NFL Week 7 Lines and Betting Picks 2020
Editor’s note: Look for a Sunday update, with more news and picks, near the bottom of this article.
NFL Week 7 betting lines are moving fast at online sports betting sites even though we still have two Week 6 games left — Chiefs vs. Bills and Cardinals vs. Cowboys — Monday night.
On Sunday we saw the Broncos, as double-digit underdogs, host and stun the Patriots, the Steelers dominate the Browns, the Bucs defense wreak havoc on Aaron Rodgers, and the 49ers somewhat return to form with a much needed win over the Los Angeles Rams.
In terms of NFL betting trends from last week, home teams went 6-6 ATS and the Over/Under was 4-8, moving the season-to-date records to 41-48-1 and 49-40-1, respectively.
I continue to give road teams the benefit of the doubt more so in 2020 than I would in a normal season, but the recent weekly Over/Under records are most telling. Through the first four weeks of the season, points soared and the Over/Under was 37-25. Points continue to soar but oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly. In Week 5, the Over still came out ahead but only by one game, and then this week, the Under bettors had their best showing yet. As a general rule, I’m treading carefully when it comes to betting on totals until further notice.
Now let’s take a look at each Week 7 betting line compared to its lookahead line as we scour for early value at online sports betting sites.
NFL Week 7 Betting Lines
Early NFL Week 7 Lines and Betting Picks
The Jets had one of their closest games of the season in Week 1, losing to the Bills by only 10 points. In hindsight, that probably should’ve been in a warning sign not to lay the points when the Bills traveled to Tennesee last Tuesday. The Jets are clearly the worst team in the NFL. I think the Chiefs get the best of Buffalo Monday night, but I don’t see this spread get much shorter. I’m betting on the Bills -10.5.
Early NFL Week 7 Betting Pick: Bills -10.5
Sticking with the theme of Monday Night Football teams, I’m instantly backing the Chiefs -8.5. The Patriots were just double-digit favorites hosting the Broncos. And remember, I’m not all that concerned about home-field advantage. The Chiefs will end up at least 10-point favorites, where the lookahead line was before the Broncos upset the Patriots, after they beat the Bills tonight.
Early NFL Week 7 Betting Pick: Chiefs -8.5
This is primed to be one of the most popular game stacks on the Week & NFL DFS slate. Lucky for Matt Ryan and the Falcons, Julio Jones looks like Julio Jones again. The Falcons finally have a W. I expect them to snag another one on Sunday by more than three points.
Early NFL Week 7 Betting Pick: Falcons -3
I bet against the Cleveland Browns last week. To no one’s surprise, I still find Baker Mayfield and the Browns suspect. The Bengals threatened the Browns in Week 2, and have been competitive against other teams not named the Ravens. I’m not taking a position on this yet, but I do know I have little interest in betting on Cleveland.
These NFL Week 7 betting lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook, accurate as of 5 AM Monday, October 19, 2020. All NFL odds are subject to change.
Sunday Update
Broncos vs. Chiefs
I was wrong about the Chiefs and Broncos game. The line is down to Chiefs -7, which I still like. The reason for the line change is because of a snowstorm heading into Denver on Sunday. As a result, the total has fallen from 48-44. This is probably an overreaction on both accounts. Snow generally doesn’t have as big of an impact on passing games as people think. The man factor is wind and temperature. The last time these two teams played in the snow was December 15, 2019. Mahomes threw for 340 yards, 142 of which went to tight end Travis Kelce (look for this prop). The Chiefs won 24-3. It was 25 degrees that day with 5-10 mph winds. Kevin Roth has the full weather report. I will be adding to my earlier bet with Chiefs -7. I think there’s probably some value on the Over, but my main hesitation has little to do with the weather; no, it’s the Broncos offense I’m worried about. If it falls a little bit more, then I’ll be ready to jump on it.
Packers vs. Texans
The Packers need to bounce back against the Texans but it might be tough without their starting left tackle, running back, and one of the league’s best corner backs. I think the total is a few points too high. The Packers led the league in scoring Week 1-5 but their schedule certainly helped them. They are one of the league’s slowest paced teams, and the totals are a bit inflated after Overs dominated the first month of NFL betting. I like both the Texans +3.5 and Under 57 in this spot.
Week 7 Line Updates
| Week 7 Line (As of 10/19) | Lookahead Line Comparison | Betting Picks | Sunday Additions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants at Eagles -6, O/U 45.5 | Eagles -7 | ||
| Bills at Jets +10.5 | Jets +10.5 | Bills -10.5 | |
| Browns at Bengals +3.5, O/U 51.5 | Bengals +5 | ||
| Panthers at Saints -7.5, O/U 51.5 | Saints -7 | ||
| Cowboys at Redskins +3.5 | Redskin +4.5 | ||
| Lions at Falcons -3, O/U 56.5 | Falcons -1 | Falcons -3 | |
| Packers at Texans +3, O/U 56 | Texans +3 | Texans +3.5/Under 57 | |
| Steelers at Titans +1.5 O/U 52.5 | Titans -1 | ||
| Seahawks at Cardinals +3.5 | Cardinals +3.5 | ||
| Jaguars at Chargers -8, O/U 48.5 | Chargers -7 | ||
| Chiefs at Broncos +8.5 | Broncos +10 | Chiefs -8.5 | Chiefs -7 |
| 49ers at Patriots -3.5 | Patriots -5.5 | ||
| Buccaneers at Raiders +2.5, O/U 53.5 | Raiders +2.5 | ||
| Bears at Rams -6.5 | Rams -6.5 |
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More NFL Week 7 Betting Tips
Check back as we update this article with more Week 7 lines, game previews, news and betting picks between now and Sunday. In the meantime, check out notable player injuries from Week 6.
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