NFL Week 6: H2H vs. GPP Plays
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats: head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large-field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs), where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 6 NFL contest period beginning with Sunday’s 13-game slate through Monday Night Football, where the San Francisco 49ers will be heading to St Louis for a division matchup against the Rams.
Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-Up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a 3-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Russell Wilson $8,400 vs DAL: Wilson looked phenomenal against Washington on Monday Night Football and he gets to head back home for another great matchup against a middling NFC East defense. Last week I had Wilson as one of my top GPP plays and this week he gets a promotion to my number one H2H option. I feel that Wilson has a floor of around 19 FanDuel points, which is great for his price. For him to achieve this level of production he would need 200 pyds, 2 TDs, 1 INT and 40 ryds, all of which are reasonable targets this week against Dallas.
Philip Rivers $9,100 at OAK: Wow, Rivers once again is a recommended option. Yes, his price keeps climbing, however, as his RBs keep succumbing to injury, he will need to continue carrying the offense. On the season he has just two INTs in 165 passing attempts, and in three of his last four games he has accounted for three TDs. I am projecting the Chargers to score 31 points this week, and Rivers should comfortably reach 275/3, which would put him at 22.6 FanDuel points, with potential upside.
Peyton Manning $10,200 at NYJ: Manning is the priciest QB on the board this week at $600 more than Aaron Rodgers and a full $1,100 over the previously mentioned Philip Rivers. Fortunately there are enough value plays available to us, so it is not too much of a stretch to get a solid lineup anchored by the best signal-caller going Sunday. With the Denver running backs facing the sixth-ranked Jets rushing defense (83ypg and just two rushing scores allowed) and down to the unproven C.J. Anderson and Juan Thompson, along with perennial scatback Ronnie Hillman, Manning should be good for 40+ attempts, and he has a solid 300/3 floor with the 400 yard and 4-TD upside as we saw last week.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position like Defense and Kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Matt Forte $9,000 at ATL: I wanted to go with Marshawn Lynch ($9,100 vs. DAL) as my top H2H running back for a second consecutive week, however, the sinking feeling I got when he was spotted during the first drive of the Monday Night game riding the stationary bike, is something I don’t want to experience again. Yes, he will be on some of my teams, however, it is Forte that I am nominating as the ace play this week. Averaging seven receptions per game has been a nice boost for Forte this season, and he has had 19.6+ FanDuel points in three of his five games. The Falcons are allowing 147 rushing yards per game and have already given up 10 scores on the ground. This makes Forte a key play this week.
Le’Veon Bell $8,600 at CLE: Bell gets a quick rematch against his Week 1 opponents who are allowing the third most rushing yards per game at 152.5. Le’Veon is holding strong and maintaining the number two spot on the rushing leaderboard. Though he has not visited the end zone since the first week, he is averaging a stellar five receptions and nearly 140 yards per game. Signs point to him continuing his excellent play, and he is my lock of the week for a touchdown.
Andre Williams $6,300 at PHI: with Rashad Jennings going down with a sprained MCL, it was no surprise seeing the Giants turn to rookie Andre Williams, who has seen his workload increase through the first five games this season. Philadelphia has allowed 132 rushing yards per game this season and with no real competition, Williams figures to have an excellent chance at 100yds and a score in this matchup on Sunday Night Football.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assembled your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Demaryius Thomas $9,100 at NYJ: After an amazing performance last week, it certainly looks like Thomas is back to full health and locked in with Peyton Manning. At this lofty price we need to see 19 FanDuel points, which would mean six catches, 100 yards and a TD from DT. I will be working that baseline into many of my rosters this week.
Mid-Tier Choices – Kelvin Benjamin $6,600 at CIN: A lot of gamers will have moved on after last week’s disappointing 3-catch, 38-yard effort. To that I say GREAT!!!! In his two games prior to last week, against Pittsburgh and at Baltimore, Benjamin had a combined 13 receptions 191 yards and 2 TDs. I think we will be rewarded with a double digit fantasy outing this week and am not worried one bit. Golden Tate $6,400 at MIN: He has averaged 13.4 FanDuel points per game this season and will likely be the featured target of Matthew Stafford this weekend with Calvin Johnson and the Detroit running backs all ailing.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Rueben Randle $5,900 at PHI: On the season Randle has just one less target than Victor Cruz. The matchup against the Eagles is a good one as they have allowed a league-high 13 passing scores already this season. James Jones $5,300 vs SD: With all the premium QB and RB plays, we are going to need to find several discount options. Leading the way this week is Jones, who will hopefully be overlooked coming off his bye week. Markus Wheaton $5,100 at CLE: With Cleveland focusing on stopping Antonio Brown, I like Wheaton as a sneaky under-the-radar play this week. Allen Robinson $5,400 at TEN: In his last three games Robinson has been targeted 10, 7 and 11 times and is averaging 5.7 receptions and 56 yards per game. Still waiting on his first score of the season, I think he finally gets one this week against Tennessee.
