NFL Week 4 Betting Lines: Chargers, Totals Among Best Bets
As if the first two weeks of the NFL season were not chaotic enough, Week 3 saw three teams lose that were favored by at least a touchdown prior to the game. We also saw Josh McDaniels inexplicably kick a field goal inside the opponent’s 10-yard line while down eight points in the closing minutes of a must-win game. Week 4 promises to bring another batch of excitement and plenty more opportunities for the community to second guess their favorite head coaches.
The betting market moves quickly in the NFL, as reports of last week’s injuries surface. This necessitates early look-aheads at the upcoming week of action, even before the Monday matchups unfold. Each week this season, we will be taking an early look at betting lines, offering a few leans for the community to consider tailing before odds move!
NFL Week 4 Betting Lines
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers +1.5, O/U 45.5
- Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars -3, O/U 43.5
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -2.5, O/U 53.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans +3, O/U 41
- Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts +1.5, O/U 45.5
- Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers +3.5, O/U 44.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -2.5, O/U 40.5
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles -7, O/U 44.5
- Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears +3.5, O/U 46
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 41.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans +1.5, O/U 42.5
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers -6, O/U 47.5
- New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys -7, O/U 42.5
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -14, O/U 43.5
- Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets +9.5, O/U 43
- Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants -1.5, O/U 46.5
NFL Week 4 lines last updated 3:11PM ET Monday, September 25th.
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears, Over 45.5
In Week 2, the Denver Broncos defense generated pressure on only 2.7% of their defensive snaps, which was, by far, the worst pressure rate for any defense this season. The next worst pressure rate in a single game was 10.2%…by the Broncos in Week 1. The Chicago Bears’ defense has been nearly as bad when it comes to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 26th out of 32 teams through three games. Overall, these two defenses rank 31st and 32nd in EPA/play so far this fall. It would be surprising to see either defensive figure anything out ahead of their Week 4 battle — a shootout is a highly probable outcome here.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, Under 41.5
The Cleveland Browns are one of only two teams in the NFL to generate pressure on at least 30 percent of their defensive snaps in each of their three games to start 2023, with the other being the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. Jim Schwartz and his new-look Cleveland defense have posted the best success rate of any team in the league through three weeks, and it’s not particularly close. The Baltimore Ravens have also done a good job getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks early this year, which should make life difficult on Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland offense. Intra-division affairs are frequently low-scoring and this contest is unlikely to be an exception to that rule.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, Over 44.5
Through three weeks of action, the Minnesota Vikings defense ranks 28th in pressure rate. The Carolina Panthers defense ranks 25th in pressure rate to begin the year. Unsurprisingly, both of these defenses also rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in passing yards allowed per play, first downs allowed per game, and red zone percentage. Assuming Andy Dalton starts again in Week 4, both of these quarterbacks are more than capable of putting up points, with the benefit of throwing from a clean pocket for most of the afternoon. Carolina, which already had an injury-plagued defense, lost three more starters in Week 3 — defensive backs Xavier Woods and C.J. Henderson, and linebacker Frankie Luvu. It would not be surprising to see this line close north of 47 by the time kickoff gets here on Sunday.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Despite the cognitive limitations of head coach Brandon Staley, the Los Angeles Chargers managed to barely come away with a much-needed victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. In Week 4, they have a great chance to get back to the .500 mark against an equally poor head coach, who could be forced to use a backup quarterback in this matchup after Jimmy Garoppolo entered concussion protocol on Monday afternoon. The Las Vegas Raiders rank 27th out of 32 teams in pressure rate through three weeks and 21st in passing yards allowed per play. There is nothing (other than Brandon Staley unnecessarily micro-managing this game) here to suggest that an upset is remotely a possibility, especially if Brian Hoyer ends up under center for Las Vegas on Sunday.