NFL Week 5: H2H vs. GPP Plays
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats: head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 5 NFL contest period, beginning with Sunday’s 13-game slate and going through Monday Night Football, where the Seattle Seahawks will be making a visit out to face Washington at FedEx Field.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple: you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The keyword to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, and other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score two points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part. Let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team building preference and appetite for risk; you can go with a premium guy like Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers; with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Drew Brees $9,100 vs TB: Brees was very solid on Sunday Night Football in leading the visitors to some late-game points in Dallas. After playing three of their last four games on the road, the Saints are back in their dome sweet dome, where Brees and his receivers do their best work. Over the last several seasons Brees has produced more efficient stats in his home games, culminating in the widest splits last season (126.3 QB rating, 73.6 comp%, 27 TDs and three INTs vs. 84.8 QB rating, 64.0 comp%, 12 TDs and nine INTs). Through the first month, the Saints are third in passing yards, and this week’s opponent Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth most passing yards on the season. Start Brees with confidence this week.
Phillip Rivers $8,500 vs NYJ: Rivers looked great last week against the Jaguars, as the Chargers’ resurgent running game turned out to be a mirage. This week the NY Jets and their #1 rushing defense are making a trip out west. Over the last three weeks the Jets have allowed 288 passing yards per game, seven TDs and ZERO interceptions. During that same span Rivers has averaged 305 passing yards per game and has eight TDs with ZERO interceptions. Sometimes the matchups in Daily Fantasy Sports are just too good to pass up, and with the Chargers lack of a running game they will be throwing from the start.
Eli Manning $7,300 vs ATL: Eli and the Giants’ receiving corps were certainly on the same page against Washington last Thursday. His 300 yard and four TDs (with a fifth score coming on a scramble) will likely represent his high watermark for the season. However, Atlanta has allowed 276 passing yards per game this season, and since they have the second-best scoring offense, they will be in this contest until the bitter end, which should afford the youngest Manning brother plenty of reasons to throw, throw, throw.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup, done so by utilizing your savings from another position like Defense and Kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Marshawn Lynch $9,100 at WAS: ormally I prefer taking Lynch when he is playing in Seattle, however, I really like his matchup against Washington this week. Yes, they are giving up less than 90 yards per game on the ground, but after watching the Giants roll up 154 yards and two TDs, Lynch should be in for an outstanding showing on Monday Night Football. In order to pay off his high salary, he is going to need two touchdowns, but his floor is probably 100 yards and a score. Pairing him with Eli Manning looks like a symbiotic combination this week. For those of you that who are hesitant to take Lynch this week, look to Giovani Bernard $8,800 at NE in the same price range, that is if you’re looking for another talented back with a nice road matchup.
Rashad Jennings $7,200 vs ATL: Last week the Falcons gave up 241 rushing yards and four TDs to the Vikings. Jennings will be a very popular choice for good reason, and if you are going with a pricey QB/WR combo, then you will need to find a few mid-tier options to offset that salary cap hit.
Le’Veon Bell $8,600 at JAX: Bell had another outstanding performance and is now behind only DeMarco Murray in the rushing race. With Jacksonville giving up 130 rushing yards per game and the Steelers projected to get four TDs, this is a fair price to pay for Bell, who I am projecting for 125 combined yards and at least one score.
Khiry Robinson $4,900 vs TB: Robinson has out-produced Pierre Thomas the last two weeks, and at this price he will enable us to afford an extra premium player or two mid-tier upgrades. If Khiry can get just 80 yards and a score, he will be a coup for those that have faith in him this week.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups, but typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assembled your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Julio Jones $8,800 at NYG: After averaging a lofty 18.8 FanDuel points per game for the first month of the season, Julio has knocked Megatron out of the pole position this week. With just over 10 targets per game, Jones has multiple opportunities to come up big each week.
Mid-Tier Choices – Kelvin Benjamin $7,100 vs CHI: As the 28th pick in the draft, with three touchdowns in his first four games, this rookie wideout is making a major impression on all the teams that selected before the Panthers last May. DeAndre Hopkins $7,200 at DAL: 16.9, 9.7, 14.6 and 14.9 are Hopkins FanDuel point totals through his first four games. There has been a changing of the fantasy guard in Houston and it seems like a lot of daily gamers have not yet caught on. Use this to your advantage this week, as Hopkins is an excellent differentiation play. Golden Tate $6,300 vs BUF: His production during the first month of the season has rewarded him with a promotion out of the Bargain Bin Baller tier. Do not shy away from having Tate on a couple rosters, as he has really racked up some production and has yet to find the end zone. I think that will happen this week against Buffalo.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Brian Quick $6,000 at PHI: Hopefully more than a few gamers will have forgotten about Quick after his bye week. The matchup against the Eagles is a good one, as they have allowed 10 passing scores already this season. Allen Robinson $5,000 vs PIT: The Jaguars have looked better with Blake Bortles under center, and that bodes well for Robinson, as Jacksonville will need all-hands-on-deck if they want to keep up with Pittsburgh in what I am projecting to be a sneaky high-scoring game.