Tight End
There is a new premium cash-game TE this week. Congratulations to the very deserving Julius Thomas $8,200 at NYJ. Behind Door #2 we have mid-tier players with solid matchups like Delanie Walker $6,000 vs JAX and Martellus Bennett $5,900 at ATL coming off his first non-double digit fantasy week. Additionally, there are discount options like Owen Daniels $5,300 at TB, who is the main TE with Dennis Pitta out of commission and Clay Harbor $4,900 at TEN, who has had 12 targets in his last two games.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I really like Ryan Succop $4,800 vs JAX and once again will be looking to Robbie Gould $4,600 at ATL.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know when these may occur.
Generally I start at the bottom of the price list and work my way up until I find a defense that has a matchup that doesn’t completely scare me. This week I am mixing in the mid-priced selections of the Tennessee Titans $5,100 vs JAX, who have been a boost to every D/ST they have faced so far, as well as the Denver Broncos $5,000 at NYJ, who are in a good matchup against a feeble offense. While the Green Bay Packers $4,800 at MIA will not go for 22 FanDuel points again, the Dolphins do not strike fear into anyone with their game plans.
Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers $9,600 at MIA: Rodgers is arguably also a H2H option most weeks, I really am interested in going in a boom-bust approach and pairing him with BOTH Jordy Nelson $8,500 and Randall Cobb $8,200 this week for the full commemorative collectable set of Green Bay Packers.
Eli Manning $7,200 at PHI: Manning will be a very popular play against Philly, since it has become pretty obvious that they are a defense to pick on via the aerial game. Also, because the Eagles score a lot of points, opposing QBs have been having a field day with all the extra passing attempts. They have given up a league leading 13 passing TDs, so Manning should be good for a couple. You can mix and match Victor Cruz $6,800, Rueben Randle $5,900 and Larry Donnell $6,000 for added upside.
Matt Ryan $8,700 vs CHI: Much like Drew Brees, Matty Ice is more effective in his Dome sweet Dome. This game boasts one of the highest over/unders for the week at 53.5 points. As an added bonus, Ryan has two capable WRs in Julio Jones $9,000 and Roddy White $7,200 that you can play with him for double bonus scoring.
Nick Foles $8,100 vs NYG: Foles is going to be overlooked by a lot of gamers with his back-to-back “disappointing” outings, and I will be shocked if he has a greater than 12% ownership in most large field tournaments. One thing to keep in mind, the Eagles D/ST has scored FIVE touchdowns over the last two games. Do you think they will continue that trend? Give a couple of those to Foles and all of a sudden his numbers don’t look so bad. Pairing him with Jeremy Maclin $8,000 (58 targets in five games) and Zach Ertz $5,200 (out of sight, out of mind) leverages the upside potential.
Running Back
Andre Ellington $7,200 vs WAS: This is a wildcard play that I wouldn’t dream of using in my H2H games. Ellington was having a very pedestrian game until he got a late 81-yard TD pass from 3rd-string QB Logan Thomas. Washington is coming off a shellacking by the Seahawks on Monday Night Football and they have been less than inspiring the last couple weeks. Roll the dice with Ellington, as this is what GPPs are all about.
Lamar Miller $6,900 vs GB: If the Dolphins want to hang with the Packers this week, they are going to need a significant edge in time-of-possession. Fortunately Green Bay is allowing a whopping 163ypg on the ground. There is a good chance that Miller can go for 100 combined yards and 2 TDs if a couple things break his way.
DeMarco Murray $9,300 at SEA: Murray and the Cowboys are coming into the toughest place to play in the NFL, Seattle’s Century Link Field. With all the high priced QB/WR combinations I am looking at for my GPP lineups, I know that others will be going the same route. So here is a nice differentiation play, spending for a RB in a tougher matchup after a week of coach-speak talking about how they don’t want to over-use DeMarco Murray. If the Cowpokes want to have a chance for an upset, they are going to need to get lucky with turnovers, return TDs and a big game from Murray.
Rolling the Dice: There are several value options that are likely to be available Sunday with all of the Week 5 running back injuries. Depending on who is ruled out, this is the order in which I like these guys if they get the starting nod: Branden Oliver $6,200 at OAK: He will be a popular season-long waiver claim, so he is not going to go unnoticed this week. Darrin Reaves $5,400 at CIN: He will like get the most carries of anyone in this group. Ronnie Hillman $5,900 at NYJ: If he can pick up the blitz, Manning will keep him on the field, which means he should get a few dump-off passes and draw plays. Bishop Sankey $5,600 vs JAX: If he doesn’t get 20 touches this week, he won’t at any point the rest of the way.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP, it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
Antonio Brown $8,900 at CLE: Averaging 20 FanDuel points per game on the season, my only fear is that Joe Hayden limits his opportunities. Keep in mind though that Brown went for 5/116/1 in their meeting back in Week 1.
Combo Connections: As mentioned in previous weeks, I like to pair up my GPP quarterbacks with their top receiving option. This week I am doubling down, as I see several of the “secondary” receivers having low ownership %s.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski $7,600 at BUF: With Jimmy Graham on a bye, Gronk will be the most popular TE in all formats this week. I won’t have him on too many of my teams, because as previously mentioned, I am looking at several pricy QB/WR combinations.
This week for my off-the-board play, I am looking at Larry Donnell $6,000 at PHI, who disappointed everyone last week with his ZERO-catch performance, and Tim Wright $5,200 at BUF. With the Pats WR corps incredibly thin on talent, I think we will again see a lot of two-TE sets from the Patriots.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS
Good Luck Gamers!