up QBs and WRs in my H2H contests, I think that is a safe strategy in this matchup and am projecting Megatron for 120/2 this week against the Packers. As a result of matchups and pricing this week, Calvin Johnson is the only high price WR I feel confident in utilizing for my H2H contests.

Mid-Tier Choices – Brandon Cooks $6,900 vs MIN (it is nice to see him getting couple carries per game as he is a homerun threat any time he touches the ball), Andre Johnson $7,100 at NYG (with 16 targets and 12 receptions through the first two weeks, Johnson is still a focal point in the Houston aerial attack) and Jeremy Maclin $6,300 vs WAS (Maclin has clearly been the go-to guy for Nick Foles this season and I expect that to continue against a galvanized Washington team this week).

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Bargain Bin Ballers – Brian Quick $5,200 vs DAL (was very involved again this week for his second straight 7 catch game, it is only a matter of time before he puts one in the end zone), Markus Wheaton $5,100 at CAR (this is a tough matchup, but with Antonio Brown dinged up and the Steelers not afraid to work Wheaton into the running game, I am finding the second year receiver on A TON of my rosters this week) and Andrew Hawkins $5,300 vs BAL (22 targets in the first two contest have led to 14 receptions for 157 yards, making Hawkins another discounted play that I like to reach pay dirt this weekend).

Tight End

Once again Jimmy Graham $8,400 vs MIN is the premium cash game TE this week. Behind Door #2 we have mid-tier players with solid matchups like Greg Olsen $6,100 vs PIT and a surging Delanie Walker $5,900 at CIN. Additionally there are bargain options like Jared Cook $5,200 at TB, Larry Donnell $4,900 vs HOU and if Jordan Reed is out again, look to last week’s recommended play Niles Paul $5,000 at PHI, as a fine choice.

Kicker

Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I really like Shayne Graham vs MIN, Robbie Gould $4,600 at NYJ and I am rolling the dice once more with Josh Brown $4,500 vs HOU.

Defense / Special Teams (DST)

DST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have ten return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know when these may occur.

Generally I start at the bottom of the price list and work my way up until I find a defense that has a matchup that doesn’t completely scare me. However, this week, there are some intriguing matchups that I don’t mind spending more than normal to get on my teams. New England $5,400 is playing host to the Oakland Raiders, who have the double whammy of flying across the country AND dealing with a 1pm start. While my second choice is a road team, the Indianapolis Colts $5,100 will be taking on a Jacksonville squad that gave up 10 sacks to Washington in their game last week and should again be playing from behind.

Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)

Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.