Tight End
Once again Jimmy Graham $8,200 vs TB is the premium cash-game TE this week. Behind Door #2 we have mid-tier players with solid matchups like Delanie Walker $6,400 vs CLE and a surging Larry Donnell $6,200 vs ATL. Additionally, there are bargain options like Zach Ertz $5,400 vs STL coming off a tough outing in San Francisco last week and Travis Kelce $5,300, who was terrific on Monday against New England.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I really like Shayne Graham $4,500 vs TB and Robbie Gould $4,600 at CAR.
Defense / Special Teams (DST)
DST is another position that is very hard to predict, because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know when these may occur.
Generally I start at the bottom of the price list and work my way up until I find a defense that has a matchup that doesn’t completely scare me. This week I am focusing on the Detroit Lions $4,800 vs BUF, who will be turning to Kyle Orton, who has started just one game and played in only three others since the 2011 season.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Andrew Luck $10,000 vs. BAL: At this price it is hard to recommend Luck as a H2H option, because a mediocre game will sink your hopes with so much salary cap allocated to one player. In the large-field tournaments, however, I think we will see ownership of Luck in the 10-12% range. This is great since we have already seen that he has 300/4 upside every week, and with that low of an ownership rate, you will be far and away ahead of the rest of the pack.
Russell Wilson $8,100 at WAS: The Washington defense was exposed last week in primetime by the New York Giants. Wilson has many facets to his game and a 250/2 with a third score on a scramble are definitely in play.
Shaun Hill $5,000 and Austin Davis $7,200 at PHI: Whichever quarterback gets the start against Philly will be a nice outside-the-box option. If it is Hill, his minimum price will allow you to go crazy at every other position. If it is Davis, he will be off the radar for most daily gamers because he is not a household name. Again, don’t forget that the Eagles have given up the second most passing touchdowns (10) on the season.
Running Back
DeMarco Murray $9,000 vs HOU: Murray had another fantastic performance Sunday night against the Saints. He now has 99 carries through four games and is on pace for 432 total touches this season. At some point the workload will catch up with him. However, until that time he makes for a fantastic play in GPPs, because there is not as much downside if he falters. Remember, you need to nail pretty much every position to have your name appear on top of the leaderboard, so you want to go out in style.
Montee Ball $7,500 vs ARI: It is hard to believe that the Denver coaching staff didn’t spend the bye week figuring out how to get Monte Ball looking more like the budding star that finished strong last season. So many people have been disappointed with his results during his first three games that they will see this matchup with Arizona and just move on. Don’t be one of those people. You have to find a zig-zag play at a couple positions to have a shot at the brass ring. The key is to not go too crazy. This is a talented back with a coaching staff that understands they will need someone to help Peyton shoulder the offensive load over the next 14 weeks if the Broncos hope to make a deep playoff run.
Reggie Bush $7,000 vs BUF: There is a decent chance that Joique Bell will miss the game this week after having been diagnosed with a concussion. This will increase the number of looks that Bush will get in both the rushing and passing game, and he is a threat to go the distance anytime he gets the ball in space.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
Antonio Brown $9,000 at JAX: 20+ FanDuel points in three of his four games this season have Brown vying for top fantasy receiver honors. He is getting pricey, but continues to perform each week. My only fear in this matchup is that the Steelers get out to a comfortable lead and become content to focus on the rushing game.
Keenan Allen $7,000, Eddie Royal $7,300 and Malcolm Floyd $5,300 vs NYJ FINALLY!!!! There is the Keenan Allen fantasy ace from last year, ten catches for 135 yards were masterful. I don’t think he will see that volume each week, but that will be offset if he can just get in the end zone. Eddie Royal will be overlooked because of his price, but that means he will have a low ownership %, and Malcolm Floyd gets a mention since he is just $5,300. Last week this trio combined for 53 FanDuel points, and while that is not going to happen in every matchup, one or two of these guys will have you smiling each game for the rest of the season. You will just have to guess right on a week-to-week basis.
Lightning in a Bottle: There are a few boom/bust cheap options that warrant mentioning this week. Torrey Smith $5,300 at IND: Finally he scored, and at some point opposing teams are going to roll coverage towards the rejuvenated Steve Smith Sr., which should provide Torrey more room to operate. Rueben Randle $5,400 vs ATL: With other teams focusing on Victor Cruz, Randle will continue to get single coverage and should rise to the occasion in this matchup. Andrew Hawkins $5,300 vs TEN: Averaging 11 targets and seven catches a game, at some point Hawkins is going to find pay dirt and really make daily fantasy gamers take notice.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski $7,600 vs CIN is someone I always like to work into a couple GPP lineups because he is as good a bet as anyone in the NFL to have multi-TD games. However, Tom Brady has looked less than terrific this season and Gronk is also a major risk for an in-game injury, so I typically like to keep these type of risk/reward plays on my GPP entries. At this price, he will be highly owned in all formats this week on FanDuel.
This week for my off-the-board play I am looking at Austin Seferian-Jenkins $4,700 at NO. He looked solid in his return from injury with 3/44 on seven targets. The Bucs receiving corps just cannot buy a break, and it looks like Mike Evans may miss this contest. With the Saints focusing on Vincent Jackson, ASJ could do some damage in the redzone.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS or ask them in the comment section below
Good Luck Gamers!